| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Even if he didn't appear in a single ad — and there are plenty that include him — Donald Trump still looms over everything in politics. | AP | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | EYES EMOJI — SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS, the former Trump White House press secretary who is cruising to election as governor of Arkansas, will be campaigning later this month — in Iowa. Sanders will be the special guest at Sen. JONI ERNST's annual Ruck, Roast and Ride event next Saturday, Oct. 22. TV TODAY — NBC's Dasha Burns sat down for an interview with Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee MEHMET OZ that will air on the "Today" show and "NBC Nightly News." — The first and only debate between Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK and Republican challenger HERSCHEL WALKER is tonight at 7 p.m. in Savannah. Live stream here. 2022 MUST-READ OF THE DAY — "House Democrats retrench as GOP money floods the map," by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris NO ESCAPE — For a minute there, DONALD TRUMP wasn't the dominant political story. In between peak coverage in August of the FBI's search of his Mar-a-Lago home and Thursday's public vote by the Jan. 6 committee to subpoena the former president, there were long stretches when Trump wasn't the main character of the midterms. In some ways he still isn't. As NYT's Blake Hounshell and Alyce McFadden point out, Jan. 6 "is practically invisible on the nation's airwaves, despite nearly a billion dollars in overall ad spending this year." POLITICO's Jordain Carney, Sarah Ferris, and Ally Mutnick note that "Democrats have aired just two dozen spots focused on threats to democracy this cycle, in roughly 16 different battleground districts." But even if he didn't appear in a single ad — and there are plenty that include him — Trump still looms over everything in politics. — He has transformed the Republican Party: A new NYT investigation reveals "that about 70 percent of Republicans running for Congress had questioned the election of President Biden" and "nearly two-thirds are favored to win their races, according to the Cook Political Report." — He is seemingly the only subject of top nonfiction books. MAGGIE HABERMAN's "Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America" debuted at number one this week on the NYT best seller list. Just a few weeks ago, PETER BAKER and SUSAN GLASSER's "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021" debuted at number two. And yet another blockbuster is out on Tuesday: "Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress's Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump," by our own RACHAEL BADE and The Washington Post's KAROUN DEMIRJIAN. — And Trump once again this week dominates all political coverage. Yesterday, he was subpoenaed, his appeal to the Supreme Court in the Mar-a-Lago documents case was rejected, his former aides were spotted after testifying before a grand jury in the criminal investigation of Jan. 6, his name was prominently featured in text messages read aloud at the Oath Keepers trial, and his decision to form a new company was criticized by the NY attorney general who is suing him. You could be forgiven for not remembering that on Tuesday, it was Joe Biden who sat down for a rare televised interview — the kind of thing that, in another era, we'd all still be talking about. John Harris takes stock of Trump's dominance of our attention and explains "how the Jan. 6 committee helped make Donald Trump a historic president." He writes: "In historical terms, Trump is a larger figure than ever. Far from loosening, his claim on national attention is as urgent as ever. Far from fading into irrelevance, Trump is now positioned to be among the most consequential presidents of his era. This is largely on the strength of what looks to be the most consequential EX-presidency in American history. "The usual journalistic crutch when assessing political legacies is 'for better or worse,' but in this case it is only for worse. Trump's historic significance flows from how effectively he has made people doubt what was previously beyond doubt — that American democracy is on the level — and how brilliantly he has illuminated just how much this generation of Americans looks at one another with mutual contempt and mutual incomprehension. "Here is the great paradox of the Jan. 6 panel. Its inquiry has systematically dismantled Trump's deceptions and denialism surrounding the 2020 election. At the same time, it has helped build Trump into something much larger than he appeared two years ago. He is a political leader too serious to forget." Other top reads from the Trump news gusher: — POLITICO: "The Jan. 6 committee plays truth and dare with Trump" — NYT : "Jan. 6 Panel Vividly Detailed the Attack. Accountability Is Another Matter: Over its nine public hearings, the committee has not moved the needle of public opinion of former President Donald J. Trump. But it may have laid the groundwork for criminal prosecution." — WaPo : "Secret Service knew of Capitol threat more than a week before Jan. 6" — WSJ: "Durham's Steele Dossier Case Hits Hurdles From His Own FBI Witnesses" — CNN: "New footage shows congressional leadership at Fort McNair on January 6, scrambling to save the U.S. Capitol" — Fox News: "New video shows Pelosi threatened to 'punch out' Trump on Jan. 6: 'I'm going to go to jail'" — Takeaways from the hearing: NYT: "1. The committee wants Trump's testimony. 2. The panel had little new evidence. 3. Allies urged Trump's election night victory claim ahead of time. 4.The question of a criminal referral was left unresolved." … WaPo: "1. Trump's premature — and premeditated — declaration of victory. 2. CASSIDY HUTCHINSON adds to evidence Trump knew he lost. 3. More evidence Trump might've approved of rioters. 4. The committee leans in on the Secret Service. 5. The vote to subpoena Trump." SO WHAT'S ON TRUMP'S MIND? — From Maggie Haberman in an interview with Jake Tapper on CNN : "What [Trump] is very focused on right now is the other investigations that could lead to criminal charges. And that is still where much of his energy is focused. And for whatever reason, he is very focused on this lawsuit that's coming up next week, where he has to be deposed, where he's being sued for defamation by E. JEAN CARROLL, a woman who has accused him of rape. The developments around January 6th, he considers those baked in. Everybody else does not, but he does."
