| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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But while he enjoys a deep connection with his congregation, some Black political strategists worry that Raphael Warnock has not yet secured the broad support he'll need from Black voters to earn a full term. | Tom Williams/Pool via AP, File | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE WEEK — Today: Three big debates: Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP and STACEY ABRAMS debate at 7 p.m. ( watch here ). In Ohio, Senate hopefuls Rep. TIM RYAN and J.D. VANCE meet in Youngstown at 7 p.m. for their second debate ( watch here ). In Utah, Sen. MIKE LEE and independent EVAN McMULLIN square off at 8 p.m. Eastern ( watch here ). … Tuesday: Rachael's book is released! … Wednesday: Oregon gubernatorial debate with TINA KOTEK, CHRISTINE DRAZAN and BETSY JOHNSON via KGW News at 10 p.m. Eastern. … Thursday: President JOE BIDEN travels to Pennsylvania. ALTAR CALL — We definitely have Georgia on our minds here at Playbook. The Senate race in the Peach State — pitting Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK against football legend HERSCHEL WALKER — is likely the most consequential Senate race on the map this year. Early voting begins today. There's nothing better as a reporter than getting out of the swamp to see what voters are thinking and saying for yourself — so Eugene headed to Atlanta for a check-in. What he found is a sense that the scandal-ridden Walker is sucking up all the political oxygen in the state. Even Warnock campaign aides admit surprise when reporters call to talk about the sitting senator and not about Walker's travails. As grandson of a Baptist preacher, Eugene felt compelled to visit Warnock's church, Ebenezer Baptist — the spiritual home of Rev. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR., whose historic pulpit is located just steps away from the massive, modern sanctuary where Warnock now preaches. In a story out this morning, Eugene explores how Warnock is a man in two worlds. At Ebenezer, no one calls him "senator." It's "reverend," and members of his flock will correct you immediately. But while he enjoys a deep connection with his congregation, some Black political strategists worry that Warnock has not yet secured the broad support he'll need from Black voters to earn a full term. Georgia's Senate race has remained close for months, with Warnock holding a slight — but far from sure — advantage. Those at Ebenezer know it's because the same issues playing out nationally are felt more acutely here. "Georgia is not immune from everything that's happening in the country," said ED JENNINGS, an 11-year member of Ebenezer. "We've had a challenging economy, and the basic issues for Black people are no different than anybody else. If I'm paying $4 at the gas station, that's a problem for me." A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Georgians ranking inflation as their top issue, with a 29-point lead over the second-place issue, abortion. Twelve percent of Democrats ranked inflation as their top issue versus 73% of Republicans. But, Jennings said, there are signs of a shift — starting with gas prices: "We're now down around here to around $3. You're seeing a resurgence in legislative wins, new energy around Dobbs that has kicked things into a new level where things are not where they were." Much of the effort to reelect Warnock has focused on Walker's alleged personal failings, of which there are many — reports that he has played a minimal role in some of his children's lives, a well-documented history of domestic abuse allegations and recent accusations that he paid for a then-girlfriend's abortion in 2009. (POLITICO has not independently verified the abortion reports, which Walker has denied.) Warnock's campaign and allied groups have spent tens of millions of dollars elevating those claims. But some Democrats are starting to wonder if Georgia voters are hearing too much about Walker's liabilities and not enough about Warnock's assets. As one Democratic pollster told Eugene: "There could be a misstep here in trying to disqualify Walker so much and not to requalify what Warnock has actually done. [Voters] get it. They understand Walker is the big bad wolf. They like Warnock. But they don't have anything really good to say. They don't know what he's been doing." LaTOSHA BROWN, co-founder of the Atlanta-based voting rights group Black Voters Matter, told Eugene, "Their sole focus on [Walker] as an individual is not working. He's a Black man. A Black man being flawed, a Black man not having integrity, a Black man not taking care of his children — ain't that what they think about us anyway?" It appears that Warnock himself isn't entirely sure how to handle his opponent. At Friday's debate, likely the only meeting between the two men, Warnock ventured only the most glancing attacks on Walker, preferring instead to highlight his own efforts to work across party lines in the Senate and far-right GOP policy positions. But on another debate stage Sunday night — without Walker — Warnock found a sharper tone. Asked about attacks he's weathered, Warnock parried by saying that Walker "doesn't tell the truth about himself." "He said that he graduated from college. He didn't. He said he was valedictorian of his class. He wasn't. He said he started a business that doesn't even exist. And the other night, when I said he pretended to be a police officer, he presented a badge as if that were proof that he really is a police officer, and now he wants us to think that he's a senator." Full debate report from AP's Bill Barrow Warnock added: "I think the people of Georgia are wise and discerning." BADGE OF HONOR — Hours after her "SNL" corporate colleagues cracked fun at Walker's viral debate moment, NBC's Kristen Welker asked him about the badge he flashed on stage. Walker said one badge was given to him by the sheriff of Johnson County, where he grew up: "Everyone can make fun, but this badge give me the right — wait, let me finish. If anything happened in this county, I have the right to work with the police in getting things done." The sheriff confirmed that account. More from the transcript: "I have badges from all over the — all over Georgia, even from Chatham County. I had to — wait, wait, I had from Chatham County, which is a county, which is a county, uh, which is a county from — *SHOWS BADGE* oh, I have it upside down. Right, which is a county from where Sen. Warnock is from. I have an honorary sheriff badge for that county with limited rights."
