Monday, October 17, 2022

⚾️ Axios Sports: Crapshoot

Plus: Saturday for the ages | Monday, October 17, 2022
 
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Axios Sports
By Kendall Baker · Oct 17, 2022

👋 Happy Monday! One more sleep until the NBA returns.

Today's word count: 1,942 words (7 minutes).

Let's sports...

 
 
1 big thing: ⚾️ The MLB playoffs are a crapshoot
Data: MLB; Table: Axios Visuals

The MLB postseason has long been a crapshoot, and this year's expanded format — with two best-of-three wild card series replacing a one-game knockout — is thus far keeping with tradition.

  • For the 22nd straight season, there won't be a back-to-back champion — the longest such streak in the history of the four major sports.
  • For the 13th straight season, the defending champion failed to even reach the World Series, the longest streak in MLB history.

Driving the news: The 87-win Phillies, who wouldn't have even qualified for the playoffs under the old format, eliminated the defending champion Braves on Saturday — and that wasn't even the weekend's biggest upset.

  • The Padres knocked off the 111-win Dodgers, who won 22 more games than them this year. That's the second-largest gap for a playoff winner, trailing the 1906 World Series (White Sox over Cubs, 23 fewer wins).
  • The Dodgers are the "poster boys for modern playoff disappointment," writes The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal ($). They've reached 10 straight postseasons, yet their only title came in the shortened 2020 season.

Elsewhere: The Astros were the only favorite to advance, beating the Mariners, 1-0, in a wild 18-inning affair that tied the record for the longest playoff game ever and broke Seattle's hearts at home.

  • This is the Astros' sixth straight ALCS appearance. And as the lone 100-win team left in the field, Houston will be a popular pick (by bettors at least) to win their second World Series.
  • Yes, but: Only four 100-win teams have won a World Series this century (2009 Yankees, 2016 Cubs, 2017 Astros, 2018 Red Sox), further evidence of the disconnect between the regular season and October.

What they're saying ... Defector's David Roth on the randomness that's built into baseball:

"The regular season is the orderly part, October is the opposite; both are important, and the story of the season would not be complete without either. ... The amount of chaos in baseball is constant, and non-negotiable ... There's no mastering it. The only thing to do is chase it."

Coming up: Gerrit Cole and the Yankees beat the Guardians, 4-2, on Sunday to force Game 5 tonight — but only after the mighty Yanks were pushed to the brink by a rookie who came out of nowhere. Baseball, man.

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2. 🏈 A Saturday for the ages
Data: AP; Table: Axios Visuals

Saturday was college football heaven. Fields were stormed, goal posts were toppled, rivalries were renewed and tears were shed.

Driving the news: Tennessee moved up to No. 3 in this week's AP poll after knocking off Alabama, 52-49, in an instant classic in Knoxville. The last time the Volunteers were ranked this high was 2003.

  • The Tide fell to No. 6, snapping their steak of 40 straight top-five appearances. Seven of their last 20 games have been decided by six or fewer points after having just seven such games in their previous 80.
  • Tennessee, which hadn't beaten Alabama in 15 years, is officially back. No sport does rivalry like college football, and the Vols' walk-off win sparked a euphoric night for the 100,000+ in attendance.

Between the lines: Alabama was one of five unbeaten teams to lose on Saturday (Penn State, USC, Oklahoma State, James Madison), and three of those games saw both teams score 40+ points.

Where it stands ... Nine teams are still undefeated: three in the SEC (No. 1 Georgia, No. 3 Tennessee, No. 7 Ole Miss), two in the Big Ten (No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Michigan), two in the ACC (No. 5 Clemson, No. 14 Syracuse), one in the Big 12 (No. 8 TCU) and one in the Pac-12 (No. 9 UCLA).

Looking ahead: This week features five ranked-on-ranked games, headlined by Syracuse at Clemson (dream big, Orange fans!) and UCLA at Oregon, the first top-10 matchup in the Pac-12 since 2016.

