News : The global economy is sinking. No one’s sending lifeboats.

Monday, October 17, 2022

The global economy is sinking. No one’s sending lifeboats.

Oct 17, 2022

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The global economy is hurtling toward a cliff. For the first time in recent memory, the U.S. isn't in a position to manage a response.

Surging inflation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe's looming energy crisis and a rudderless U.K. government are just a few components of the Rubik's Cube of calamities that central banks and governments face as they try to avoid painful recessions.

While a "sense of dread" surrounded last week's IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, our Kate Davidson and Victoria Guida report that the U.S. is struggling to mount a coordinated response . The problem is that the U.S., like other nations, is largely focused on trying to contain domestic crises. The Federal Reserve is at the forefront , as it ratchets up interest rates and fuels recession risks in a bid to control rising prices, putting pressure on economies around the world.

"At the end of the day, a lot of the national policies are on their own course," said Mark Sobel, U.S. chair of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and a former Treasury official. "The Fed is going to do what the Fed is going to do, and the Europeans are going to do what they're going to do."

Financial leaders were divided on a host of issues and were three days late in releasing a G-20 statement based on meetings this week, Bloomberg's Eric Martin reports . Among the rifts: Russia sanctions, Saudi Arabia's oil output and global currencies.

IT'S MONDAY — And MM is celebrating yet another postseason collapse for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Send us your tips, story ideas or feedback to get us over the Friday finish line: kdavidson@politico.com and ssutton@politico.com .

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DRIVING THE WEEK

Empire State manufacturing data out at 8:30 a.m. … FDIC meets Tuesday … Housing starts data out Wednesday … The Fed's Beige Book releases Wednesday … Jobless claims out Thursday … Fed Governors Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman speak Thursday … Acting FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg speaks on crypto regulation Thursday … Inflation expectation data out Friday

BOSTIC REVIVES FED TRADING SCANDAL — From Victoria: "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has asked the central bank's inspector-general to look into the financial activity of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, after learning of transactions that didn't comply with Fed ethics rules — the latest in a string of conflict-of-interest violations at the central bank."

The latest blow-up over improper trading by Fed leaders is landing as Congress weighs a trading ban for elected officials that would also cover Fed board members and regional presidents. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who's roasted the Fed's handling of previous trading scandals, has already seized on Bostic's trades as "further evidence of the depth of the ethics problem at the Fed."

WALL STREET BETS — Bloomberg's Bill Allison: "Fueled by $10 million donations from Citadel's Ken Griffin and Blackstone Group's Stephen Schwarzman, a super PAC with close ties to Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell raised $111 million in the third quarter, according to its latest filing with the Federal Election Commission."

DEM CANDIDATES MUM ON BIDEN POLICY — NYT's Jim Tankersley: "Democratic candidates in competitive Senate races this fall have spent little time on the trail or the airwaves touting the centerpiece provisions of their party's $1.9 trillion economic rescue package … In part, that is because the rescue plan has become fodder for Republicans to attack Democrats over rapidly rising prices."

WHEN GAFFES MOVE POLICY — Our Zack Colman and Karl Mathiesen: "David Malpass' job as president of the World Bank appears safe despite calls for his ouster by climate advocates, but the recent controversy over his climate views may have helped ram through changes to help clean energy despite his resistance."

BANKMAN-FRIED'S BILLION-DOLLAR BLOWBACK — Friday's MM exclusive with Sam Bankman-Fried is triggering a backlash from Democratic activists. With the crypto billionaire and political megadonor saying he's unlikely to spend heavily in the general, the progressive group Indivisible believes the "obvious goal was to kneecap as many progressives as possible in a time of growing progressive power in Congress," Indivisible co-executive director Leah Greenberg said. Read more in POLITICO Influence .

Fed File

ANOTHER FED TARGET FOR THE LEFT FLANK — From Victoria: The Fed "unanimously approved U.S. Bank's acquisition of the core U.S. retail operations of Japanese-owned MUFG Union Bank, a decision that could cause blowback from progressive critics who maintain the bank merger approval process is too lax."

SPEAKING OF WHICH — "The Federal Reserve is 'hurting' the United States' economic situation as the country prepares for a possible recession, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Sunday."

Economy

HERE IT COMES — WSJ's By Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros: "The U.S. will enter a recession in the coming 12 months as the Federal Reserve battles to bring down persistently high inflation , the economy contracts and employers cut jobs in response, according to The Wall Street Journal's latest survey of economists."

YIMBYS HAVE ENTERED THE CHAT — NYT's Mihir Zaveri: "A housing shortage and affordability crisis may be changing the political calculus for some progressives who have traditionally been among the most fervent critics of the real estate industry."

BIG MERGER — Bloomberg's Brendan Case, Michelle F Davis, and Ruth David: "Kroger Co. agreed to buy Albertsons Cos. in a deal with an enterprise value of $24.6 billion that would create a US grocery giant with almost 5,000 stores and annual revenue of about $200 billion."

Regulatory Corner

CFTC COMMISSIONER WANTS SAFEGUARDS FOR 'HOUSEHOLD' TRADERS— Our Declan Harty: "A top CFTC official wants to tailor what it means to be a 'retail investor' in a bid to set up safer guardrails for the flock of everyday people now trading in products that fall under the once-obscure agency's umbrella. … 'There has to be a cultural shift at the CFTC in how we think about retail,' [CFTC Commissioner] Christy Goldsmith Romero said in an interview.'"

Crypto

IT MIGHT NOT HAVE LEGS — WSJ's Jeff Horwitz, Salvador Rodriguez and Meghan Bobrowsky: "Nearly a year after Mark Zuckerberg rebranded Facebook as Meta Platforms Inc. in a bet-the-company move on the metaverse, internal documents show the transition grappling with glitchy technology, uninterested users and a lack of clarity about what it will take to succeed."

STABLECOINS — From Sam: "SEC Chair Gary Gensler on Friday said certain dollar-pegged stablecoins could fall under his agency's jurisdiction, a view that could conflict with a push to put them under banking regulation."

AT LEAST ONE CRYPTO EXEC'S STILL GIVING — Our Matt Dixon: "A cryptocurrency exchange whose co-founder who has been accused of creating a 'hateful' work environment and publicly said he would consider breaking the law if it was best for his company, last month gave $100,000 to Gov. Ron DeSantis' re-election bid ."

Jobs Report

Karen Lawson has been promoted to executive vice president for policy and supervision at the Conference of State Bank Supervisors. She joined CSBS in 2021 as a senior vice president.

Fly Around

Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged his nation will prevail in its fight to develop strategically important tech, underscoring Beijing's concern over a US campaign to separate it from cutting-edge chip capabilities. — Bloomberg

President Joe Biden laid into beleaguered U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss' tax-cutting agenda Saturday, calling it a 'mistake' and warning that a lack of 'sound policy in other countries' could hold back the United States. — Our Matt Honeycombe-Foster

Having fired her chancellor of the exchequer days ago, U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss must now battle to save her own job after what many political analysts and members of her own party regard as the worst start to a British premiership in modern times. — WSJ's Max Colchester

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