Wednesday, October 5, 2022

⛔Buyers Beware -- It’s Not a Pivot Point Yet

Good morning. Stocks are now up about 5 percent in the first two trading days of October. That's...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Stocks are now up about 5 percent in the first two trading days of October. That's recovered nearly half the losses from September, when the S&P 500 shed a full 9 percent. While stocks are still in bear market territory, traders are looking at hints that the global race to tighten monetary conditions may be ending.

It's possible that such a trend is starting to show in some places. But for the Fed, the player running the world's reserve currency, it isn't. While some countries may intervene here and there to keep a collapse from kicking off, like England's move to buy their government bonds last week, it's not a time to get completely bullish yet. Historically, September is the worst month of the year for stocks. But all the big market selloff stories, from 1929 to 1987 to 2008, take place in October. Stay cautious.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,316.32 +2.80%
S&P 3,790.93 +3.06%
NASDAQ 11,176.41 +3.34%
*As of market close
Markets soared again on Tuesday, closing near highs of the day.
Oil rose 3.1 percent, closing at $86.26 per barrel.
Gold jumped 1.9 percent, last going for about $1,734 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies generally rose, with Bitcoin at $20,202 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Consumer Brand Is Priced for a Growth Move Ahead
Consumers tend to find companies they like, and then stick with them. That allows successful consumer companies to build an ecosystem of products, including those that need to be upgraded every few years.

Investors who target these companies in a market downturn can fare well thanks to lower prices. And they can also get in ahead of a new piece of consumer tech, which may give shares a quick lift higher.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI)
Douglas Alexander, CEO at United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI), recently added 2,932 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 5.4 percent, and came to a total cost of $99,600.

This is the second buy form the CEO this year, after a 3,438 share buy back in March. Otherwise, company insiders have largely been sellers in the past three years, with the last insider buying window occurring back in early 2020.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Block (SQ)
Shares of payment processing company Block (SQ) are down 75 percent from last year's peak. One trader is betting on an oversold bounce higher for the stock from here.

That's based on the November $55 calls. With 44 days until expiration, 7,752 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 193, for a 40-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $7.13 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
OPEC+ Meets in Vienna

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other affiliates are meting in Vienna. The group is expected to announce a cut in output. That would likely raise oil prices in the short-run. From a peak of around $125 earlier this year, oil broke under $80 last week before it started to rebound.
Job Openings Dropped By 1.1 million in August

Total job openings totaled 10.05 million for the month of August. That's a 10 percent drop from the 11.17 million reported in July, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is an early sign that the labor market may be getting tighter. The ratio of job openings to workers has shrank from about 2 to 1 to now 1.67 to 1.
UN Agency Warns on Central Bank Tightening

The United Nations Conference on Trade Development has warned that the aggressive moves by central banks to raise interest rates and tighten inflation is hurting developing countries as the US dollar has soared to multi-decade highs. The agency reports this could cause more harm globally than the financial crisis or the Covid crash if not reversed.
Europe Adopts Digital Services Act

Lawmakers in the European Union have approved an overhaul to the EU's ecommerce rules, the first major update since the year 2000. The new Digital Services Act lays out rules to streamline the removal of illegal content, and provide increased accountability, among other changes.
Retail Vacancies Down as More Stores Are Opening than Closing

Vacancies for the US retail market dropped to 6.1 percent in the second quarter. That's the lowest level in 15 years. Meanwhile, asking rents are 15 percent higher than 5 years ago, as a sign that brick-and-mortar stores are enjoying a resurgence following the pandemic.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
DISH  8.258%
KR  7.103%
BKR 5.944%
TTWO 5.88%
FCX 5.307%
BOTTOM
ENPH 3.418%
NLOK 2.116%
HUM 1.279%
MOH 1.099%
MCK 0.986%

Quote of the Day
We could see a rally because these fourth-quarter midterm election years are the second-best average quarter and also have the second-highest frequency of advance. The best one is the next one, meaning the first quarter of the third year. We could be surprised with at least a near-term upward movement.
- Sam Stovall, CFRA chief investment strategist, on why the market could fare well this quarter, after declining for the past three quarters in a row, with the first quarter of 2023 likely to be a strong performer as well.

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