Go deeper: A huge Saturday slate that actually overdelivered (SI)

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3. 🏀 Buzz building: March Madness expansion
Illustration of a basketball hoop full of basketballs

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Expansion is already on the horizon for the College Football Playoff, and March Madness could soon follow suit, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

State of play: The idea of expanding the men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments has been percolating for months, and it took center stage at last week's ACC basketball media day.

What they're saying: ACC commissioner Jim Phillips says it's time to look at expansion to create "more access, more opportunity."

  • Some agree: "I've been a proponent of expanding the NCAA tournament for a long time," said Miami coach Jim Larrañaga. "I advocated this 25 years ago," echoed Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim.
  • Some disagree: "I don't want to lose what we have," said Virginia coach Tony Bennett. Even Phillips agreed, calling March Madness "the crown jewel ... so you have to be respectful of not messing it up."

By the numbers: Over 85% of the NCAA's annual revenue comes from March Madness, per Sportico. More games would mean more money.

The big picture: Expansion is in vogue across sports right now. The NFL, MLB and NBA have all increased their slates in recent years, and the CFP will expand by 2026 at the latest.

  • But March Madness feels different. Going from 65 to 68 teams is one thing, but increasing to 96 — a probable next step, given it was also floated in 2010 — could lead to a diluted product.
  • When the CFP expands to 12 teams, it still means fewer than 10% of programs make the field. March Madness already includes 19% of teams; an expansion to 96 would up that to 27%.

The bottom line: An expanded March Madness field feels likely at some point in the future, and could be imminent. It certainly won't kill the tournament, but it might make it less fun.

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A message from Upside

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4. ⚡️ Lightning round
Bubba Wallace and Kyle Larson

Bubba Wallace confronts Kyle Larson. Photo: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

 

🏁 NASCAR in Vegas: Joey Logano surged past Ross Chastain to win Sunday's playoff race and secure a spot in the championship finale. Elsewhere, Bubba Wallace shoved Kyle Larson after they got in a crash.

⚽️ MLS playoffs: Austin (over Salt Lake), Cincinnati (over Red Bulls), Montréal (over Orlando) and the Galaxy (over Nashville) advanced to the second round. The remaining two first-round matches are tonight.

⛳️ Golf roundup: Keegan Bradley won the Zozo Championship for his first PGA Tour win in four years. ... Brooks Koepka won LIV's regular-season finale ... Fred Couples, 63, broke his age by three strokes.

🎬 A+ casting: Jonah Hill will reportedly play John Daly in the golfer's upcoming biopic, "The Bad Boy of Golf."

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5. 🏈 NFL Sunday: Bills get revenge
Josh Allen hurdles a defender

Josh Allen hurdles a defender. Photo: Jason Hanna/Getty Images

 

Two MVP favorites picked up big wins on Sunday, with Jalen Hurts leading the undefeated Eagles past the Cowboys and Josh Allen besting Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.

  • "The Rematch": The Bills beat the Chiefs, 24-20, to exact some revenge for their thrilling OT loss in last year's playoffs. This edition of the Allen-Mahomes show started off slow but ended up being quite fun.
  • New York* riding high: The Giants (5-1) are off to their best start since 2009 and the Jets (4-2) are off to their best start since 2015.
  • 324 wins: Bill Belichick tied George Halas for second on the all-time wins list, including playoffs. He now trails only Don Shula (347).
  • Bet on Atlanta: The Falcons are the third team in the past decade to start 6-0 against the spread. They've been underdogs every week.
  • 3-2-1: The Colts' record sounds like a countdown clock.

Scoreboard:

*The Giants and Jets play in New Jersey. Put some respect on my home state.

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6. ⚽️ Fox Sports will stick to soccer
Soccer players

Germany players wear shirts that spell out "Human Rights" prior to a World Cup qualifying match in March. Photo: Tobiss Schwarz/Getty Images

 

Next month's World Cup is one of the most controversial ever due to host nation Qatar's human rights record, but Americans won't hear about that while watching the games, Jeff writes.