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Throughout the U.S., we help people invest for retirement, offer greater access to markets with low-cost investment options, and help communities thrive. BlackRock is invested in the future of Americans. Learn more. | | | Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza. TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer's latest Capital City column: "Republicans Could Regret Their Own Laws on Think Tank Transparency" MIDTERM PREVIEW — This week on Playbook Deep Dive, we talk 2022 midterms with POLITICO's national politics editor Scott Bland, who pulls back the curtain on how we cover this election. Listen here … Subscribe here on Apple Podcasts and Spotify
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| EXCLUSIVE — GABRIELLE GIFFORDS' gun-control group played a key role in getting GOP Pennsylvania Sen. PAT TOOMEY elected in 2016. Now her PAC is going all-in to defeat the Republican who wants to replace him. Giffords PAC, which was founded by the former Arizona congresswoman who survived a January 2011 shooting in the Tucson area, is launching a $2.5 million ad buy today attacking Oz. The spot, which was first shared with POLITICO, goes after Oz for opposing universal background checks. "Oz sides against law enforcement, putting our communities and kids at risk," the narrator says in the ad, which is airing on broadcast TV and online. "Oz is a risk we can't take." PETER AMBLER, executive director of the umbrella organization Giffords, said in an interview that gun control is "an important persuadable issue for moderate voters, particularly those in the collar counties in the suburbs around Philadelphia." In 2016, Toomey used his support of stricter gun laws — and the backing of key gun-control groups like Giffords — to win over suburban voters. "He overperformed Trump in the Philly suburbs, and I think we can definitely attribute a lot of that performance to the fact that he was able to break with his party, break with the gun lobby," said Ambler. Oz, he argued, "is clearly going to pay a political price here." BIG PICTURE HACK ATTACK? — The cellular modems that send election data from precincts to main offices help move unofficial results quickly, but they also open up an under-the-radar cyber vulnerability, Eric Geller reports this morning . "While tampering with unofficial results wouldn't actually corrupt an election's outcome, it could fuel misinformation about both the accuracy of the vote tally and the integrity of the process." The devices are in use in some counties in Michigan, Minnesota, possibly Wisconsin and elsewhere. "While there've been no reports of modems being hacked in previous elections," Eric writes, "the vulnerabilities are well known, and hackers have the tools to exploit them." BATTLE FOR THE SENATE MAN OF THIEL — After PETER THIEL made a splashy offer to finally put more money behind his protege BLAKE MASTERS in Arizona if the MITCH McCONNELL-aligned Senate Leadership Fund matched it, the super PAC's STEVEN LAW told Thiel on Thursday that he couldn't get the donations for it, Alex Isenstadt scooped. Law encouraged Thiel to spend nonetheless. "The call was described as cordial." But, but, but: Thiel does still plan to put in more money for Masters — as much as $5 million, WaPo's Isaac Stanley-Becker scooped. FETTERMAN WEIGHS IN — Following the blowup over characterizations of his use of captions in a sit-down with NBC's Dasha Burns, Fetterman spoke with Rolling Stone's Kara Voght about the controversy : "I mean — if you're offended, or you would not want to consider voting me, because I'm having our interview" over closed captioning, "that's kind of surreal to me, why anybody would want to make that an issue," he said. "I don't understand that. It's just bizarre." ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Republican Sen. RON JOHNSON and Democratic challenger MANDELA BARNES squared off in their second debate Thursday — a lively affair, "but it's hard to see it changing the course of the election with less than a month to go," wrote NYT's Reid Epstein. Five takeaways from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel One notable moment, via Holly Otterbein: "The tone of the evening was even nasty when the two candidates were asked to name something they found admirable about their rivals. Barnes said Johnson has 'proven to be a family man.' Johnson first said 'I appreciate the fact that Lt. Gov. Barnes had loving parents,' and then added, 'What puzzles me about that is with that upbringing, why has he turned against America?' His response prompted booing from the crowd." 