The quants versus the forecasters

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Oct 11, 2022 View in browser   By Steven Shepard John Fetterman takes photos with supporters following a rally. | Nate Smallwood/Getty Images A SCIENCE AND AN ART — It's the quants versus the pundits all over again. The biggest prize in November's elections is control of the 50-50 Senate. That much everyone can agree on. But Democrats' chances of retaining the chamber in an otherwise challenging midterm differ significantly depending on whom you ask. On one side are the poll-based modelers, like FiveThirtyEight and Decision Desk HQ . As of this afternoon, FiveThirtyEight's "Classic" polling model says Democrats have about a 3-in-4 chance to keep control of the Senate. In the other camp are the political handicappers or forecasters, including this correspondent, who largely see the battle to control the Senate as a jump-ball. (POLITICO's Election Forecast, which are my predictions, calls it a "Toss-Up.") Where can you see these discrepancies most clearly? There's Pennsylvania, where Decision Desk HQ's model gives Democrat John Fetterman a 70 percent chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight's "Classic" model is even more bullish, at 76 percent. My view? I've had Pennsylvania in our "Toss-Up" column for months, and my competitors at the Cook Political Report recently downgraded Fetterman's chances, moving the race from "Lean Democratic" to "Toss-Up." Same with Georgia, which all the political forecasters call a "Toss-Up," but where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock's odds of winning are currently pegged at 74 percent and 66 percent in DDHQ and FiveThirtyEight's polling-based models, respectively. Both sides are in agreement on Nevada, calling it a "Toss-Up," but they differ on the other close races. FiveThirtyEight's "Classic" model groups Nevada in with North Carolina and Ohio as races without a clear favorite, while forecasters consider the latter two as leaning toward Republicans. So what does the most famous political quant make of the difference? "I think the forecasters are very good at their jobs, though they also have a couple of predictable habits," FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver told me, pointing to forecasters' conservative approach to putting more races in a "Toss-Up" column and deliberate speed in making changes to account for new dynamics, like the Supreme Court's June decision reversing federal abortion rights. "[Pennsylvania GOP candidate Mehmet] Oz has a shot, for instance," Silver added, "but I just don't think any data-driven answer would get you to Pennsylvania being a 50/50-ish race." We forecasters don't just rely on public data to make our predictions, of course. I talk to sources, occasionally hit the road on the campaign trail and — yes — pore over polling data. And it's all of that mixed together that's led me to the conclusion that neither candidate has a significant advantage in the race four weeks from today, even if Fetterman is currently leading Oz in the polls. Ultimately, Silver and the data modelers have one big thing right: The battle to control the Senate comes down to math. And a stalemate — the latest polls point to a 50-50 breakdown after the election, too — means Democrats would retain the chamber. Silver does see an important role for qualitative election forecasters like me, especially given polls' consistent underestimation of Republicans in recent elections. That's why he has another model — FiveThirtyEight calls it the "Deluxe" version — that includes "experts' ratings." Not surprisingly, Democrats' odds are lower in that forecast. "This cycle, I've tended to trust the forecasters more than the polls on Wisconsin and Ohio, where they've had a more bearish outlook for Democrats," Silver said. Ohio is a great example: FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan ever-so-slightly ahead of Republican J.D. Vance, by 0.3 percentage points. But the site's 2020 Ohio polling average had then-President Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden by less than a point. Trump won by 8 points. Are the polls going to be wrong in the same direction, in the same places, as they were in 2020? It's obviously too soon to say. But many qualitative forecasters are pricing in skepticism about the polls that's missing in a model that relies solely or mostly on them. And that's the big difference right now. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at sshepard@politico.com or on Twitter at @POLITICO_Steve.   JOIN WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA:  President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE.     Poll Watcher 51.3 percent The percentage of women voters in Georgia who say they would support incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock for Senate compared with 42.0 percent for Republican candidate Herschel Walker, according to a new poll from Emerson College/The Hill. In an August Emerson poll, 45.6 percent of women said they'd vote for Warnock versus 40.6 percent who supported Walker. 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Herrera and Martinez have since stepped down from their leadership roles.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     AROUND THE WORLD Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid speaks during his party's opening election campaign rally in August. | Amir Levy/Getty Images COASTAL COMPROMISE —  Israel's prime minister said today that the country has reached a "historic agreement" with neighboring Lebanon over their shared maritime border that could pave the way for natural gas exploration and reduce tensions between the enemy countries. The agreement, coming after several years of U.S.-mediated talks, would mark a major breakthrough in relations between Israel and Lebanon, which formally have been at war since Israel's establishment in 1948. But the deal still faces some obstacles, including legal and political challenges in Israel. Lebanese officials indicated they would approve the agreement. The offices of both Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said they had received calls from Biden congratulating them. Lapid's office quoted the U.S. leader as saying: "You are making history." At stake are rights over exploiting undersea natural gas reserves in areas of the eastern Mediterranean claimed by the two countries. Lebanon hopes gas exploration will help lift its country out of its spiraling economic crisis. Israel also hopes to exploit gas reserves while also easing tensions with its northern neighbor. Men lay tarmac over a crater left by a missile strike today in Kyiv, Ukraine. 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Many Ukrainians argue that Russia's new commander, Sergey Surovikin, infamous for his targeting of civilian targets in Syria, is likely to make the destruction of infrastructure a key part of his offensive. Realizing this danger well before Surovikin's appointment, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pressing Western allies for advanced air defenses, precisely to protect civilian targets including power stations and dams. Biden promised to deliver on Monday night. In Kyiv, major private power supplier DTEK, controlled by the nation's richest oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, has announced that rolling power cuts may be necessary starting today. According to the company, Kyiv residents should expect blackouts lasting up to four hours per day. Nightly Number 1,200 years The amount of time that's elapsed since the last drought this bad in the Colorado River. 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