What they're saying: Fox Sports executive producer David Neal told the Philadelphia Inquirer that its World Cup coverage will focus only on soccer.

"Our approach is clear, and it's identical to what it was four years ago in Russia. ... If a story affects the field of play, if it affects the competition in the tournament, we will cover it fully."
"If it doesn't ... if it has to do with the construction of the venues or what have you, we're going to leave that to other entities to cover. Our focus is entirely on the 64-game tournament."

The backdrop: Qatar has been under the microscope for its human rights abuses and mistreatment of migrant workers since winning this bid back in 2010.

  • Over 6,500 migrant workers died in Qatar over the past decade, per The Guardian, and a "significant portion" of those deaths stemmed from building World Cup infrastructure.
  • Women's rights in Qatar are severely curtailed due to its guardianship system, and homosexual relations are punishable by up to seven years in prison, per Human Rights Watch.
  • Qatar is also believed to have bribed FIFA for its winning bid, per the U.S. Department of Justice.

State of play: Not everyone is taking the same "stick to soccer" approach. Some European cities won't screen matches in public places, Denmark will make a statement with its jerseys, and nine European captains plan to wear rainbow armbands in support of the LGBTQ+ community.

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7. 🌎 Photos from abroad
Photo: Nick Taylor/Liverpool FC via Getty Images

LIVERPOOL — Mo Salah scored the decisive goal in Liverpool's 1-0 win over Manchester City on Sunday, snapping City's 21-match unbeaten run in Premier League play.

Photo: James Chance/Getty Images

LONDON — Claressa Shields beat Savannah Marshall by unanimous decision in front of a sold-out crowd on Saturday to become the undisputed middleweight champion for the second time.

Photo: Diego Souto/Quality Sport Images via Getty Images

MADRID — Real Madrid beat Barcelona, 3-1, on Sunday in the 250th edition of El Clásico to remain undefeated in their pursuit of a second straight La Liga title.

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8. 📺 Watchlist: Game 5 in the Bronx
Yankee Stadium

Photo: Jamie Squire/Getty Images

 

The Yankees host the Guardians tonight (7pm ET, TBS) in a winner-take-all Game 5, with the victor advancing to the ALCS.

  • Starters: Jameson Taillon takes the ball for New York after pitching Friday in relief. Cleveland will counter with Aaron Rivale, who hasn't seen game action in 11 days.
  • Of note: This is the fourth game in four days for these two teams due to Game 2 being postponed last Thursday.

More to watch:

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9. ⚾️ MLB trivia
Astros celebrating

Photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images

 

The Astros' streak of six straight League Championship Series appearances is the second-longest ever.

  • Question: Which team has the longest streak?
  • Hint: National League.

Answer at the bottom.

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10. 🍿 Top plays: Weekend edition
Ivan Toney

Brentford's Ivan Toney backheels the ball past the defender and goalkeeper. Photo: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

 
  1. ⚽️ No-look finish
  2. 🏒 Great effort, sick goal
  3. 🏈 Five fingers, six points
  4. 🏒 Epic save
  5. 🏒 Another epic save
  6. ⚾️ Nestor!
  7. 🏈 Hurdling a human
  8. 🥏 355-foot eagle
  9. 🏈 62 yards, no prob
  10. 🏀 Chasedown block

Watch all 10.

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A message from Upside

How to fight inflation with your everyday spending
 
 

The Upside app pays you back a little from each purchase to help offset rising costs. On average, users earn $148 annually.

You can get cash back at:

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Talk tomorrow,

Kendall "What a weekend" Baker

Trivia answer: Braves (eight straight NLCS appearances from 1991 to 1999)

🙏 Have a great day! Follow us for more (@kendallbaker and @jeffreytracy). Friends can sign up here. Thanks to Bryan McBournie for copy edits.

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