48-second clip — Meanwhile, the Journal Sentinel's Daniel Bice has two new stories on the candidates — one that Johnson won't like, and one that Barnes won't like. Bad for Johnson: Democrats are newly hammering Johnson for a tax break in the Trump tax reform he backed that allows write-offs for private jets — three of which his children have bought. (Johnson's campaign said their purchases were unrelated to the tax break.) Bad for Barnes: Meanwhile, Bice rustles up records that show Barnes gave RT (that's Russian state-funded media) a half-dozen interviews in 2015 and 2016 where he criticized police. (Barnes' campaign said he wasn't paid for the comments, and Johnson has his own Russia record.) CUE THE ATTACK ADS — An undercover Democratic operative got New Hampshire GOP nominee DON BOLDUC on tape questioning the legality of embryo disposal for in vitro fertilization, Vanity Fair's Abigail Tracy reports. Bolduc called it "a disgusting practice," and said he was "not going to say no" to a national ban. CUT TO THE CHASE — Georgia Libertarian CHASE OLIVER wants to push Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK and HERSCHEL WALKER into a runoff — and he just might peel off enough support to do it, Bloomberg's Christian Hall reports . Oliver, who's making history as a gay Senate nominee in the state, says he wants to teach "a lesson to them"; he hopes to win over Republicans turned off by Walker and make a play for "a [BRIAN] KEMP-Oliver voter."
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   BlackRock is proud to support U.S. roads and infrastructure, with over $20 billion invested on behalf of our clients. Learn more. | | | BATTLE FOR THE STATES YOUR BIG MORNING READ — "'Ron DeSantis' Greatest Foe Isn't Charlie Crist or Donald Trump. It's Hubris,'" by Michael Kruse. Reporting from Tampa, Michael finds that Gov. RON DeSANTIS' unadulterated ambition is propelling him to the forefront of the nation's politics — even as hubris threatens to be an Achilles' heel. His pugilism achieved no rawer partisan expression than in his suspension of Hillsborough County State Attorney ANDREW WARREN, which critics called openly undemocratic. The governor's power plays have turned off some Republican and independent former supporters. Still, even they don't expect him to lose in November. DeSantis appears to be cruising over Rep. CHARLIE CRIST, as the Tampa Bay Times' Emily Mahoney details in a story about how DeSantis' handling of Hurricane Ian may have put away the race for good. Astonishing stat: DeSantis has a $100 million money advantage over Crist. UP FOR DEBATE — "Michigan's face-off on Thursday between incumbent Democratic Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER and Republican challenger TUDOR DIXON was marked by frequent accusations of lying from both sides, as the candidates tried to paint each other as untrustworthy on issues ranging from abortion to schools with just a few weeks left before Election Day," write Olivia Olander and Alice Miranda Ollstein. Via the Detroit News: "Five clashes that defined the debate" HOT POLLS — Michigan: The Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA find statewide Democrats holding onto their leads — but races getting tighter: Gov. Whitmer leads Dixon, 49% to 38%; AG DANA NESSEL leads MATT DePERNO, 43% to 39%; and Secretary of State JOCELYN BENSON leads KRISTINA KARAMO, 47% to 37%. … On the other hand, Insider Advantage has Whitmer and Dixon tied at 44%. — Arizona: Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY is ahead of BLAKE MASTERS 46% to 42%, but Lake leads Hobbs for governor 49% to 46%, per FOX 10/Insider Advantage. — Pennsylvania: Fetterman is up 47% to 45% over Oz in a new Trafalgar/Daily Wire poll. Shapiro leads Mastriano 53% to 44%. HOT ADS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sentinel Action Fund, the Heritage Action-affiliated super PAC, is going up with roughly $940,000 in ads across two districts starting today. Two ads will bolster Rep. YVETTE HERRELL (R-N.M.): this spot on oil and gas industry jobs, and a later one on crime and law enforcement. And this ad highlights the National Border Patrol Council switching its support from Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) to challenger CASSY GARCIA. DOLLAR DISCREPANCY — Republicans' reliance on super PACs, compared to Democratic candidates' strong individual fundraising, puts the party at a significant disadvantage on the airwaves, where super PAC money goes much less far, NYT's Shane Goldmacher writes . The numbers he digs up are pretty striking. "Hour after hour in state after state, Republicans are paying double, triple, quadruple and sometimes even 10 times more than Democrats for ads on the exact same programs. … The issue may seem arcane. But strategists in both parties say it has become hugely consequential."
| | BIDEN'S FRIDAY (all times Eastern):
— 4:10 p.m.: The president will depart LA for Orange County, arriving at 5 p.m.