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See how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and tell us about your badge collection: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .
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| FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is sending $2.4 million to its independent expenditure affiliate to bolster Democratic Latino candidates in the last few weeks of the campaign. That brings the group's total for the cycle to $5.7 million, the biggest investments it's ever made. It's a significant number for a key player in the Democratic constellation of outside funders — one that had significant success elevating Hispanic candidates in competitive primaries this cycle — and the new spending comes as House campaigns beg for air cover amid a GOP ad barrage. It also highlights the considerable stakes for the CHC, whose membership could see a swing of as many as eight seats depending on November's outcome. BOLD PAC is not yet announcing any specific investments, but the group has myriad potential targets: Of the 16 Hispanic House candidates endorsed by BOLD PAC, half are in battleground races. They include four races that POLITICO rates as toss-ups: RUDY SALAS' bid to unseat Rep. DAVID VALADAO in California's Central Valley; TONY VARGAS' race against Rep. DON BACON in Omaha, Neb.; GABE VASQUEZ's campaign against Rep. YVETTE HERRELL in southern New Mexico; and YADIRA CARAVEO's race for a newly drawn Colorado seat north of Denver. Three other endorsees are in races that POLITICO rates as leaning toward Republicans: ANNETTE TADDEO in Florida's 27th District; MICHELLE VALLEJO in Texas' open 15th District; and MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ in Washington's 3rd. Another endorsee, ANDREA SALINAS, is in a Dem-leaning race in suburban Oregon that some Democrats are getting nervous about . Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.), BOLD PAC's chair, said in a statement that years of infrastructure-building are paying off for the group: "Latinos will be instrumental in the midterm elections and our mission to support Latino candidates is more critical than ever before." BIG PICTURE FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Former VP MIKE PENCE raised $500,000 for Club for Growth Action at a fundraiser Friday with SCOTT BAUGH, who's challenging Democratic Rep. KATIE PORTER in Orange County. Pence's West Coast swing is spanning the various wings of today's GOP, where he's aiming to build broad goodwill and political capital ahead of a potential 2024 run. The Baugh event is sandwiched by an appearance with Valadao today and an endorsement of Arizona's BLAKE MASTERS last week — highlighting that everyone from a Trump impeachment voter to a MAGA star sees value in the Pence imprimatur. HOT ON THE LEFT — The Intercept's Ryan Grim dives deep into how AIPAC and Democratic Majority for Israel took on (and often triumphed over) progressive candidates in Democratic primaries this year. "While DMFI is ostensibly organized around the politics of Israel, in practice, it has become a weapon wielded by the party's centrist faction against its progressive wing," he writes. The groups "have spent so much money that the question of Israel-Palestine now dominates Democratic primaries. Across the country, progressive candidates who a cycle earlier had been loudly vying for national attention with bold ideas to attract small donors were instead keeping their heads down, hoping to stay under the radar of DMFI and AIPAC." THE BIDEN DEMS WANT — Her husband may be unpopular, but requests are pouring in for first lady JILL BIDEN to join Democratic candidates on the campaign trail, NYT's Katie Rogers reports from Orlando, Fla. Nobody in the administration is more sought out, the White House says, and she's a boon for fundraising: "Dr. Biden has become a lifeline for candidates trying to draw attention and money but not the baggage that an appearance with her husband would bring." BATTLE FOR THE SENATE DON'T SLEEP ON O'DEA — Both parties think Colorado Republican JOE O'DEA has a chance at stunning Sen. MICHAEL BENNET in a sleeper surprise, having run perhaps the best GOP campaign in the country, Natalie Allison reports from Denver as voting starts this week. He's a definite underdog, but the relative moderate has stayed laser-focused on inflation. The cerebral Bennet, meanwhile, has embraced the Democratic establishment more than other swing-state senators. But Natalie talks to independent voters who don't mind