Monday, October 17, 2022

☕ Trouble on the Mississippi

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Morning Brew

Fundrise

Good morning. Wanna feel old? Eminem turns 50 today.

Neal Freyman

MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

10,321.39

S&P

3,583.07

Dow

29,634.83

10-Year

4.004%

Bitcoin

$19,255.24

Beyond Meat

$13.35

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 12:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Investors enter the week feeling more broken than Tennessee's goal posts. Before Thursday's rally, the S&P had dropped in 16 of the previous 20 trading sessions, and the Nasdaq is down 34% on the year. And about Thursday's spike—investors tell the WSJ it's just a temporary "bear-market rally" and not an indication that stocks have bottomed out. That will likely only happen when the Fed signals it's ready to slow down its rate hikes.

GEOPOLITICS

That's what Xi said

Chinese President Xi Jinping, is applauded as he waves to senior members of the government as he arrives to the Opening Ceremony of the 20th National Congress Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed China's Communist Party Congress meeting with the swagger of a guy who's about to become the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.

Speaking at China's biggest political summit (they're only held once every five years), Xi boasted about his controversial zero-Covid policy, touted the country's "socialist economic system," and, in the biggest crowd-pleaser, reiterated his opposition to Taiwan's independence.

At the end of this weeklong conference, Xi is expected to be reelected to his third five-year term, which has never happened before (he scrapped presidential term limits in 2018).

That isn't the whole story

While Xi painted a rosy picture of China's current situation, the reality is that the country's once-booming economy is slowing significantly, and its ambitions to topple the US as the dominant player in technology just took a major blow, courtesy of the White House.

Earlier in October, the US unleashed one of its biggest pushes yet to wound China's tech industry, curbing exports of certain semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. The goal? Hamstring China's ability to develop more advanced weapons and surveillance technology. Because China has struggled to create its own chips for these industries, and still depends on American tech, the rules are likely to do serious damage.

But Washington isn't just barring the flow of key chips to China, it's also barring the flow of human talent. As part of the new controls, the US is prohibiting "US persons" from working on Chinese chip development.

That's a big deal. For instance, dozens of Americans hold leadership positions at Chinese chipmakers. The WSJ found that at least 43 senior executives at public Chinese chip companies (including CEOs) are American citizens, the majority of whom came over after learning the ropes in Silicon Valley. Now, companies are scrambling to tell their American employees to stop working on projects that would violate the new US rules.

So what does Xi think about all this? While he didn't explicitly reference Washington's export controls in his speech yesterday, Xi did stress the importance of China becoming self-reliant in order to win the tech battle.

        

TOGETHER WITH FUNDRISE

Markets got you down?

Fundrise

We hate watching our portfolio go from green to red during a market decline, too. But it's time to do something about it…like actively hedging your investments with a Fundrise real estate portfolio to improve your return potential—instantly.

Fun fact (in not-so-fun financial times): Fundrise produced its strongest ever relative performance during the first half of 2022, beating the S&P 500 on an absolute basis by nearly 25%.*

Another fun fact? Fundrise just posted its 21st consecutive quarter of positive returns. And it's all thanks to the portfolio's $6b worth of real estate assets, which are very well positioned to outperform the market, even during economic downturns. 

Start building wealth with Fundrise today.

        

WORLD

Tour de headlines

This photograph taken on September 25, 2022, shows an antenna of the Starlink satellite-based broadband system donated by the US tech billionaire Elon Musk Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images

Musk says he'll fund Starlink in Ukraine after all. Elon Musk said that SpaceX would provide its Starlink broadband internet service in Ukraine for free, just a day after Musk threatened to pull funding because it was too expensive. Musk seems to be doing it begrudgingly. He tweeted, "Even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we'll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free." Still, this reversal might get him out of the doghouse with Ukrainian leaders.

Biden joins the Great British pile on. As British PM Liz Truss tries to salvage her administration, the US president waded into the fray by calling her tax cuts, some of which she abandoned on Friday, a "mistake." Truss's brand-new finance chief, Jeremy Hunt, also acknowledged that parts of her economic strategy were a mistake, and suggested that more plans could be shelved.

You can now apply for student loan relief…kinda. The US government released a beta version of its application for student loan relief, marking the first time borrowers can apply to get up to $20,000 of their student loan debt wiped out. However, this is a beta version, so expect some bugs. The form will only be available periodically (try again later if it's not working for you now). Plus, no student loan debt will be canceled until at least Oct. 23.

TRADE

The Mississippi River hangs up 'no diving' signs

A tugboat pushing a barge up into a canal controlled by locks along the Mississippi River just north of the city of St. Louis. Getty Images

You thought Huck Finn had wild adventures on the Mississippi? Try being a barge on the river right now. Water levels on the Mississippi are approaching their lowest levels in 30 years, creating traffic jams, jacking up shipping prices, and threatening jobs that depend on this critical trade route.