— 6:10 p.m.: Biden will speak about lowering prices at Irvine Valley Community College.
— 7:20 p.m.: Biden will leave Orange County for Portland, Ore., arriving at 9:30 p.m.
— 10:10 p.m.: Biden will take part in a grassroots volunteer event with Oregon Dems.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle on Air Force One en route to Oregon.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' FRIDAY — The VP will meet with student leaders to talk reproductive health care at 2:30 p.m.
THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out. | | | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Venezuelan migrants walk across the Rio Bravo toward the United States border to surrender to the border patrol, from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Thursday, Oct. 13. | Christian Chavez/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS HEADS UP — Sen. PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.) was in the hospital overnight for observation after he started feeling unwell at home Thursday, his office said. The hospital visit was a precaution, they said, for the retiring 82-year-old who had a bad fall in June. More from Burgess Everett BUREAUCRACY BATTLE — Heretofore uncontroversial plans for the State Department to reorganize some staffers under a new "China House" are running into a roadblock in the form of Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), Nahal Toosi reports. Risch objected to the proposal, calling it a "bureaucratic power grab," which will likely prevent it from moving forward for now. KNOWING JASON SMITH — "'Firebrand' Missourian shakes up Ways and Means race," by Roll Call's Laura Weiss MORE FROM 'UNCHECKED' — Rachael and Karoun's new book catalogs how Speaker NANCY PELOSI "squandered multiple opportunities to win [impeachment] support from Republicans who were initially panicked about what Trump's conduct toward Ukraine would mean for them — allowing them to find an opening to exploit Democrats' internal wrangling about how to proceed," Andrew Desiderio writes this morning. COMING ATTRACTIONS — Roll Call's John Donnelly and Mark Satter break down the upcoming debate over amendments to the NDAA, encompassing everything from Taiwan to immigration to vaccine mandates. THE WHITE HOUSE POTUS ON THE ROAD — Biden's trip to Los Angeles this week coincided with utter political chaos in the city. But the president nonetheless hit up major donors, gave a boost to Rep. KAREN BASS' mayoral bid and ended up "redirecting the city's attention to national Democrats circling the wagons," the L.A. Times' Benjamin Oreskes and Eli Stokols report. — Biden said he'll have "more to say" about bringing down gas prices next week, per the Washington Examiner. BEYOND THE BELTWAY DEPT. OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES — The few dozen migrants whom Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS flew to Martha's Vineyard may now have a pathway to citizenship as victims of a crime on U.S. soil, Jesús Rodríguez reports. Though they previously lacked such a route, DeSantis' stunt has led to the San Antonio-area sheriff signing off on the Venezuelans as having cooperated with his investigation, opening up a new visa door. WAR IN UKRAINE MUSK READ — SpaceX is telling the Pentagon it will need to start paying tens of millions of dollars monthly to support the crucial Starlink satellite units in Ukraine, saying ELON MUSK's company can't keep paying for them, CNN's Alex Marquardt scooped . The internet connections for Ukrainian troops could cost SpaceX $400 million over the next year, it says in letters to the Defense Department. "SpaceX's request that the U.S. military foot the bill has rankled top brass at the Pentagon, with one senior defense official telling CNN that SpaceX has 'the gall to look like heroes' while having others pay so much and now presenting them with a bill for tens of millions per month." FALLOUT IN TURTLE BAY — The Helsinki Commission is endorsing a longshot bid to remove Russia from the U.N. Security Council, Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer scooped. The independent U.S. body encouraged Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN to try to force a vote on the matter, though experts have doubts it can succeed. JUDICIARY SQUARE JONESING FOR JONES — The Sandy Hook families awarded near $1 billion from ALEX JONES face a long haul to actually get that money, NYT's Elizabeth Williamson and Emily Steel report: There's a looming appeal, bankruptcy proceedings and the fact that Jones' whole media empire was valued at less than a third that amount. But, but, but: NBC's Safia Samee Ali takes a different tack on the story, reporting that Jones won't likely be able to escape the judgment. "He may be forced to live a subsistence type of life," one expert says.
