Friday, October 7, 2022

Biden warns of nuclear ‘Armageddon’

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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PhRMA

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

President Joe Biden speaks.

Last night at a fundraiser in New York City, President Joe Biden issued a stark warning about the risks of nuclear war in Ukraine. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

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DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING — The 2022 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to "human rights advocate ALES BIALIATSKI from Belarus, the Russian human rights organization Memorial and the Ukrainian human rights organization Center for Civil Liberties ," three entities the Committee said were "outstanding champions of human rights, democracy and peaceful co-existence" in neighboring Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Official announcement

SIREN — Last night at a fundraiser in New York City, President JOE BIDEN issued a stark warning about the risks of nuclear war in Ukraine.

"First time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat of the use [of a] nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going," Biden told donors at the home of investor JAMES MURDOCH. "I'm trying to figure out what is [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN's off ramp? … Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?"

Biden made a detour into domestic politics, but then returned to the subject that was clearly weighing on him.

"We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since KENNEDY and the Cuban Missile Crisis," Biden said. "[Putin is] not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming."

"I don't think there's any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon."

Some context from NYT's Katie Rogers and David Sanger: "Mr. Biden's references to Armageddon were highly unusual for any American president. Since the Cuban Missile Crisis, 60 years ago this month, occupants of the Oval Office have rarely spoken in such grim tones about the possible use of nuclear weapons, much less talked openly about 'off ramps.'"

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — JONATHAN MARTIN will depart The New York Times later this month after a nearly decadelong run, most recently as senior political correspondent. Also a POLITICO alumnus, Martin is co-author of "This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future."

JMart tells Playbook: "I've had an incredibly rewarding 10 years at the Times, and am grateful to my colleagues and editors for making all the datelines and bylines such fun. Now, I'm excited for a new adventure reporting on politics. Stay tuned, sources (and future sources)."

SCHUMER HITS SAUDIS — "What Saudi Arabia did to help Putin continue to wage his despicable, vicious war against Ukraine will long be remembered by Americans. We are looking at all the legislative tools to best deal with this appalling and deeply cynical action, including the NOPEC bill." — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, in a statement released Thursday evening.

NOT SO FAST — WSJ: "Twitter, Elon Musk Trial Postponed as Deal Talks Stall"

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: SARAH MATTHEWS — You probably remember Sarah Matthews from her riveting primetime appearance before the Jan. 6 committee in July. She testified about her experience in the White House during the attack on the Capitol, and how DONALD TRUMP's actions that day, especially his refusal to condemn violence, so disgusted her that she resigned as his deputy press secretary that night.

The Jan. 6 select committee is back next Thursday for its first hearing since the one at which Matthews appeared.

We thought it was a good moment to spend a few hours with Matthews and hear the full story of what it was like for a young Republican to publicly break with the president, upend her career and experience the full wrath of Trump and his supporters by cooperating with the January 6 committee.

Here's a taste of what she had to say…

PBDD Quote Card 10/7

While describing the infighting at the White House on January 6 over trying to convince Trump to condemn the violence, Matthews recounts the story of an argument with an unnamed colleague who sided with the president:

"This person made the case that we shouldn't condemn the violence because that then kind of admits that these are his supporters who are being violent. … I got visibly upset in front of this room full of colleagues of mine. The one colleague said, 'Well, you know, if he condemns the violence, we're handing the media a win.'"

Come for much more like that , including the time Matthews wandered into an Oval Office strategy meeting about how to message the overturning of the election. Stay for her dishing on the real story of the dashing young man who sat behind her during her testimony and became known online as "Clark Kent."

Listen to Ryan's full conversation with Sarah Matthews on this week's Playbook Deep Dive podcast . Subscribe here on Apple Podcasts and Spotify

MUST READ: MICHAEL SCHAFFER ON MICHAEL FANONE'S NEW BOOK There are tapes: "The average score-settling memoir is apt to devolve into a he-said/she-said news cycle. Some of the conversations depicted in Fanone's Hold the Line have a key difference: The author made surreptitious recordings of his interactions with the likes of House GOP Leader KEVIN McCARTHY, national Fraternal Order of Police President PATRICK YOES, and leaders of Fanone's own local, among others. Other conversations, with people such as South Carolina Senator LINDSEY GRAHAM, weren't recorded but are recounted in cringey detail."

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and tell us what you think J-Mart is up to next: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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Photo collage of (from left to right) congresswoman Jamie Herrera Beutler; House of Representatives minority leader Kevin McCarthy; congressman Jamie Raskin; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi; congressman Greg Pence, and former President Donald Trump — paired with pen scribble marks, telephone lines and various photos from Jan. 6 riots and hearing in background.

