Thursday, October 13, 2022

🔴Why Real Inflation May Still Be as High as 20 Percent

Good morning. While the official inflation numbers suggest that prices are rising at nearly 9...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While the official inflation numbers suggest that prices are rising at nearly 9 percent year-over-year, many goods have risen much higher. That suggests that inflation could be higher than officially measured by the government.

One sign will be seen with corporate earnings. PepsiCo (PEP)'s earnings data from yesterday suggests that their average product price rose by 17 percent year-over-year. That's likely a better measure of inflation. After all, while governments can print money, they can't print food, even junk food.

Traders should continue to expect inflation to last higher and longer, and that continued volatility is likely in the months ahead until a stronger sign of declining inflation emerges.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 29,210.85 -0.10%
S&P 3,577.03 -0.33%
NASDAQ 10,417.10 -0.09%
*As of market close
Markets traded lower on Wednesday, following a higher-than-expected PPI reading.
Oil dropped 2.6 percent, closing at $87.06 per barrel.
Gold dropped 0.2 percent, last going for about $1,682 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded mixed, with Bitcoin at $19,143 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Stick With Companies Looking Forward Amid the Current Economic Slowdown
The market outlook is grim. Stocks continue to set new lows. Many companies are facing challenges. But a few are using this time of hardship to set themselves up for success when the economy turns around.

While it can be challenging to look to the future when the present is fearful, growth must go on. And one sign of a great company is that it finds a new way to grow its business during a time of market fear when few want to make deals.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Lazydays Holdings (LAZY)
B. Riley Financial (RILY), a major holder of Lazydays Holdings (LAZY), recently added 191,203 shares. The buy increased the fund's stake by nearly 11 percent, and came to a total cost of just under $2.48 million.

This follows up on a 19,950 share buy from the fund in late September. And the fund has been a regular buyer of shares going back earlier in the year. Company executives have largely been sellers of shares, when the stock was trading at a far higher price.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: AT&T (T)
Shares of telecom company AT&T (T) are down about 22 percent over the past year and have been sliding to new 52-week lows in recent sessions. One trader sees a rebound for shares in the coming weeks.

That's based on the November 18 $14 calls. With 36 days until expiration, 10,033 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 157, for a 64-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $1.21 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Producer Prices Rise in September

The producer price index (PPI), rose 0.4 percent in September. The gain was higher than expected, and leaves a year-over-year PPI read of 8.5 percent. While down from 8.7 percent last month, it's still higher than expectation, and a sign that the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates.
Biden Warns on "Consequences" For OPEC Production Cut

The Biden White House has stated that there will be "consequences" for Saudi Arabia for OPEC's recent decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day. However, there are few options available to negate the cut, especially given the large sales from the strategic petroleum reserve.
Chip Equipment Suppliers Halt Shipments to China

US suppliers of chipmaking equipment are pulling out staff at China's leading memory chipmaking facility. The move comes following a rising list of export restrictions on technology shipments to China as outlined by the Commerce Department. While the move has been made to prevent American technology from advancing Chinese military tech, it could also weigh on global chipmaking supplies.
Subway Reports Record Sales

Sales at Subway locations rose 8.4 percent in the third quarter. And the privately-held company, which rarely discloses such information, states that it's hitting record sales across its 20,000 US locations. The company cites a rise in speedier service, an increase in digital orders, and new menu options for the turnaround.
Toyota Warns on Exposed Personal Information

Toyota Motors (TM) reports that the personal information of roughly 300,000 customers may have been exposed for a period of nearly five years. The exposure may have occurred thanks to T-Connect, the Toyota app that connects a smartphone to a vehicle's dashboard system. The company believe no customer information other than email addresses and customer numbers would have been exposed.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
NCLH 11.78%
RCL 11.637%
CCL 10.015%
MRNA 7.944%
VLO 5.602%
BOTTOM
ALB 7.799%
TROW 4.619%
ETR 4.335%
NEE 4.294%
LNT 4.197%

Quote of the Day
This is an awful stock market environment that is grappling with a weakening economy, uncertainty over earnings and how long the Fed's tightening will last, and sentiment issues with an extremely risk averse investor psychology. We believe the Fed will raise interest rates one or two more times until the Fed funds rate reaches 4% and then take a pause, at which point the Fed will assess the damage done.
- David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, on why the stock market environment still looks poor going into the year, and why markets will likely continue to trade downward until the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates.

Sponsored Content
$2 Coin could explode in Crypto's 3rd Shock Wave
If you're worried about market volatility, pay close attention and click here.

Because while most people are panicking right now… multi-millionaire crypto analyst Joe Shew is convinced this is a rare chance for regular people to cash in on a small $2 coin set to soar as crypto's 3rd shock wave takes place as soon as this month.

After picking Bitcoin at $369... and Ethereum at $7... this is a must watch broadcast.

Click here to see details on the move he's telling everyone to make.


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