Friday, October 14, 2022

🐦More Market Pain Ahead as Inflation Soars and Wages Stagnate

Good morning. The latest inflation numbers showed a year-over-year decline. That's good. But the...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The latest inflation numbers showed a year-over-year decline. That's good. But the monthly rate increased. Markets didn't like that part of the read. Even worse, thanks to the high inflation numbers as measured against wage growth, real wages have been shrinking for 18 months.

Add in an economy that's already seen negative GDP growth for two quarters in a row – the definition of a recession in the past—and it's clear that the economy hasn't yet slowed enough for a pivot in the markets.

We're still oversold in the short-term, so anything is possible. But the medium-term trend is still down, and likely will be until there's a stronger sense that inflation is under control and the Fed can lay off the hard braking it's been doing. Keep looking for opportunities on the short side.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,038.72 +2.83%
S&P 3,669.91 +2.60%
NASDAQ 10,649.15 +2.23%
*As of market close
Markets jumped higher on Thursday, strongly rebounding from a morning loss.
Oil rallied 2.1 percent, closing at $89.11 per barrel.
Gold dropped 0.4 percent, last going for about $1,671 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies rallied, with Bitcoin at $19,363 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Stick With Stocks That Have Inflation-Fighting Power
It's become clear that last year's rise in inflation hasn't moderated yet. It may continue for some time. That can impact the economy in a number of ways. For investors, the biggest is how a company's expenses can rise and profit margins can fall.

In this environment, companies that can increase their prices to cover higher input costs can maintain their profit margins and fare well here. That may mean falling less than other stocks, or even seeing shares move higher in a bear market like today's.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)
Michael Quartieri, CFO at Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY), recently increased his holdings by 5,000 shares. The buy increased his total ownership by nearly 14 percent, and came to a total cost of $158,650.

This marks the first insider activity since the company CEO bought 33,400 shares back in July. And going further back, insider buys have exceeded insider sales this year. Going back further, insiders were only sellers in 2020 and 2021.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Bank of America (BAC)
Shares of financial giant Bank of America (BAC) have lost nearly one-third of their value in the past year amid a slowing economy and rising interest rates. One trader sees a rebound in the weeks ahead.

That's based on the November 25 $32 calls. With 42 days until expiration, 5,841 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 106, for a 55-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.99 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Inflation Rose 0.4 Percent in September

The latest consumer price index data shows that overall prices rose 0.4 percent in September compared to August. That's double expectations for a 0.2 percent rise. On an annual basis, inflation slowed to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent. However, core CPI showed a 6.6 increase compared to a year ago.
Social Security to See Biggest Jump In 40 Years

The Social Security Administration has announced an 8.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment for benefits. That's the highest rise in four decades. The increase will raise the average benefit of $1,656 by a further $144.10. The increase will start next January, going out to 51 million collecting retirement benefits.
Mortgage Rates Top 6.9 Percent

30-year, fixed-rate mortgages in the US hit 6.92 percent this week. That's a 20-year high. It's now also more than double the rate at this time last year, which came in at 3.05 percent. Rising mortgage rates increase the cost to borrowing a home, which should lead to downward pressure on home sales and prices.
Pound Stabilizes on Potential Changes to Tax Cuts

The British Pound has jumped higher relative to the US dollar. The move has been a result of a proposal to scale back a package of tax cuts, which helped the currency slide to a multi-decade low. Additionally, the Bank of England's intervention in the bond market has cooled speculation there, with long-term gilts down to 4.41 percent.
Google Play Store Adds Truth Social

Google's (GOOG) Play Store app is adding Truth Social, the network owned by former President Trump. The app was initially blocked on the platform, citing rule violations in a number of posts on the platform. Truth Social has agreed to enforce content policies, including those that may incite violence.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
DPZ 10.686%
KEY 6.96%
WBD 6.624%
BIIB 6.522%
RF 6.428%
BOTTOM
ETSY 9.387%
MTCH 4.705%
JD 2.672%
CCL 2.668%
GNRC  2.627%

Quote of the Day
Prices remain elevated so it shouldn't be a surprise to see producer goods and services rise. Keep in mind the increase is still below what we were seeing consistently month after month earlier this year. No doubt the Fed still has its work cut out for them… don't be surprised to see some investors come to grips with how long the road to tamer inflation may be.
- Mike Loewengart, of Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office, on why investors still may not have fully priced in how high the Fed will raise interest rates and for how long.

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The man who picked Bitcoin in 2014 when it was trading for just $369… picked Ethereum in 2016 when it was trading for just $7, AND even warned his followers of the 2020 crash.

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So if you missed Bitcoin and Ethereum... this could be your final chance at mind boggling crypto gains. Learn how to get in front of this massive opportunity.

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