| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Tuesday. Florida's election will be held in exactly four weeks. Here's where things stand: Final day — Today is the voter registration deadline. The administration of Gov. Ron DeSantis is not extending the deadline even though parts of the state are just now beginning to recover from Hurricane Ian. (Back in 2018, Florida Democrats successfully sued to get the deadline extended due to Hurricane Michael.) Republicans outnumber Democrats statewide by nearly 270,000 (as of Aug. 31) and promises by the Democrats to boost their voter registration efforts ahead of this year's election appear to be illusory. The incumbent — The governor's race is entering its final stretch and DeSantis and his team have maintained a commanding lead in fundraising, which has translated into a significant advantage on television ads. (It was a roughly 4-to-1 advantage in September.) DeSantis has been primarily focused on Hurricane Ian for the past two weeks, which has also been an overwhelming avalanche of television coverage on top of those ads. Just out — The DeSantis campaign did launch a new 60-second ad on Monday that featured Casey DeSantis talking about her battle with cancer and how the governor supported her during that time. The lone debate between DeSantis and challenger Charlie Crist has been rescheduled for Oct. 24, so it doesn't appear that the governor will refrain completely from campaign activity between now and Nov. 8. The challenger — The Crist campaign — which has not gotten any significant outside financial help since the primary — is going to make a final try to refocus on the looming election. The Democratic nominee is holding a "Choice Day of Action" today to try to bring attention to DeSantis' position on abortion, including holding seven different events and focusing social media accounts on the issue. The campaign is also launching a new television ad called "Need to Know" that features nurses talking about abortion. (And there will be billboards … yes, billboards.) Closing argument — The point of view from the Crist campaign is that DeSantis' opposition to abortion (he signed into law a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy and has signaled support for additional restrictions without yet offering any specifics) is the single most persuasive issue that could influence voters. The most recent polls, however, have shown DeSantis with a commanding double-digit lead. In the Senate race — It's a different backdrop in the Senate race between Democrat Val Demings and GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. Demings has had the financial resources to be on the air for months now, although it's readily apparent that national Democrats have chosen to bypass the state and have left her to largely fend for herself. Both sides have hit each other with ads and Demings has maintained a busy campaign schedule. Demings has gone after Rubio for his stance on abortion and gun control, but a poll released last week showed that Rubio has a six-point lead in the contest. Up next — Today, Demings plans to go after Rubio for his decision to sign onto a bill to repeal the recently passed legislation that allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices. The two have also been exchanging barbs over hurricane relief funding, but Rubio sounds relatively confident about his chances, telling a radio show on Friday that "there's no way that this state is going to vote for the same political party that controls the country that's headed in the wrong direction." — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | JOIN WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA: President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | COMING TO YOUR LIVING ROOM — "TV debate between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Charlie Crist is back on ," by USA Today Network-Florida's John Kennedy: "The only TV debate between Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist has been rescheduled for Oct. 24 — after being postponed in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. WPEC-TV CBS 12 in West Palm Beach will air the debate at 7 p.m., from Fort Pierce's Sunrise Theater. It's also being broadcast statewide on TV stations after being moved from its original Oct. 12 date. Hurricane Ian's impact on Southwest Florida has commanded much of DeSantis' recent focus. Crist, a three-term member of Congress from St. Petersburg and a former Florida Republican governor, also has been making stops in the region, helping deliver food and supplies."
OVERVIEW — "Democrats were already struggling in Florida. Then came Hurricane Ian," by CNN's Steve Contorno: "Hurricane Ian's arrival a month before the election has pushed politics to the back burner as state and local leaders continue to deal with the fallout of the deadliest storm to hit Florida in generations. It has been a challenge for Democratic candidates to turn the attention back to the campaign trail with so much focus on the recovery and so many residents in southwest Florida homeless."
BY THE NUMBERS — The latest campaign finance filings show that Ron DeSantis raised more than $5.87 million during the period of Sept. 24 to Sept. 30, while Charlie Crist raised $2.14 million. The total includes money raised for campaign accounts and for political committees controlled by the candidates.
Following the money — The weekly total for DeSantis included a $3 million donation from the Republican Governors Association and $1 million from the Seminole Tribe of Florida and more than $190,000 in public matching money. Crist's total included $685,000 from the Democratic Governors Association and more than $450,000 in taxpayer money for his campaign.
