| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Wednesday. For your radar — While Florida is still dealing with the fallout of Hurricane Ian, one new poll suggests that Republicans — including Gov. Ron DeSantis — could be on their way to a significant sweep in the November elections. Double digits — Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy on Wednesday released survey results that showed DeSantis with a commanding 11-point lead over Democrat Charlie Crist: 52 percent to 41 percent. Also big margins — That same poll showed all three Republicans seeking Cabinet posts also with double-digit leads: Attorney General Ashley Moody up over Aramis Ayala, 50 percent to 37 percent; Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis leads Adam Hattersley, 47 percent to 37 percent; and Senate President Wilton Simpson with a clear advantage over Naomi Esther Blemur in the agriculture commissioner race, 47 percent to 34 percent. A bit of history — Switching back to the governor's race, let's put that into context. DeSantis beat Andrew Gillum in 2018 by more than 32,000 votes, or about 0.4 percent. Then-Gov. Rick Scott beat Crist by roughly 1 percent in 2014. If you roll back all the way to 2006, Crist — when he was a Republican — defeated Rep. Jim Davis by a 7-point margin. The last time a candidate for governor won by double digits was in 2002, when Jeb Bush won a second term by nearly 13 percent over Bill McBride. Positive territory — This most recent poll — which was wrapped up just as Hurricane Ian was descending on the state — shows that DeSantis has a 55 percent job approval rating. Brad Coker, with Mason-Dixon, does note that number could change depending on Florida's recovery from the deadly storm. By the numbers — The breakdown of DeSantis' numbers shows that he has a commanding lead among white voters, males and older voters. Crist does have an 8-point advantage with Hispanic voters and a slight lead among female voters. The incumbent governor also has a double-digit edge — 52 percent to 39 percent — with unaffiliated voters. What's coming — Florida's electorate has been undergoing a significant shift in recent years, a trend that Democrats have generally waved away even as the voter registration showed that Florida was transforming into a red state. National Democratic groups, however, have basically written off the state and have only put nominal amounts of money into the state. This poll is just another sign that the GOP is likely to have wins up and down the board and won't just win the governor's mansion, but could expand its grip on the Legislature as well. — WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is expected to be in southwest Florida where he will meet with President Joe Biden to discuss Hurricane Ian. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | JOIN NEXT WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA: President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | |  | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | SITUATIONAL AWARENESS — It's been one week since Hurricane Ian ripped into Florida and slightly more than 320,000 home and businesses remain without power, according to new figures posted this morning by the Florida Public Service Commission. The death toll continues to grow. Official numbers from the state released on Tuesday evening said there had been 72 fatalities associated with the storm, including 46 deaths in Lee County. Also of note, insurers have reported more than $2 billion in estimated insured losses and more than 282,000 claims. That number is also expected to grow. THE TOLL — "The last moments of Hurricane Ian's victims, told in grim details by Florida medical examiners," by USA Today Network-Florida's John Kennedy: "A 96-year-old Charlotte County man found trapped under a car in high water is the oldest victim of Hurricane Ian's deadly course through Southwest Florida, whose wrath is now revealed in a grim spreadsheet compiled by the state's Medical Examiners' Commission. The 68-person list of confirmed dead is certain to grow, as rescue and recovery efforts continue in areas battered by the Category 4 storm and the flooding it spawned after it made landfall last Wednesday near Cayo Costa on Florida's Gulf coast. But in spare, jarring detail, the last moments of the lives of Floridians caught in one of nation's most powerful storms is revealed in the medical examiners' report — though victims are not identified by name." — "Hurricane Ian's death toll rises as crews in Florida go door to door in search for survivors in decimated neighborhoods," by CNN's Nouran Salahieh — "72 hours before landfall: What FL officials warned, and when, ahead of Hurricane Ian," by Miami Herald's Tess Riski
|  A road is completely filled with a tall pile of debris from destroyed beachfront homes and businesses, two days after the passage of Hurricane Ian, in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., Sept. 30, 2022 | AP | HAPPENING TODAY — Biden and DeSantis will test their accord during Florida visit, by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: The most public example of their truce will come when Gov. Ron DeSantis will brief President Joe Biden in Fort Myers on the disaster recovery efforts, their first such meeting since the president and governor held a joint event in 2021 in the aftermath of the Surfside condo collapse in south Florida that claimed 98 lives. "They're going to talk about what else are the needs in Florida to get to a place of recovery, to get to a place of rebuilding," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Tuesday. "This is going to be, as you said, above politics." Response — Christian Ziegler, vice chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said it's not surprising that DeSantis has worked well with the federal government. "Saving lives, protecting families, rebuilding homes and opening up our economy are bigger than petty politics," Ziegler said. Crist weighs in — Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee challenging DeSantis in November, has slowly started to ramp up criticism of DeSantis over the governor's handling of the storm, including questioning whether or not DeSantis should have pressed local authorities in Lee County to order evacuations sooner than they did. But Crist said DeSantis is making the right decision to set aside his differences with Biden right now. | 
