🏛️ New MAGA caucus

Plus: Biden "meh" voters make history | Monday, October 17, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By UPS   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Oct 17, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,051 words ... 4 minutes.     1 big thing: Congress braces for Jan. 6 caucus Photo illustration: Maura Losch. Photos: Scott Olson/Getty Images, Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images and Dustin Franz/Bloomberg via Getty Images   Three people who were on Capitol grounds on Jan. 6 stand a serious chance of returning to the site of the deadly riot next January — this time as duly elected Republican members of Congress, Axios' Andrew Solender reports: Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin's 3rd District J.R. Majewski in Ohio's 9th District Sandy Smith in North Carolina's 1st District Why it matters: Democrats who were on the other side of the attack aren't prepared to simply forgive and forget. Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) told Axios: "I know I won't feel safe with them in office, potentially having offices right next to ours, having to run into them in the hallway, knowing that they get all the same privileges and access." "It's terrifying, personally, because these were people who were with violent insurrectionists," said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.). Driving the news: The Pelosi-aligned House Majority PAC plans to cancel its ad reservations in Wisconsin's 3rd District, Axios reported this month — potentially ceding the race to Van Orden. Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL, has acknowledged being at the Capitol but claims he left when it was "clear that a protest had become a mob." But the Daily Beast reports he was behind police barricades after the violence began. Majewski, the Republican challenging Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), said in a local interview he was "responsible for 60-70 people at the Capitol" and left when "everything started to happen." Smith tweeted on Jan. 6 that she "marched from the [Washington] Monument to the Capitol." Republican leadership spent heavily in an unsuccessful bid to stop her from winning the nomination. Zoom out: None of the three has been charged in connection to the riot, and all have now received some level of institutional support from House GOP leadership. Even House Republicans who voted to certify the election told Axios the conference should make room for them. "I don't know what their motives were, but they have a right to peacefully protest," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.). Law-breaking and assaulting law enforcement are "unacceptable," Bacon added, but "I doubt any of our three people" did that. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) agreed, telling Axios: "It's important to recognize there is no indication that any of them [were at] the riot inside the Capitol." What we're watching: This dynamic could impact Congress' already frayed capacity for bipartisan work. After Jan. 6, some Democrats refused to co-lead bills with Republicans who voted to decertify presidential electors. "It's hard enough to work together to get things done ... across the aisle in a country that's horrifically polarized," said Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), and then "you couple this, which is both personal and professional." Share this story.     2. 📖 What we're reading: MTG's metamorphosis Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images   The day after Jan. 6, British white nationalist Katie Hopkins observed in an interview with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.): "It's almost as if you're one of them — you're almost like one of those who could've been at the rally." "I am one of those people. That's exactly who I am," Greene responded, before hastily clarifying that she completely condemns those who attacked the Capitol. "I know there were bad actors involved and investigations are underway — and it's Antifa," the freshman firebrand added for good measure. Why it matters: The episode is a data point in Greene's "metamorphosis over the past year and a half from pariah to a position of undeniable influence" within the GOP, Robert Draper writes in a New York Times adaption from his new book, "Weapons of Mass Delusion: When the Republican Party Lost Its Mind." Within the House Republican conference, [Leader Kevin] McCarthy has assiduously courted her support, inviting her to high-level policy meetings ... and, according to someone with knowledge of their exchanges, offering to create a new leadership position for her. McCarthy's spokesman denies that the minority leader has made such an offer. When I asked Greene if the report was inaccurate, she smiled and said, "Not necessarily." But then she added: "I don't have to have a leadership position. I think I already have one, without having one." Read the full profile.     3. 🤷 Biden "meh" voters make history Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Historical data from Pew shows that for the first time ever, voters who "somewhat" or "moderately" disapprove of a Democratic president — as opposed to "strongly" disapprove — are still favoring Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, Cook Political Report's Amy Walter writes. Why it matters: Statewide Democratic candidates have continued to outpace President Biden's approval rating, a dynamic driven in part by the willingness of Biden "meh" voters, as Walter has dubbed them, to support the president's party down-ballot. Walter points out that "meh" voters "were a big part of the Biden coalition in 2020" — voting for the Democrat not because they loved him, but because they hated former President Trump. Yes, but: These moderate disapprovers are a fluid group who may not make enough of a difference to push Democratic candidates over the finish line — if they even show up to vote. The bottom line: "[I]f gravity and history are upended this year, and Democrats win in states where Biden is deeply underwater, these 'meh' voters will be a big reason why," Walter writes.     A message from UPS The best drivers get the best compensation     Full-time UPS delivery drivers average $95,000 per year, plus UPS contributes another $50,000 annually to health, welfare and pension benefits. After four years, a full-time UPS driver averages $42 an hour in wages. Learn how UPS delivers careers.     4. ⛰️ Trump's Colorado sabotage Joe O'Dea on the set of "Meet the Press" on Sept. 18. Photo: William B. Plowman/NBC via Getty Images   Former President Trump broke his silence today on Colorado's Senate race, trashing GOP candidate Joe O'Dea as a "Republican in name only," and urging followers not to support him, Axios Denver's John Frank writes. "MAGA doesn't vote for stupid people with big mouths," Trump posted on Truth Social, a day after O'Dea said on CNN he would "actively campaign" against the former president if he ran again in 2024. Why it matters: The GOP's nomination of O'Dea — a moderate businessman who has repeatedly distanced himself from Trump — has helped make the race against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet more competitive. But Republicans can't win in blue-tilting Colorado — where Democrats hold a 125,000 voter-registration advantage — without a unified base and support from a significant number of unaffiliated voters. Share this story.     5. 🎓 Parting shot Photo: Bonnie Cash/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images More than 8 million people have submitted student loan forgiveness applications since a beta site launched Friday, President Biden announced today alongside Education Secretary Miguel Cardona. How to sign up.     A message from UPS The best healthcare package is affordable for everyone     At UPS, our full- and part-time union employees get health care benefits with no premiums and low or no coinsurance and copays. This way, they can focus on the things that matter most. Find out what these benefits mean to our employees and their families.   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. 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