Bennet, despite frustration with inflation and other issues. STROKE OF INSIGHT — As plenty of debate in the Pennsylvania race turns on Democrat JOHN FETTERMAN's health, WaPo's Colby Itkowitz, Lenny Bernstein and Amanda Morris report from Wallingford that his campaign hasn't made public any official medical information about him since June 3. "He continues to work with a speech therapist and blocks time off nearly every day for a several-mile walk," they report. But four leading neurologists tell the Post that "he appears to have recovered well from a serious stroke with no obvious long-term effects other than his acknowledged difficulty understanding spoken language and finding words." — The Atlantic's Elaine Godfrey finds that Fetterman supporters at a campaign event aren't concerned about his health. "Still, in the absence of those [medical] records, we can only observe and guess." MIKE LEE GOES BOB DOLE — Lee penned an op-ed in The Salt Lake Tribune praising himself in the third person: "Senator Lee has remained committed to advocating for limited government and fiscal responsibility throughout his career. His work is motivated by a deep reverence for our nation and the values that make it great." McMullin wrote his in the first person . THE PERENNIAL RUST BELT DREAM — Reviving manufacturing in Ohio is a central tenet of the race between Ryan and Vance. But even with new clean energy and semiconductor announcements sparking hopes in the state, the comeback won't likely make up for all the jobs that have been lost, WaPo's David Lynch reports from Perrysburg.
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE REALITY CHECK — "A Republican wave in the House is still quite possible," by CNN's Harry Enten: "[W]e're underselling the potential of a big Republican night." CASH DASH — Advantage GOP in the money race for the three fiercely contested seats in South Texas, The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reports . CASSY GARCIA, Rep. MAYRA FLORES and MONICA DE LA CRUZ collectively pulled in $4.3 million in the third quarter, compared to $2.4 million for Vallejo and Reps. HENRY CUELLAR and VICENTE GONZALEZ. Flores more than tripled Gonzalez's haul, though Cuellar and Gonzalez both have the advantage in cash on hand. WHAT KEVIN McCARTHY IS WATCHING — Skyrocketing prices are putting Democrats on the defensive in several California House seats, especially in Orange County, the L.A. Times' Hannah Fry reports . Well-off moderates in the newly purple region could be the key swing bloc, and their views about the economy are expected to be pivotal. — Republicans are also bullish on other blue-state districts where they want to claw back territory, including in Connecticut, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island, Axios' Josh Kraushaar reports . Crime is a major motivator in these districts, while Republicans tell him that a lack of top-tier competitive Senate races and the settled fact of abortion access in these Democratic-led states dampens liberal enthusiasm. UP FOR DEBATE — "Greene, Flowers spar over who best reflects 14th District voters," by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Tia Mitchell BATTLE FOR THE STATES ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — The Michigan abortion referendum is the highest-stakes test for the issue in November, attracting big money and likely setting the tempo for other states in the years to come, Alice Miranda Ollstein reports from Lansing . If it passes, as polls predict, "the state would become the first to overturn an anti-abortion law since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade … [and] it would likely fuel efforts to put the issue on ballots in several more states in 2023 and 2024." But a failure would validate Republican campaign tactics and make Kansas look like an aberration.
| | BIDEN'S MONDAY — The president will leave New Castle, Del., at 11:25 a.m., arriving back at the White House at 12:20 p.m.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:30 p.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY (all times Eastern):
— 6 p.m.: The VP will have a reproductive rights conversation with Rep. KAREN BASS (D-Calif.) and CELINDA VÁZQUEZ at the Nate Holden Performing Arts Center in Los Angeles.
— 9:10 p.m.: Harris will speak at a DNC finance event at a private residence, with second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF attending.
BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD:
— Tuesday: The president will speak at a political event at the Howard Theatre.