Illustration by Klawe Rzeczy / Getty Images / iStock

JUST POSTED — A new excerpt of Rachael and Karoun Demirjian's book "Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress's Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump" ($28 ) is up at POLITICO Magazine. It's a massive tick-tock of the final, frenzied 24 hours of Trump's second impeachment trial, when lead manager JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) and his team frantically tried to secure GOP witnesses to testify. The move, you'll recall, followed a bombshell CNN story on KEVIN McCARTHY's now-infamous Jan. 6 call with Trump, citing Rep. JAIME HERRERA BEUTLER's (R-Wash.) secondhand account.

A few revelations from the piece…  

1) Why Democrats caved: The excerpt shows how pressure by Democrats on Raskin's team led the managers to backtrack after the Senate voted to call witnesses. During the first impeachment trial, the entire Democratic apparatus argued that Republicans should subpoena witnesses. But when Democrats had the power themselves, they buckled out of fear that a long trial could upend their agenda — using, ironically, the same argument that MITCH McCONNELL used to shut down witnesses in the first impeachment.

2) The limit of MIKE PENCE's bravery: The former VP has been hailed for refusing to overturn the election on Jan. 6. But it turns out that Pence and his team refused to allow aides to testify when their stories might have had an impact on convicting Trump. Bade and Demirjian also report that some of the 10 House GOP impeachers had heard McCarthy describe his Jan. 6 call with Trump but played dumb when Raskin's team pled for their testimony.

3) JHB's big moment: Herrera Beutler, the excerpt shows, reached out to House counsel DOUG LETTER for advice about testifying that day, a move that could have changed the outcome of the trial. Letter, however, never informed Raskin of her interest.

a logo that reads 2022 ELECTIONS

It's the most common topic in ads for Democratic congressional candidates and their allies this cycle: abortion rights — and, more specifically, the GOP's designs on a nationwide abortion ban.

Inasmuch as there is a unifying Democratic message this cycle, this is it. In districts as disparate as suburban Omaha and heavily Catholic rural Texas, Dems and their allies have spent more than $25 million in broadcast TV ads depicting Republicans as "extremists who would imprison doctors and force women who have been raped to carry pregnancies to term," our Ally Mutnick reports this morning.

And that presents a conundrum for Republicans: "how to respond — if at all — to the Democratic ad onslaught on abortion policy, when every minute they spend discussing about abortion rights is one not used discussing about inflation and economic woes."

If they don't respond: "Disregarding the hits lets Republicans focus on the other issues they want to be front and center in the election — but allows Democrats to make claims with no pushback."

— If they do respond: They risk giving in "to a broader narrative set by Democrats."

Another complicating factor? "Republicans have a wide variety of positions on abortion rights. That makes it harder for party strategists to offer universal advice on how to respond," Ally told Playbook on Thursday night. "It wasn't initially obvious that Democrats would invest as much as they have on abortion-centered attacks. The Supreme Court's decision was seismic but this strategy didn't materialize until after months of polling and focus groups."

BIG PICTURE

JUST POSTED — N.Y. Mag's Gabe Debenedetti looks at how Biden is approaching November with an eye on how the midterms will shape 2024 plotting.

"Biden has also been talking more in private about a set of high-priority races that are shaping the politics of swing states that will be central to his reelection. In recent money-raising events and casual conversations, he often decries Senator RICK SCOTT's [R-Fla.] proposal to chop Social Security, makes light of Republican Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY's attempts to define his party's agenda, and zeros in on Senator LINDSEY GRAHAM's 15-week abortion-ban proposal.

"But he has been particularly open about one pol he especially wants to get rid of, whose ouster would hand Democrats both Senate seats in his vital battleground: Wisconsin Senator RON JOHNSON, whom he describes as notably draconian and an emblem of the new, warped GOP."

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE

KELLY SLAMS DEMS ON IMMIGRATION — Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY had harsh words for his own party's immigration policies in a debate with his Republican challenger BLAKE MASTERS on Thursday. "I've spent a lot of time on our southern border, and let me just say it's a mess. It's a chaos. It's crisis after crisis," Kelly said, per NBC's Allan Smith and Sahil Kapur in Phoenix . "The debate, which is the candidates' first and only match up, featured multiple heated exchanges between the two major party nominees and a third-party candidate, Libertarian MARC VICTOR," Smith and Kapur write.

More from the debate: "During an extended exchange on abortion policy — one of the top issues both in Arizona and nationally after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade , Kelly insisted Masters was trying to cover up his true position on abortion." 45-second clip 

Related read: "GOP renews backing for Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters," by Natalie Allison: "The National Republican Senatorial Committee announced Thursday that it is adding a 'seven-figure' investment in Arizona just weeks after the top GOP super PAC cut its advertising dollars in the state to spend elsewhere."