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   Invested in the future of education. Learn more about BlackRock. | | | TRUMP CARDS THE INVESTIGATIONS — Newly released excerpts of the Trumps' testimony in New York AG TISH JAMES' civil probe showed DONALD TRUMP JR. distancing himself from the Trump Organization's financial statements, saying he wasn't involved in creating them, CNN's Kara Scannell reports. AMERICA AND THE WORLD IMMIGRATION FILES — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and other top U.S. officials were in Mexico City on Thursday, focused on immigration across Latin America and other issues, NYT's Michael Crowley reports . "Biden officials chose their words carefully on the sensitive topic of immigration, avoiding phrases like 'border crisis' and emphasizing that the effects of social and economic upheaval in the region, thanks in part to the pandemic, are not unique to the United States." Still, an acting assistant DHS secretary explicitly told Venezuelans not to come, per Bloomberg. TV TONIGHT — PBS' "Washington Week": Dan Balz, Astead Herndon, Ali Vitali and Nicholas Wu. SUNDAY SO FAR … ABC "This Week": Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) … Anthony Fauci. Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Maggie Haberman and Julie Pace. FOX "Fox News Sunday": House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.). Panel: Kevin Roberts, Mollie Hemingway, Josh Kraushaar and Richard Fowler. CBS "Face the Nation": Betsey Stevenson … Karoun Demirjian and Rachael Bade … Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova. MSNBC "The Sunday Show": Franklin Foer … Kimberlé Crenshaw … Chris Jones … Lanae Erickson … Steve Phillips … Anita Hill. CNN "Inside Politics": Panel: Toluse Olorunnipa, Peter Baker, Susan Glasser and Kristen Soltis Anderson. NBC "Meet the Press": Panel: Eugene Daniels, Maria Teresa Kumar, Pat McCrory and Amy Walter.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | George W. Bush and Laura Bush will be honored by the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition on World AIDS Day. Omar Ashmawy , the head of the Office of Congressional Ethics, was charged with a DUI after allegedly driving his car into a Pennsylvania home's front porch, Yahoo's Jana Winter scooped. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jordan Brooks has been tapped to be chief of staff for second gentleman Doug Emhoff. She previously was executive director of the United State of Women and EVP of gender equity at Civic Nation, and is an Obama White House alum. HUD DEPARTURE LOUNGE — HUD's two appointees leading climate work have left the department: Kevin Bush, previously deputy assistant secretary for grant programs, is now leading the Cadmus Group's resilient infrastructure practice, and Crystal Bergemann, previously senior adviser for climate change, is now senior director for resilience at the White House's Council on Environmental Quality. TRANSITIONS — Jamie Wall is now VP and head of the D.C. office of ExxonMobil. She most recently was EVP of advocacy at SIFMA, and is a Subject Matter and Honeywell alum. … Howard Ou is joining the Asian American Foundation as director of government relations. He most recently was associate director in the White House Office of Public Engagement, leading on AAPI, housing and agency portfolios for his team. ENGAGED — Kylie Nolan, deputy comms director for the Senate Homeland Security GOP, and Jonathan Newbold of Acuity Inc. got engaged in Montepulciano, Italy, on Tuesday. They met when Kylie's dog was attacked by another dog, and Jonathan intervened to help stop the attack. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kaitlin Stoddard, legislative assistant for Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), and Alex Stoddard, auditor with the Senate Rules Committee, welcomed Violet Alexandra Stoddard on Sunday. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.) … CBS' Bob Costa … R Street's Eli Lehrer … POLITICO's Bianca Quilantan and Erin Aulov … Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute … Emily Atkin … Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government … Ira Shapiro … Tucker Foote of Mastercard … Melissa Maxfield … CNN's Annie Grayer … Stephen Ohlemacher … FGS Global's Mike Feldman … Marshall Yates … Daniel Castro of the Center for Data Innovation … Chris May of Quadrant Advisory … "Cali" Chris Okey … Microsoft's Dave Leichtman ... Brian Bond ... Targeted Victory's Anang Mittal … Chris Walker … Emma Dulaney of the House Oversight Dems … Isabel Milán … Leigh Whittaker of Rep. David Price's (D-N.C.) office … Anthony O'Boyle of the National Italian American Foundation Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Correction: Thursday's Playbook misstated the anniversary being celebrated at a dinner this week. It was the Hamilton Hotel's 100th.
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