Thursday, October 13, 2022

💥 Jan. 6 stunner

Plus: LGBTQ+ voter surge | Thursday, October 13, 2022
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Oct 13, 2022

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 992 words ... 3.5 minutes.

 
 
1 big thing: "The central player"
Jan. 6 hearing

The Jan. 6 committee shows unseen footage of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the phone with Vice President Mike Pence during the Capitol riot. Photo: Alex Wong/Pool via AP

 

The Jan. 6 committee brought the heat in its final hearing before the midterms, saving a symphony of bombshells designed to ensure its work lives on in the historical record — no matter what happens in next month's elections.

The big picture: Determined to minimize the role of ancillary characters, the committee used the hearing to drill down on Donald Trump's unique culpability in the insurrection — generating its biggest headlines with a surprise vote to subpoena the former president.

  • "He is the one person at the center of the story of what happened on Jan. 6. We want to hear from him," Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) declared in a scathing closing statement.

Reality check: Trump and his aides' favorite legal tactic — delay, contest, appeal — allowed them to skirt depositions during years of congressional investigations. It's all but certain to work again, especially with the committee poised to sunset in December.

Screenshot: MSNBC

4 takeaways

1. Trump's election-night plans were premeditated.

  • Former White House aides confirmed to the committee that Trump had long planned to prematurely declare victory on election night, as Axios first reported. Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale testified that the plans dated back to as early as July.
  • Tom Fitton, the president of the conservative group Judicial Watch, sent a draft statement to the White House on Oct. 31 in which Trump would claim victory based on votes counted by the "Election Day deadline."

2. Criminal referrals possible.

  • Vice Chair Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said the committee has "sufficient information to consider criminal referrals of multiple individuals," and that more than 30 witnesses in the investigation invoked the Fifth Amendment.
  • "At some point, the Department of Justice may well unearth facts that these and other witnesses are currently concealing," Cheney said in a nod to DOJ's intensifying grand-jury investigation of the scheme to overturn the election.
Screenshot: MSNBC

3. Secret Service texts reveal scale of Pence threat.

  • More than 1 million electronic communications turned over to the committee revealed Secret Service agents were highly sensitive to the physical danger Vice President Mike Pence was under as a result of Trump's pressure campaign.
  • The committee also showed records suggesting the Secret Service had intelligence about the threat to the Capitol at least 10 days before Jan. 6, and that agents scrambled to prevent Trump from traveling to the Hill himself.

4. Stunning Capitol footage.

  • Never-before-seen video revealed top congressional leaders — with the exception of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — huddling in a secure room as the mob ransacked the Capitol.
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — who has been attacked by Republicans for not doing enough to protect the Capitol on Jan. 6 — is shown working the phones to get National Guard reinforcements, including in a call with Pence.

Go deeper: Jan. 6 committee eyes finish line sprint

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2. 🪖 Trump's withdrawal gambit
Screenshot: MSNBC

The Jan. 6 committee confirmed that on Nov. 11, 2020, the acting Defense secretary received a memo signed by Trump ordering the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Somalia and Afghanistan — days after the election was called for Biden.

Why it matters: The committee pointed to the existence of the memo — which was first reported in Axios' "Off the Rails" series in May 2021 — as evidence that Trump knew he had lost the election and was scrambling to cement his foreign-policy legacy before leaving office.

  • Top leadership at the Pentagon viewed the hasty withdrawal as irresponsible and potentially dangerous and immediately mobilized to urge White House officials to change Trump's mind.
  • Keith Kellogg, former national security adviser to Pence, testified to the committee: "An immediate departure that that memo said would have been catastrophic. It's the same thing with President Biden," comparing what eventually occurred in August 2021. "It would have been a debacle."

Go deeper: Reporting from "Off the Rails" has provided raw material for several of the committee's most explosive revelations, including Trump's war against his own generals.

Find the full series here.

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3. 🏳️‍🌈 Stunning stat: LGBTQ+ voter surge
Data: Human Rights Campaign; Chart: Axios Visuals

The LGBTQ+ voting population is projected to grow from one in 10 voters today to nearly one in four in 2040, Axios' Sophia Cai writes from a new Human Rights Campaign report.

  • Key battleground states like Georgia, Arizona, Texas and Nevada are projected to see a higher rate of growth than the U.S. average.

Why it matters: The growth of the LGBTQ+ voting bloc — driven by higher LGBTQ+ identification among younger generations — could transform the U.S. electoral landscape at local, state and federal levels.

Keep reading.

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4. 🗳️ Focus groups: Pa. swing voters aren't sold on a switch
Illustration of a person walking away from an elephant.

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

Trump-to-Biden swing voters in Pennsylvania in our latest Axios Engagious/Schlesinger focus groups are favoring Democrats or split-ticket ballots in next month's midterms, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports.

  • Many believe that if Republicans retake power, they'll push a nationwide abortion ban and focus on "revenge" investigations against President Biden and his party.

Why it matters: These voters' disappointment with Biden and the economy — as well as rising anxiety about crime — aren't persuading them to embrace the Republicans at the top of their state's ticket.

How it works: All 13 participants voted for former President Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The panels included six registered Republicans, six Democrats and one independent.

What they're saying: "I have seen what happens when celebrities become in a position of power, and I did not enjoy that," Stephanie S., a Democrat, said about Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz.

  • Bob G., a Republican who said he's not "a MAGA Republican," wants to see his party separate from Trump and gets nervous about who is driving the GOP's agenda. Still, he's backing Oz "based on the economy."
  • Bob said he finds Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano's extremism so troubling that if it were a close race, he would vote for Democrat Josh Shapiro to keep Mastriano out.

Keep reading.

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5. 📈 Tweet du jour: Biden's headache
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A message from Meta

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In the metaverse, urban planners will bring their designs to life and collaborate with engineers, architects and public officials in real time — paving the way for less congested cities.

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📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

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