In the bank — DeSantis has nearly $106 million unspent while Crist has more than $4.9 million, according to state reports (which don't reflect any future planned expenditures). — "Demings knocks Rubio for missing hurricane relief vote. She opposed some similar bills," by McClatchy D.C.'s Alex Roarty — "Sens. Rick Scott and Tom Cotton to campaign for Herschel Walker in Georgia," by NBC News' Summer Concepcion and Allie Raffa — " Florida GOP 'ghost' candidates are skipping debates, forums," by Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello — "Election 2022: GOP Rep. Webster heavily favored in race ," by Orlando Sentinel's Skyler Swisher — "Pasco judge disqualifies DeSantis-backed school board candidate, lawyers say," by Tampa Bay Times' Jeffrey S. Solochek
| | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | SITUATIONAL AWARENESS — Nearly two weeks after Hurricane Ian hit, more than 19,000 homes and businesses remain without power, according to new figures posted this morning by the Florida Public Service Commission. The official numbers from the state released on Monday evening said there had been 102 fatalities associated with the storm, including 52 deaths in Lee County. In a number that keeps growing each day, insurers have reported more than $4.22 billion in estimated insured losses and more than 449,000 claims. WHAT'S NEXT — "Search for victims done, Florida coast aims for Ian recovery," by The Associated Press' Jay Reeves: "An army of 42,000 utility workers has restored electricity to more than 2.5 million businesses and homes in Florida since Hurricane Ian's onslaught, and Brenda Palmer's place is among them. By the government's count, she and her husband Ralph are part of a success story. Yet turning on the lights in a wrecked mobile home that's likely beyond repair and reeks of dried river mud and mold isn't much solace to people who lost a lifetime of work in a few hours of wind, rain and rising seawater. Sorting through soggy old photos of her kids in the shaded ruins of her carport, Palmer couldn't help but cry." — "Gov. DeSantis: Florida shifts to 'rebuild and recover mode' 12 days after Hurricane Ian," by Sarasota Herald-Tribune's Jesse Mendoza
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In this photo shot with a drone, shrimp boats lie grounded atop what was a mobile home park, following the passage of Hurricane Ian, on San Carlos Island in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., Friday, Oct. 7, 2022. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) | AP | AFTERMATH — "South Florida's home rental market to get pricier after Hurricane Ian. Here's why," by Miami Herald's Rebecca San Juan: "More snowbirds are expected to flock to South Florida in the coming winter season because of Hurricane Ian's devastation across Southwest Florida. These seasonal residents should expect to pay higher rents here in Miami-Dade and Broward counties due to stronger demand for a tight supply of homes, experts say. Pricing pressure on rental homes is a prime example of the anticipated ripple effects from Ian's property destruction on the Gulf Coast on the already largely unaffordable housing market in Southeast Florida." FALLOUT — Hurricane Ian traumatized Floridians. It also erased their nest eggs, by POLITICO's Zack Colman and Katy O'Donnell: Hurricane Ian has displaced thousands of Floridians' whose homes are now uninhabitable. The storm took their safety nets with it, too. As Florida tallies the immediate tab from its deadliest hurricane in decades, the destruction it wreaked on homes will erase retirees' nest eggs and families' primary way of passing along wealth to new generations. That exposed the dangers of American dependence on housing as most people's financial backstop and lifeline. — "' Nothing's left': Hurricane Ian leaves emotional toll behind," by The Associated Press' Bobby Caina Calvan and Brian Melley — "Hurricane Ian forecast cone may have been cone of confusion for some people ," by Palm Beach Post's Kimberly Miller — "How storm surge kills: Hurricane Ian showed Florida why we're told to leave," by Tampa Bay Times' Zachary T. Sampson, Bethany Barnes, Kirby Wilson and Lauren Peace — "Shutting an agency managing sprawl might have put more people in Hurricane Ian's way," by WLRN's Jenny Staletovich and NPR's Nick Underwood — " These 3 factors created a 'worst-case scenario' with Hurricane Ian that proved deadly," by Palm Beach Post's Kimberly Miller and Chris Persaud — " Hurricane Ian left fingerprints on Everglades, but wasn't a mangroves killer like Irma," by Miami Herald's Alex Harris
| | MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS | | ANOTHER ONE — Lawsuit accuses DeSantis of withholding records over migrant flights, by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: An open government group on Monday asserted in a lawsuit that the DeSantis administration is improperly withholding public records associated with the two charter flights that brought nearly 50 Venezuelan migrants to the resort island in Massachusetts. The Florida Center for Government Accountability wants a judge to order the DeSantis administration to turn over phone and text logs for DeSantis' chief of staff James Uthmeier as well as records exchanged with the company that set up the flights and copies of the waivers signed by the migrants who were on the flights. THE POLITICAL ANGLE — 'Republicans win on pocketbook issues': DeSantis' migrant flights aren't rousing voters nationally, by POLITICO's Lisa Kashinsky: But weeks after the migrants landed on the island, DeSantis and GOP Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's migrant transports have shown little effect on the midterms beyond pumping up the bases for the two Republican governors who are both running for reelection. Immigration isn't leapfrogging abortion or the economy on lists of voters' top concerns in national polls and surveys in key battleground states. Spending on immigration-focused ads is up in Florida, Texas and Arizona — where term-limited Republican Gov. Doug Ducey has also bused migrants to blue cities — but not elsewhere.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | AS THE PAGES TURN — "Trump lawyer Christina Bobb speaks to federal investigators in Mar-a-Lago case," by NBC News' Marc Caputo: "Christina Bobb, the attorney who signed a letter certifying that all sensitive records in former President Donald Trump's possession had been returned to the government, spoke to federal investigators Friday and named two other Trump attorneys involved with the case, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The certification statement, signed June 3 by Bobb, indicated that Trump was in compliance with a May grand jury subpoena and no longer had possession of a host of documents with classification markings at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, according to the three sources who do not want to comment publicly because of the sensitive nature of the sprawling federal investigation." HMM — "Key shareholder vote on Truth Social delayed, while Trump Media exec gets suspended," by Miami Herald's Jay Weaver: "The merger between a Miami-based investment company and former President Donald Trump's media firm remained uncertain Monday, when a critical shareholder vote on a deadline extension was put on hold. Patrick Orlando, CEO and chairman of Digital World Acquisition Corp., said he delayed the vote until Nov. 3 so stockholders in the publicly traded company have more time to consider a yearlong extension that would allow more time for federal regulators to review the merger with Trump Media & Technology Group. The regulatory extension is considered crucial to Trump's goal to create a Florida-based social-media platform as a conservative alternative to Twitter."