Before the hurricane, Ron DeSantis clashed with the president over everything from vaccine and mask mandates to immigration policy. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | 'IT SHOOTS OUT' — "Ian's sewage geysers into neighborhoods, gushes into environment," by Orlando Sentinel's Kevin Spear: "The sewage overflowing from a manhole in residential Azalea Park has settled into a predictable pattern since Ian caused widespread damage to sewers. By day, it's a babbling brook. By evening, as cooking, showering and washing picks up, a flow of another sort erupts. 'It's a geyser,' said Larry Kidd, a 35-year resident of Yucatan Drive, which fronts Yucatan Park and is a route for walking to school. 'Every time someone flushes their toilet in Azalea Park, it shoots out right here. I can't believe the manhole cover hasn't blown off.'" — Floridians scrambling to restore bridges to cut-off communities, by POLITICO's Alex Daugherty — "Floridians endure slow wait for power knocked out by Ian ," by The Associated Press' Rebecca Santana — PSC approves utility storm hardening plans as Ian recovery continues, by POLITICO's Bruce Ritchie BIG PICTURE — "Florida leaders rejected major climate laws. Now they're seeking storm aid," by The New York Times' Christopher Flavelle and Jonathan Weisman: "Hurricane Ian's wrath made clear that Florida faces some of the most severe consequences of climate change anywhere in the country. But the state's top elected leaders opposed the most significant climate legislation to pass Congress — laws to help fortify states against, and recover from, climate disasters, and confront their underlying cause: the burning of fossil fuels. Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott voted against last year's bipartisan infrastructure law, which devotes some $50 billion to help states better prepare for events like Ian, because they said it was wasteful. And in August, they joined every fellow Republican in the Senate to oppose a new climate law that invests $369 billion in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the largest such effort in the country's history."
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | WORK AROUND — Storm-battered Florida may need major election fixes before November, by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: Less than six weeks before Election Day, Florida officials are poised to engineer a major rewiring of the midterm elections as the state continues to face the devastating effects of Hurricane Ian. Widespread damage caused by the storm is leading to a litany of potential problems, ranging from a lack of functional polling sites to a potential shortage of workers on Election Day. The last day to register to vote is Oct. 11, a week away, while early voting is scheduled to begin in many southwest Florida counties on Oct. 24. "You've got to make sure that people have access to the ballot. And you've got to make sure there's no fraud," said Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) in an interview. Yet the task ahead for election officials is enormous. FALLOUT — Ian destroyed parts of GOP-leaning Lee County. But Republicans are confident ahead of November, by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: Florida is experiencing a similar situation now with Hurricane Ian, which caused widespread damage in Southwest Florida, one of the state's most politically conservative regions. Republicans in Lee County are assessing how the catastrophic storm will affect turnout and hope Ian isn't an October surprise that could give underdog Democrats a boost. The county provided 62,000 voters for Gov. Ron DeSantis four years ago, and neighboring Collier County delivered another 50,000, the governor's third biggest margin of any county in the state. AMID OUTCRY, SENATE DEMS DEFEND MAILER — Senate Democrats, fighting to hold on to the North Florida seat held by incumbent Sen. Loranne Ausley, are defending a mailer that depicted her Republican opponent — Corey Simon — on a shooting target and also put target sights on photos of children on the back. The mailer contends Simon is an "extremist" who will turn "our schools into shooting ranges" because of his opposition to gun control. Simon, the former head of Volunteer Florida and a former star football player, is Black and the decision to put his photo on a shooting target has been decried as relying on a racist trope. (There's also the reminder that Democrats nationally have railed against campaign materials that placed gun sights or targets on opponents.) The mailer — which was paid for by the political committee led by Senate Minority Leader Lauren Book — hit mailboxes slightly more than a week ago. Tallahassee's Rev. R.B. Holmes, a long-running influential pastor who has backed Democratic and Republican candidates, told City & State's Jim Rosica that the mailer was "outrageous and outlandish" and that it had "subtle racist implications." Incoming Senate President Kathleen Passidomo — who is leading the Senate Republican effort to knock out Ausley — called on Book to denounce the mailer. "The hypocrisy of these Florida Democrats who claim to support Black lives, yet yield to their worst instincts simply because they don't agree with him politically, says a lot more about their character than it ever could about Corey Simon," she said in a statement. Ausley — during a debate with Simon on Monday — contended she had nothing to do with the mailer and that it was put out by the Florida Democratic Party. Yet a spokesperson for the Book-led committee had also told outlets that it had been approved by Ausley and the two other candidates whose names are listed in the disclaimer on the mailer. Clare VanSusteren, a spokesperson for Book and Senate Democrats, did not respond to a question asking about the discrepancy. VanSusteren did provide a statement from both the Senate Democrats and Ausley that contended that Republicans were trying to "divert attention." "My opponent Corey Simon and the Republican Party have views