Tuesday, October 11, 2022

📺 Jan. 6 curtain call

Plus: Trump's "inevitable indictment" | Tuesday, October 11, 2022
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Oct 11, 2022

Welcome back to Sneak. The midterms are four weeks from today. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,049 words ... 4 minutes.

📺 Situational awareness: CNN's Jake Tapper sat down with President Biden for a rare interview airing at 9pm ET.

 
 
1 big thing: Jan. 6 committee's curtain call
Illustration of a hand in a spotlight holding a gavel out from behind a red curtain.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

Don't hold your breath for surprise appearances from former Vice President Mike Pence, conservative activist Ginni Thomas or self-proclaimed "dirty trickster" Roger Stone when the House Jan. 6 committee takes the stage again on Thursday, Axios' Alayna Treene reports.

The big picture: The committee's last hearing before the midterms, and perhaps ever, will focus overwhelmingly on one central antagonist — former President Trump — and won't feature live testimony, people familiar with the plans tell Axios.

What we're hearing: Lawmakers on the panel want to minimize ancillary players becoming a sideshow and keep the focus on evidence tying Trump to the attack.

Details: The panel will refocus on Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his role in other events before, during and after the violence on Jan. 6.

  • The committee may show some of the roughly 800,000 pages of Secret Service materials received in response to a subpoena about their communications on and around the attack, sources told Axios. A crucial question has been why some Secret Service text messages from Jan. 5-6 went missing.
  • The committee is also expected to use some evidence from a Danish film crew that followed Stone for a documentary, titled "A Storm Foretold." The crew shared text messages with the committee showing Stone's relationship with extremist groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, as well as how he sought a pardon after Jan. 6.
  • While the panel may reference some testimony from Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, her closed-door testimony to the committee in late September was transcribed but not videotaped.

Between the lines: The hearing also will serve as a closing moment on the congressional stage for the two Republicans on the panel — Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) — who are taking steps to solidify the legitimacy of their political leadership after being cast out of their party.

  • After voting to impeach Trump, Kinzinger announced he would not seek re-election. Cheney lost her GOP primary to a pro-Trump challenger.
  • Kinzinger today announced a series of endorsements for Democratic candidates.
  • Cheney has publicly urged voters to oppose Arizona's GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem, saying she'd "absolutely" vote for a Democrat in these races.

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2. 💰 Scoop: Class of '18 all-stars
Elaine Luria

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.). Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

Out of least 14 incumbent House Democrats who raised more than $1 million in the third quarter of 2022, all but one were first elected in 2018, Axios' Andrew Solender has learned.

  • Nearly half of those raised more than $2 million.

Why it matters: These members — elected on a wave of anti-Trump sentiment in 2018 — are among the Democrats most vulnerable to being unseated by Republican challengers in the Nov. 8 midterms.

  • With the cash-strapped national party having to make difficult choices to cut spending across the map, campaign-level fundraising could play a decisive role in these pivotal seats.

What we're watching: The DCCC believes it needs at least another $20 million to hold the House and is asking the DNC to double its previous $7.5 million donation, according to Punchbowl News.

See the list.

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3. 🔥 McConnell rapid-fire
Illustration of mitch mcconnell and trump

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told CNN's Manu Raju he does not have a "litmus test" for whether his party should be more aligned with former President Trump or his top critic Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

  • "I'm for people that get the Republican nomination, and for winning, because if we win we get to decide what the agenda is, and they don't," McConnell said in a wide-ranging interview.

Other highlights:

  • On flawed GOP candidates: McConnell said "we'll find out" whether Republicans were heading for a repeat of the 2010 and 2012 Senate elections, when weak nominees cost the party the majority. He said Republicans would stick with embattled Georgia nominee Herschel Walker and "scrap to the finish."
  • On Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse's expected resignation: McConnell said he has personally urged Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts to seek the seat soon to be vacated by Sasse.
  • On fundraising: "I've got a lot of bases to cover," McConnell said when asked why his Senate Leadership Fund super PAC had stopped spending in Arizona. "Many of these general election campaigns have been woefully underfunded, not because of the NRSC, but because of the candidates' campaigns themselves."

💸 Scoop: Tiffany Smiley, the Republican challenging Sen. Patty Murray in Washington State, raised $6 million in Q3 — giving her new ammo to make the case to McConnell and outside Republican groups that her race is competitive.

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4. ⚖️ What we're reading: Trump's "inevitable indictment"
Merrick Garland

Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

 

In a meticulous new profile of Merrick Garland, The Atlantic's Franklin Foer offers a compelling argument for why the attorney general will not indict former President Trump — before ultimately concluding that the historic alternative is "inevitable":

The excruciating conundrum that Garland faces is also a liberating one. He can't win politically. He will either antagonize the right or disappoint the left. Whatever he decides, he will become deeply unpopular. He will unavoidably damage the reputation of the institution he loves so dearly with a significant portion of the populace.
Faced with so unpalatable a choice, he doesn't really have one. Because he can't avoid tearing America further apart, he'll decide based on the evidence — and on whether that evidence can persuade a jury. ...
That's what he's tried to emphatically explain over the past months. Every time he's asked about the former president, he responds, "No one is above the law." He clearly gets frustrated that his answer fails to satisfy his doubters. I believe that his indictment of Trump will prove that he means it.

Read the full profile.

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5. 🐘 GOP cavalry comes to Georgia
Sens. Tom Cotton (left) and Rick Scott (right) lend their support to Herschel Walker's Senate campaign in Georgia. Screenshot: CSPAN

Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) campaigned today with Herschel Walker in Georgia, where they were determined to deflect attention from allegations the GOP Senate nominee paid for a woman's abortion in 2009.

  • "This race is too important for me to give up or for me to stop," Walker told ABC News. "So, October surprise is not going to faze me."
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📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

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