— Wednesday: Biden will speak about the bipartisan infrastructure law.
— Thursday: Biden will speak about infrastructure in Pittsburgh and take part in a reception for JOHN FETTERMAN in Philadelphia.
— Friday: Biden will head to Rehoboth for the weekend. | | | | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto greets an attendee during an event on Sunday, Oct.16, in Las Vegas. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH MORE FROM 'UNCHECKED' — Rachael and Karoun Demirjian's book ( $28 ) comes out Tuesday, and today they're on Matt Robison's "Beyond Politics" podcast from WKXL, with new nuggets about Congress impeaching Trump. "There are two major preconceived notions about impeachment," Rachael tells him. "The first one is that the outcome was inevitable; that Republicans were never going to turn on Trump, and he was always going to be acquitted twice. The second one is that Democrats did everything they could to try to run a fair investigation, and that Trump was protected by GOP lackeys who were just out there to defend him. Our reporting shows that both of those are wrong." — Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) worked hard — some might say dirty — against Trump's impeachment, per new "Unchecked" details reported by The Daily Beast's Matt Fuller . He and counsel STEVE CASTOR, for instance, planned to try to get GORDON SONDLAND to perjure himself to discredit his quid pro quo testimony. "The book presents a less than flattering portrait of Jordan, who would likely be the Judiciary Chairman if the GOP takes back the House. He is instead consistently shown to be far more interested in defending Trump than getting down to the truth." AS IT HAPPENED — On a new episode of Molly Jong-Fast's podcast, "Fast Politics," out today, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER recounts his experiences on Jan. 6, like coming "within 20 feet" of rioters. He also weighs in on the newly public footage that ALEXANDRA PELOSI captured inside Fort McNair: "I didn't even know she was doing a tape, a filming of this. Probably if she had asked, I would have said, 'I don't know if it's appropriate,' but there she was, and it ended up doing good." IT'S ALWAYS THE TEXTS — "Here Are All Of Marjorie Taylor Greene's January 6 Text Messages With Mark Meadows," by Hunter Walker TRUMP CARDS ICYMI — Trump drew widespread condemnation Sunday for a Truth Social post about American Jews, in which he warned they need to "get their act together" and appreciate Israel (and what he did for Israel) "before it is too late." The Anti-Defamation League's JONATHAN GREENBLATT responded: "We don't need the former president, who curries favor with extremists and antisemites, to lecture us about the US-Israel relationship." More from USA Today POLICY CORNER KNIVES OUT FOR CHRIS MAGNUS — Biden administration officials are badmouthing the Customs and Border Protection commissioner, whom they call unengaged, insufficiently focused on the influx of migrants and distracted by tangential issues, Daniel Lippman reports this morning . Critics say he is too focused on reforming Border Patrol culture, leaning on other officials to dive into immigration issues. Notable back and forth: "Magnus also made the case that his critics were either unfair or uninformed. Six of those internal critics, for example, remarked to POLITICO that they had seen Magnus fall asleep during multiple meetings. … Magnus explained to POLITICO that he experienced brief periods of tiredness as a side effect of his multiple sclerosis, the neurological condition he was diagnosed with 15 years ago; and that he adjusted medication levels to deal with those side effects." IMMIGRATION FILES — AP's Zeke Miller examines Biden's move last week to use Title 42 — the very Trump administration policy he's trying to end in court — to kick Venezuelan migrants out of the U.S. Using a pandemic emergency authority, the Biden administration is now seeking to block Venezuelans from seeking asylum at the border, despite loud Democratic cries for years about the cruelty of the policy under Trump. Immigrant advocates are blasting Biden for the change. ONE TO WATCH — "Congress eyes cutting off foreign markets from U.S. strategic reserve oil," Washington Examiner