on guns that are dangerous to North Florida. Because of this fact, they are diverting the conversation to a poorly done mailer," Ausley stated. "Meanwhile, parents are afraid to send their kids to school and, as we learned in debate, Corey Simon won't tell the voters one thing he will do to change that." The statement from Book's committee added that Passidomo and Senate Republicans were trying to turn attention from "Republicans' own racist policies that erase Black history from our classrooms, trample voting rights, threaten freedom of speech, and put allegiance to the NRA above the safety of our kids." ON HOLD — " Florida gubernatorial debate postponed due to Hurricane Ian, will be held later in October," by WPEC: "The gubernatorial debate between Governor Ron DeSantis and challenger Charlie Crist hosted by WPEC-TV is being postponed due to the continuing recovery from the devastation left by Hurricane Ian. The debate, which was originally scheduled for October 12 in Fort Pierce, is the only scheduled debate between the two candidates. The move to postpone the debate is meant to ensure all Floridians have an opportunity to adequately recover from the storm and watch the debate." — " DeSantis has banked more than $100M. Why is GOP governors group giving him even more?" by McClatchy D.C.'s Ben Wieder — " Naomi Blemur 'postpones' Ag Commish campaign, cites Ian relief effort," by Florida Politics' Renzo Downey — "The Florida money connection to Dr. Oz in the high-stakes Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race ," by Florida Bulldog's Dan Christensen
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | AS THE PAGES TURN — Trump asks Supreme Court to intervene in Mar-a-Lago documents case , by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein, Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu: Former President Donald Trump is asking the Supreme Court to intervene in the fight over records the FBI seized from his Florida home as part of an investigation into alleged retention of classified information, theft of government documents and obstruction of justice. Lawyers for Trump asked Justice Clarence Thomas on Tuesday to issue an emergency order that would restore an outside reviewer's authority over about 100 documents with classification markings found at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate during the Aug. 8 search.
| | THE GUNSHINE STATE | | REBUTTAL — "Expert: School shooter faked fetal alcohol symptoms," by The Associated Press' Terry Spencer: "Prosecutors spent several hours Tuesday trying to prove Florida school shooter Nikolas Cruz purposely did poorly on tests administered to see if he suffers from fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, the primary reason his attorneys say he murdered 17 people four years ago. But after presenting dozens of charts showing the results of IQ tests and other examinations and long explanations of averages and standard deviations that even had the judge joking she understood why some jurors were drinking strong Cuban coffee, assistant prosecutor Jeff Marcus pulled his trump card. He turned to the simplest test given to Cruz: How fast can the confessed killer tap his dominant left index finger?"
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | QUESTIONS — "Florida asks student athletes about their periods. Why some find it 'shocking' post-Roe," by Palm Beach Post's Katherine Kokal: "But all female athletes in the state also are asked to report their history of menstrual periods: When they got their first period, how many weeks pass between periods and when they had their last one, to name a few. The information is reported on athletes' annual physical form, which they are required to fill out with a physician and turn in to their school's athletic director. The questions have been put to students across the state for two decades, most often on a written form on paper, but this fall when some districts took the form to a digital platform kept by a third party, parents and doctors began raising red flags." TO COURT — "Jury sides with UM in legal fight over Shalala's firing of No. 2 exec at med school," by Miami Herald's Jay Weaver: "The University of Miami won a major legal battle Tuesday against a former top medical school official who accused ex-president Donna Shalala of firing him a decade ago in retaliation for ordering an independent investigation of excessive billing in an organ-testing lab at the school's renowned transplant institute. Former Chief Operating Officer Jonathan 'Jack' Lord was hoping a federal jury would award him millions of dollars in back pay and other damages dating back to his firing. But the six-person Miami federal jury found that Shalala terminated Lord for reasons unrelated to his "protected activity" as a whistle-blower at UM's medical school." — "Broward School Board defends paying $237,000 to ousted administrators," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Scott Travis — " 100+ 'questionable' books placed in restricted section while Escambia schools review them," by Pensacola News Journal's Brittany Misencik — " Mexican actor Pablo Lyle convicted of manslaughter in fatal road-rage case in Miami," by Miami Herald's Grethel Aguila and David Ovalle
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — "Letters to Jeb Bush," by Adam Dalva for The New Yorker: "Only then did a wave of thoughts and doubts and fears crash on my brain. Had Jeb read my other e-mails? The romantic confessions? Had I sent him a description of that weird Technicolor sex dream I'd had? I thought, too, about what he had written. The advice was genuinely helpful. And it clarified, in my mind, why I had first written to him. Jeb Bush had an easier out than anyone I could have contacted. Friends feel obliged; therapists get paid; priests have a divine calling. Jeb Bush does not need to answer my e-mails." BIRTHDAYS: Former Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite …. Alan Cohen, businessman and former co-owner of the Florida Panthers ... Trey Price, executive director of the Florida Housing Finance Corporation. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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