⛽ New Saudi strategy

Plus: Herschel Walker's "redemption" pitch | Wednesday, October 05, 2022

Open in app View in browser     Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Oct 05, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 966 words ... 3.5 minutes.     1 big thing: Biden's new Saudi strategy President Biden fist-bumps with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on July 15. Photo: Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images   President Biden has tried to convince the Saudis to pump more oil with honey. Now he's trying vinegar, Axios' Alayna Treene and Hans Nichols report. Why it matters: With a new warning that the White House might support legislation targeting OPEC+ in Congress, Biden crossed a symbolic threshold — and sent a clear signal to the Saudis that he's prepared to escalate. For some Democrats, he needs to go further: "President Biden ... should call the King himself," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told Axios. "He should say you have five days to reverse your decision. If not, I am going to work with Congress to pass a ban on supplying air parts to your Air Force. ... We will not be bullied by a third-rate power that is committing human rights atrocities." The big picture: Biden is now at odds with the two entities — Big Oil companies and Big Oil countries — that have the power to solve his most pressing domestic political problem: rising prices at the pump. Biden has consistently blamed oil and gas companies for high prices and used a visit to FEMA headquarters last week to revive his warning: "Do not — do not — do not use this storm [Hurricane Ian] as an excuse to raise gasoline prices or gouge the American public," he said. Driving the news: Administration officials were scrambling over the weekend with a last-minute lobbying effort to dissuade OPEC+ from lowering its production targets, reportedly describing the prospect as a "total disaster." That effort failed and OPEC+ today announced its 2 million barrels a day cut, scheduled for next month. The White House fired back with a statement designed to suggest Biden would reverse course and support bipartisan legislation — so-called NOPEC — that would make the oil-producing cartel legally liable for any price collusion. Between the lines: While some Democrats privately suspect Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of engineering the cut to hurt their party in November, White House officials don't go as far. Khalid Aljabri, a Saudi dissident, alleged a direct link: "This unprecedented cut is nothing short of a naked assault on democracy and election interference to harm Biden and the Democrats." "I think it's time for a wholesale re-evaluation of the U.S. alliance with Saudi Arabia," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a top critic of the Saudis, told CNBC yesterday. The intrigue: The White House has other cards to play. But all of them are controversial. A potential nuclear deal with Iran could bring more than a million barrels of oil a day onto international markets. The Biden administration can also turn to Venezuela: The Wall Street Journal scooped this evening that Biden is preparing to scale down sanctions on the Maduro regime to allow Chevron to resume its activities. Share this story.     2. ⛽ Google Trends: Gas price searches climb Note: Data not available from Aug. 8 to Sept. 4, 2022; Data: Google Trends; Chart: Jacque Schrag and Will Chase/Axios Google searches related to gas prices are on the rise again after plummeting from a June peak of No. 3 in our midterms issue tracker, Axios' Stef Kight writes. Why it matters: The Biden administration moved aggressively in its efforts to bring down gas prices from a record high over the summer and was eager to take credit when they fell back down to earth. The latest Google Trends data indicates Americans are beginning to pay attention to the rise in prices again — even before OPEC+ made its decision to cut oil production. Explore the dashboard.     3. 💸 House Dems on offense Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   17 House Democratic challengers raised more than $1 million in the third quarter, including six who raked in more than $1.5 million, Axios' Hans Nichols has learned. Why it matters: House Democrats still see a path to retaining the majority — and it involves going on offense. The strong individual fundraising totals will put GOP incumbents and open-seat nominees on notice that the campaign's final five weeks will be a tooth-and-nail scrap. By comparison, 11 Republican challengers raised more than $1 million last quarter, six fewer than their Democratic counterparts. ⚡ Latest: Cook Political Report changed its ratings today for 10 House races — seven toward Democrats and three toward Republicans. Keep reading.     A message from Axios Subscribe to Axios Communicators     Get the latest topics and trends impacting the way leaders, organizations and employers communicate. Why it matters: Axios Communicators will help inform your strategy and offer insight into the rapidly evolving world of sharing and receiving information. Subscribe for free     4. 📺 Herschel Walker's "redemption" pitch Screenshot: "Grace" In Herschel Walker's first new ad since the report alleging he paid for a woman's abortion in 2009, the Republican nominee for Georgia's Senate seat attacks Sen. Raphael Warnock for running "a nasty, dishonest campaign": As everyone knows, I had a real battle with mental health — even wrote a book about it. And by the grace of God, I've overcome it. Warnock's a preacher who doesn't tell the truth. He doesn't even believe in redemption. I'm Herschel Walker, saved by grace. Why it matters: Walker has vigorously denied the abortion allegations, and the ad appears more directed at addressing a history of violent behavior that's come under renewed scrutiny as a result of his own son's public criticism. It's at least the second time since the report, following an appearance on Fox News this morning, that Walker has claimed Warnock does not believe in "redemption." Warnock, a pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, has declined to comment on the abortion allegations but tweeted a promotion today for his debate against Walker next Friday at 7pm ET. Zoom out: Walker reported today he raised a record $12 million in the third quarter, less than half of the $26.3 million brought in by Warnock.     5. 🌀 Pics du jour Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and his wife, Casey (left), tour Hurricane Ian damage with President Biden and first lady Jill Biden. Photo: Evan Vucci/AP Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis welcomed President Biden to Fort Myers with cool pleasantries today, as the two rivals put aside politics to tour the damage from Hurricane Ian. Photo: Evan Vucci/AP "We have very different political philosophies, but we've worked hand in glove," Biden said at a briefing. "In dealing with this crisis, we've been in complete lockstep."     A message from Axios Subscribe to Axios Communicators     Get the latest topics and trends impacting the way leaders, organizations and employers communicate. Why it matters: Axios Communicators will help inform your strategy and offer insight into the rapidly evolving world of sharing and receiving information. Subscribe for free   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. 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