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD FROM 30,000 FEET — The outburst of Republican election denialism in the U.S. echoes trends in other democracies veering toward authoritarianism around the world, in which candidates sound like Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, WaPo's Marc Fisher reports in a big swing on the global move away from democratic values. "What the authoritarian regimes have in common is their roots in … the three P's: populism, polarization and post-truth." DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — New U.S. restrictions that aim to cripple China's semiconductor industry are leaving the future uncertain of at least 43 Americans who work in senior roles in the Chinese industry, WSJ's Liza Lin and Karen Hao report from Singapore. "For many senior executives at Chinese companies, the rule will likely force them to decide between their jobs and their U.S. citizenship or permanent resident status," according to one expert. BEYOND THE BELTWAY STRANGE BEDFELLOWS — There's been plenty of coverage about Christian conservatives' growing censorship of controversial books in schools around the country. But in Democratic Dearborn, Mich., conservative Muslims are joining the effort to remove literature with LGBTQ themes, The Guardian's Tom Perkins reports . Statewide Republican candidates like KRISTINA KARAMO and MATT DePERNO have jumped into the fray. "[T]he alliance highlights how some deeply socially conservative Arab Americans are willing to put that aside and join in the culture wars. Several parents who spoke with the Guardian insisted the effort had nothing to do with politics." MEDIAWATCH SUCCESSION — If RUPERT MURDOCH goes ahead with potential plans to unite News Corp. and Fox Corp. once again, LACHLAN MURDOCH would stand to benefit from consolidated power, Bloomberg's Christopher Palmeri reports . The Murdochs would save money and "more easily promote new businesses, such as sports betting, across multiple media outlets," though some analysts are skeptical about its benefits. Other shareholders outside the family will have to sign off on the merger.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Ken Burns is fundraising for Mark Kelly and Kirsten Gillibrand. Jill Biden met Joel Embiid and led the "Fly Eagles Fly" fight song to raise cancer awareness as her Philadelphia Eagles played. Tom Emmer went for a Kiawah Island bike ride with Wayne King and his son. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Raquel Krähenbühl's birthday party at Artemis: Swiss Ambassador Jacques Pitteloud and Angelique Pitteloud, Belgian Ambassador Jean-Arthur Régibeau, Kevin Munoz, Saloni Sharma, Eduardo Silva, Samantha Reposa, Matt Kaminski, Michael Crowley, Tim Noviello, Christina Sevilla and Steve Rochlin, Sara Cook, Kethevane Gorjestani, Nadia Bilbassy and Rafael Mathus Ruiz. — SPOTTED at a launch party for "Wear a Killer Outfit," Robin Stombler's book on public speaking ( $18.95 ), at Osteria da Nino on Sunday: Andy Wright, Erin Galper, Mickey Trimarchi, Patricia Howard, Lisa Derx, Randy Querry, Edward Holland, Margaret Reagan, Susan Prokop, Emily and Doug Jacobson, and Terri Gaffney. MEDIA MOVE — Rishi Iyengar is now a staff reporter at Foreign Policy magazine. He most recently was a tech writer in CNN's San Francisco bureau. TRANSITIONS — Rich Davidson is now director for strategic communication at the Atlantic Council. He previously was comms director for Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). … Joe Kalmin is now senior director of government affairs at Food Allergy Research & Education. He previously was a legislative assistant at the Livingston Group. … Sarah Treuhaft is now senior director of policy and partnerships at the New School Institute on Race, Power, and Political Economy. She previously was VP of research at PolicyLink. WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Alec Sears, social media and digital strategist for the RNC, and Casey Dickinson, a senior audit associate at Johnson Lambert, got married Saturday at Mt. Defiance Cidery in Virginia. They met in 2018 via mutual friends in D.C. Pic … Another pic — Meredith Yinger, manager of regulatory affairs for the American Academy of Family Physicians, and William Dede, associate director of health policy for the Special Needs Plan Alliance, got married Saturday at the Potomac View Terrace in the American Pharmacist Association headquarters. They met through an internship at the Social Security Advisory Board. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) … Reps. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) and Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) … Bloomberg's Peter Grauer and Angela Greiling Keane … CBS' Bo Erickson … POLITICO's Myah Ward, Jordan Wolman and Amanda Britton … Kelly Misselwitz of Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) office … Diana Hamilton of Senate Appropriations … TikTok's Michael Beckerman … NASA's Alicia Brown … Rich Thomas of Monument Advocacy … Kaiser Health News' Julie Rovner … Martin Matishak … Ken Baer of Crosscut Strategies … John Monsif … former Reps. Gene Green (D-Texas) and Virgil Goode (R-Va.) … Bill Steiger ... Matthew Hennessy of Tremont Public Advisors … Morgan O'Brien … former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory … Fred Yang … Ethics & Public Policy Center's Josh Good … Ellis Kim … NBC's Caroline Klein (25) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Correction: Sunday's Playbook misstated the age of former Sen. Dan Evans (R-Wash.). He turned 97.
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