| | | | |  | | By Kate Davidson and Sam Sutton | | | Editor's note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. Some heat is finally coming off the U.S. labor market. That's a welcome sign for Federal Reserve officials, who want to see evidence that higher interest rates are prompting employers to scale back hiring plans and wage increases — a key ingredient in lowering inflation, as the Fed sees it. But it also means we're getting closer to the kind of weak job growth that will be challenging for President Joe Biden's administration to explain to voters. Let's review: The Labor Department said Tuesday that job vacancies fell sharply in August, with openings declining to about 10 million, from 11.2 million in July. That's the biggest drop since April 2020 and also marked another data surprise — economists had predicted no change in the number. Layoffs also inched up to their highest level in 18 months, though they're still historically low. Why does it matter? Fed officials have made clear they want to see signs of slowing inflation before they pull back on their aggressive rate increases. But lately, they've also leaned into the idea that they need to see changes in the labor market, too — that is, a better balance between the supply and demand for available workers. After a brief increase in openings in July, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, clearly showed they're headed in the right direction.
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A view of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | "There were likely a few cheers in the Eccles Building when these numbers were released," said Indeed Hiring Lab's Nick Bunker, referring to the Fed's main offices in Washington. Bunker added that it's "still very much a job seekers' labor market, just one with fewer advantages for workers than a few months ago." Translation: We may have a ways to go yet before we see a worrisome dropoff in hiring. (The all-time high for job openings prior to Covid was 7.5 million, Amherst Pierpont's Stephen Stanley noted.) What does it mean for Friday? "This is an interesting table setter in front of Friday's September employment release," Stanley said of the JOLTS data. Economists expect that employers added 275,000 jobs in September, which would be a step down from the 315,000 added in August. Given the data surprises we've seen during the pandemic, however, each jobs report brings the possibility of a much steeper-than-expected drop. Will this be the month? That would be unfortunate timing for Democrats — it's the second-to-last jobs report before the midterm elections, and time's running out. IT'S WEDNESDAY — It's also officially curl-up-with-a-good-book season. We need your best recommendations, plus tips, story ideas and feedback: kdavidson@politico.com and ssutton@politico.com.
| | A message from American Bankers Association: Phishing and other financial scams cost consumers $5.8 billion in 2021, according to the FTC. America's banks want to change that. #BanksNeverAskThat is a national campaign empowering customers to spot bogus bank communications, including payment app scams. Join our effort to help Americans protect their money at BanksNeverAskThat.com | | | | | | ADP Employment report out at 8:15 a.m. … Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 4 p.m. $31 TRILLION — NYT's Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley: "America's gross national debt exceeded $31 trillion for the first time on Tuesday , a grim financial milestone that arrived just as the nation's long-term fiscal picture has darkened amid rising interest rates." THIS NEWS CYCLE HAS A MUSK — NYT's Kate Conger and Lauren Hirsch: "Elon Musk, in a surprise move that adds another twist to a monthslong drama that has preoccupied Silicon Valley, Wall Street and Washington, proposed a deal with Twitter … that could bring to an end an acrimonious legal fight between the billionaire and the social media company." — Conger and Hirsch also profile Twitter's board chairman Bret Taylor, who's played a key role in negotiations: "Co-workers and confidants describe Mr. Taylor as the quiet antidote to the impulsive and norm-shattering Mr. Musk. He is methodical and deeply experienced in steering complex business deals, eight people who have worked alongside him said … 'He's very systematic, and he doesn't let emotional stuff move him off the plan too much,' said John Lilly, a partner at Greylock Partners." OIL PRICE CAP — FT's James Politi: "The US Treasury has estimated the G7's plan to cap the price of Russian oil exports could yield $160bn in annual savings for the 50 largest emerging markets, as Washington insists the scheme it has championed will keep a lid on energy costs around the world. The analysis was developed ahead of the IMF and World Bank's annual meetings next week, where high energy costs triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine will take centre stage as one of the heaviest burdens on the global economy."
| | | | JOIN NEXT WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA: President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | WILL YESTERDAY'S JOLTS REPORT BE ENOUGH? — WSJ's Justin Lahart: "Maybe with a bit less competition for workers, the wage pressures that Fed policy makers worry will lead to entrenched inflation will abate some. That in turn could lead to an outcome in which the Fed doesn't feel compelled to raise rates to the point that the economy is rapidly shedding jobs and in a clear recession." MONETARY POLICY BY POLL — Bloomberg's Claire Ballentine and Charlie Wells: "The latest in the long list of things Americans are divided on? Interest rate hikes . Half of the country wants to tame inflation quickly, even if it means a recession, according to an exclusive study from the Harris Poll. The other half would prefer avoiding a recession, regardless of inflation ticking higher."
| | | | A message from American Bankers Association:   | | | | | | DALIO BOWS OUT — Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker: "After 12 years of trying, Ray Dalio is finally letting go. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates has given up control of the firm he built into the world's largest hedge fund, entrusting its future and $150 billion in assets to a younger generation of leaders with their own ideas about investing." SOFTENING — Bloomberg's Spencer Soper: "Amazon.com Inc. has paused hiring for corporate positions in its retail business." SURPRISE — Reuters's Laura Sanicola: "U.S. gasoline prices have been steadily falling from peaks reached in June due to high demand and tight global refining supply. But in some regions, the average price is beginning to rise again, prompting concern from the Biden administration." LARGEST IN THE U.S. — WSJ's Asa Fitch and Dean Seal: "Micron Technology Inc. has agreed to invest as much as $100 billion to build a semiconductor-manufacturing campus in Upstate New York, adding to a wave of chip-making plans in the U.S. as Washington tries to boost domestic manufacturing of those critical components." SPEAKING OF TECH JOBS — Bloomberg's Akayla Gardner: "President Joe Biden will head to the New York area Thursday for a jobs event hosted by IBM Corp. and a pair of fundraisers ahead of November's midterm elections."
| | | THEY DID IT ALL FOR THE OOKI — Coindesk's Danny Nelson: "Popular decentralized crypto exchange Sushi is mulling a revamping of its legal structure, an effort with potentially greater potency amid increased regulatory scrutiny of crypto projects governed by so-called decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO)."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | Blake Major has joined American Equity as senior government relations partner. He most recently was director of grassroots and communications at MassMutual and is an AIG alum. — Daniel Lippman
| | | Liz Truss said she has yet to decide whether welfare payments in the UK should rise in line with inflation, an issue that threatens to spark another bitter dispute with disgruntled Conservative members of Parliament. — Bloomberg's Joe Mayes 'Throughout Asia, from the Vietnamese dong to the Philippine peso, currencies are tumbling to record lows, the type of widespread currency weakness not seen since the 1997 financial crisis." — NYT's Daisuke Wakabayashi and Ben Dooley
| | A message from American Bankers Association: "What's the meaning of life?" "Is a hotdog a sandwich?" While fun to debate, these are two questions a bank would never ask a customer. Banks also never ask for an account PIN or password in a text or an email—and never ask you to send money from a payment app like Zelle.
Scammers, however, ask exactly that. Thousands of Americans fall victim every day to phishing emails, texts and calls from sophisticated criminals posing as your bank. These phishing scams and other fraud cost consumers $5.8 billion in 2021, according to the FTC. And the threat is only growing.
America's banks are empowering consumers to fight back against phishing. #BanksNeverAskThat is a nationwide effort that's stopping fraudsters in their tracks and helping every bank customer spot scams—now during National Cybersecurity Awareness Month, and all year long.
Join the fight by visiting BanksNeverAskThat.com | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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