| | CORONAVIRUS UPDATES | | THE LADAPO EFFECT — "Scientists question Florida's advice against COVID mRNA vaccines for some men," by Tampa Bay Times' Romy Ellenbogen: "Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo on Friday announced new guidance advising against COVID-19 mRNA vaccines for men aged 18-39, citing a Florida Department of Health study that some have said relies on imperfect data and does little to explain its methodology. The move is the latest instance of Ladapo and the department recommending against coronavirus vaccines for certain age groups. Critique — "Jason Salemi, a University of South Florida epidemiologist, said he supports studying both the risks and benefits of vaccination. But he said the department's study only focused on the risk. "It's not a complete picture," Salemi said. "It's taking one part of it and using that seemingly in isolation to make a recommendation." The state's study, which was not peer-reviewed, used death certificate data and information from the state's reportable disease repository to analyze information on Floridians who died within 25 weeks of receiving an mRNA vaccine." — "Feds rebuke Florida's surgeon general's advice to young men on COVID vaccine," by Orlando Sentinel's Caroline Catherman — Twitter blocks — then restores – Covid-19 vaccination post from Florida's surgeon general, by POLITICO's David Kihara
| | Gaetz-gate | | WINDING DOWN? — "The Justice Department's sex trafficking investigation into Rep. Matt Gaetz seems stalled, attorneys say," by NBC News' Marc Caputo: "But the sex-trafficking investigation into [Rep. Matt] Gaetz now appears stalled, according to seven attorneys who represent witnesses, people who have been subpoenaed or have spoken to investigators. The attorneys briefed on aspects of the case say federal investigators appear stymied by concerns about the credibility of two key witnesses or a lack of direct evidence implicating Gaetz, who has denied all wrongdoing."
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | GATOR GROWL — "UF greets presidential finalist Ben Sasse with protests, tough questions," by Tampa Bay Times' Divya Kumar: "Students and faculty at the University of Florida gave U.S. Sen Ben Sasse a raucous welcome to campus Monday, greeting the Nebraska Republican with biting questions and a loud protest as he sought to introduce himself as the school's likely next president. Introduced last week as the only finalist for the job, the 50-year-old Sasse faced opposition to his stances against same-sex marriage, his past efforts to do away with tenure and a decision by UF leaders to keep much of the selection process secret." — " Gainesville's LGBTQ community speaks out on Ben Sasse as likely next UF president," by The Gainesville Sun's Andrew Caplan |  FILE - Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., listens during a confirmation hearing for Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, March 23, 2022. Sasse is the sole finalist to become the president of the University of Florida, the school said Thursday, and the GOP senator has indicated that he will take the job. That means he could resign in the coming weeks. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File) | AP | BALLARD HEADS TO CALI — Ballard Partners, the mega-successful lobbying outfit that started in Florida, is expanding its reach yet again. The firm is opening its first West Coast office in Los Angeles. Wendy Bruget , who has more than 20 years of experience as a government relations professional and union organizer in California, is joining the firm as a partner and will lead the LA office. Jason Ziven is an attorney at Sanders Roberts LLP and will be the firm's senior advisor. Two current Ballard Partners employees — Tola Thompson and Tom Cerra — will also be part of the LA team. Cerra was a longtime lobbyist who represented Miami-Dade schools. Alberto Carvalho, the current superintendent of the Los Angeles Unified School District, took that job after spending nearly 14 years as the Miami-Dade superintendent. — " Florida school shooter may have been his own worst witness," by The Associated Press' Terry Spencer — "Nikki Fried wants DeSantis to follow Biden's lead: Pardon simple state weed possession ," by Florida Phoenix's Danielle J. Brown — "Court rejects Hillsborough County transportation tax referendum," by Tampa Bay Times' C.T. Bowen
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | BIRTHDAYS: Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Lucy Morgan ... Joni Branch with the Florida Education Association ... (Was Monday) Former Rep. Steve Southerland … Jon Mattise with The Associated Press | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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