Why is it so dry? The simple answer is always the correct one: There's been no rain. Vicksburg, Mississippi, which is located on the river, has received less than one inch of rain since Sep. 1.

Meager water levels make transportation on the river much trickier—or downright impossible. Last Friday, more than 2,000 barges were backed up along the Mississippi because certain points were closed.

Why it matters: The Mississippi River is the lubricant of the American commercial engine. The river's basin accounts for 92% of US agricultural exports, and 78% of global exports of soybeans and feed grains, per the Guardian. When the river was closed at least three times during the Great Plains drought of 2012, the US economy suffered $35 billion in losses.

Big picture: From the Rhine River in Europe to Lake Mead in the US Southwest, "shrinking water levels threaten the economy" has been a recurring theme of 2022. Just waiting to see if any dead bodies turn up…

        

CALENDAR

The week ahead

A bench in a park in autumn Arif Balkan/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Hope this week finds all of you sitting on a leafy bench just like this one.

Earnings: Earnings season goes from a trot to a canter this week when some heavy-hitters will give business updates, including Netflix, Tesla, IBM, Goldman Sachs, and P&G. In their reports last week, bank execs said that consumers were still in pretty good shape, despite the gloomy economic outlook.

This league: The NBA regular season starts on Tuesday. Expect plenty of off-the-court drama and also plenty of tanking for a chance to draft 7'4" French phenom Victor Wembanyama.

T-Swift returns: The prolific pop star releases her latest album, Midnights, on Friday. Swift said the album reflects "the stories of 13 sleepless nights scattered throughout my life."

Everything else:

  • President Biden said he'd announce a new effort to bring down gas prices this week (TBD on what exactly that is).
  • The House of the Dragon finale is on Sunday.
  • The Phillies will continue their quest to wreck the global economy in the NLCS against the Padres.

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Han Solo made out of bread One House Bakery

Stat: A Star Wars-obsessed mother and daughter baking team in the Bay Area have created a six-foot sculpture of Han Solo out of bread. The doughy sculpture, dubbed "Pan Solo," is the duo's entry for their town's scarecrow contest, and we can't imagine any other competitor standing a chance. Next year, they should follow this up with Ciabatta the Hutt.

Quote:  "I just give from my heart. I never know what I'm going to do or why I'm gonna do it. I just see a need and if I can fill it, then I will."

Dolly Parton spoke about her giving strategy after receiving the Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy in NYC last week. Without calling any attention to herself, Parton has used her fortune to make a positive impact, such as funding Covid-19 vaccine research, paying for the band uniforms of Tennessee high school kids, and sending 2 million free books each month to children under five.

Read: How the internet is becoming more like TV. (Dirt)

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Police in Stockton, California, arrested a suspect in connection with a series of shootings that killed six men in Northern CA.
  • An Apple Store in Oklahoma became the second of the company's locations in the US to vote for unionization.
  • An executive at former President Trump's Truth Social media company filed a whistleblower complaint alleging that it violated securities laws while trying to go public via SPAC.
  • Billionaire investor and Republican megadonor Peter Thiel is attempting to become a citizen of Malta, per the NYT.

BREW'S BETS

Dive back into the week.

George Washington Carver didn't invent peanut butter: Here's a list of all the misconceptions you need to unlearn from school.

On CNN's Chasing Life podcast: Dr. Sanjay Gupta explores the unique sensory experiences of humans and animals. Discover how psychedelics change your worldview, why biases in taste might impact the future of food, and lots more. Listen now.

365 days of cash back: The Apple Card gives you daily cash back on every single purchase—so you can keep spending your money however you want. Apply for the Apple Card here.*

Auto-mated: With federal and environmental pushes for EV development, 5G is powering a new vision for automated manufacturing. Check out this video to see how Ford's dedicated EV plant is using connected technology to be a driving force. Sponsored by AT&T Business.*

*This is sponsored advertising content.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Turntable: Today's Turntable is v special because it's the first one that's featured the letter "v" in the middle of the jumble. Play it here.

Rivers run through it

We're dropping the hammer with a beast of a geography quiz this morning. Sorry. Here's the context: Many cities arose because they are strategically located at the intersection of two rivers. We'll give you two (or more) rivers, and you have to name the city that lies at their intersection.

In the US…

  1. Allegheny and Monongahela forming the Ohio River
  2. Missouri and Mississippi
  3. Willamette and Columbia

Now for three non-US cities…

  1. White Nile and Blue Nile
  2. Sava and Danube
  3. Gombak and Klang

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ANSWER

US

  1. Pittsburgh
  2. St. Louis
  3. Portland, Oregon

International

  1. Khartoum, Sudan
  2. Belgrade, Serbia
  3. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

✢ A Note From Fundrise

*For more information, including all relevant disclaimers, check out the Fundrise Mid-Year Investor Letter

         

Written by Neal Freyman

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