TRUMP MAKES MOVES — "Donald Trump PAC Jumps Into Ohio, Pennsylvania Senate Races," by WSJ's Alex Leary

WALKER LATEST — "GOP crisis in Herschel Walker race was nearly two years in the making," by WaPo's Isaac Arnsdorf, Ashley Parker, Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey: "For now, Republicans are publicly rallying around [ HERSCHEL] WALKER as his campaign said online donations have skyrocketed. … More quietly, though, Republican strategists are taking a couple weeks to measure and evaluate the fallout. The impact could take several weeks to register in opinion surveys. Walker was already trailing incumbent Sen. RAPHAEL G. WARNOCK (D) in most public polls."

GRANITE STATE UPDATE — "Republicans rally around Bolduc in NH. But is the pivot enough to win?" by WaPo's Liz Goodwin and Isaac Arnsdorf

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

RED FLAG — "Democrats sound alarms about funding in battle for House majority," by WaPo's Michael Scherer: "Top Democratic strategists have concluded that they lack the funds needed to fully contest all of their potentially winnable House races this cycle, people familiar with the situation said, forcing tough decisions about where to spend on television ads as Republican outside groups flood the airwaves."

GEORGIA ON MY MIND — "In Thomasville, two congressional candidates take different tacks on inflation," by GPB's Stephen Fowler: "While Georgia's governor and Senate race have been dominating headlines and bringing in millions of dollars in fundraising, both Democrats and Republicans are paying attention to this Southwest Georgia race, the only one out 14 U.S. House districts that is remotely competitive."

IN THE GREAT LAKE STATE — "7th District Showdown: Slotkin and Barrett debate at WLNS studio," by WLNS' Andrew Birkle

CASH DASH — Rob Pyers (@rpyers): "Some late night action from the Democratic House Majority PAC as they go up with $7.6M in IEs in 31 races, with three Nevada House races topping the list." See the full list

HOT POLLS

Rhode Island: Republican ALLAN FUNG leads Democrat SETH MAGAZINER, 46% to 40%, in the 2nd Congressional District, per a 12 News/Roger Williams University poll.

HOT ADS

Via Steve Shepard

— Texas: Democrat BETO O'ROURKE's latest ad features family members of the children who were slain in the Uvalde school shooting in May. "[N]o child is safe in their school while GREG ABBOTT is governor," one man says.

— Ohio: Democratic Rep. MARCY KAPTUR hits GOP opponent J.R. MAJEWSKI for misrepresenting his military record in her latest ad, which closes with the words "MAJEWSKI DISRESPECTS MILITARY FAMILIES" plastered across the screen.

 

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BIDEN'S FRIDAY:

11:05 a.m.: The president will depart the White House en route to Hagerstown, Md.

12:35 p.m.: Biden will tour Volvo Group Powertrain Operations, where he will deliver remarks on the economy at 1:35 p.m.

2:40 p.m.: Biden will depart Hagerstown en route to Wilmington, Del., where he is scheduled to arrive at 4:10 p.m.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Hagerstown.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' FRIDAY:

2:15 p.m.: The vice president will ceremonially swear in SHEFALI RAZDAN DUGGAL to be U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands.

 

JOIN NEXT WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA:  President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Relatives mourn during a ceremony for those killed in the attack on the Young Children's Development Center in the rural town of Uthai Sawan, north eastern Thailand, Friday, Oct. 7, 2022. A former policeman facing a drug charge burst into a day care center in northeastern Thailand on Thursday, killing dozens of preschoolers and teachers before shooting more people as he fled in the deadliest rampage in the nation's history.

Relatives mourn during a ceremony for those killed in the attack on the Young Children's Development Center in the rural town of Uthai Sawan, north eastern Thailand, Friday, Oct. 7, 2022. | Sakchai Lalit/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

THE WHITE HOUSE

BIDEN PARDONS POT POSSESSORS — NYT : "The pardons will clear everyone convicted on federal charges of simple possession since it became a crime in the 1970s." … WaPo: "The move by the president continues the push to roll back some of the most far-reaching impacts of the war on drugs that began about a half-century ago, just as Biden was entering the U.S. Senate." … WSJ: "The actions could open up the Biden administration to accusations of being soft on crime, at a time when rising crime rates in some cities and areas have become a campaign issue." … POLITICO: "Democratic Pennsylvania Senate candidate JOHN FETTERMAN got advance notice from the White House that Biden was going to pardon marijuana offenses and review how it's scheduled, a person familiar with the conversation said. The Pennsylvania lieutenant governor, long a proponent of legalizing weed, talked with Biden for 20 minutes last month in Pittsburgh, during which Fetterman urged him to deschedule marijuana." … STEPHEN COLBERT: "Ladies and gentlemen, that is a hell of a Green New Deal."

HUNTING HUNTER — WaPo's Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein report that federal agents who have been investigating HUNTER BIDEN "have gathered what they believe is sufficient evidence to charge him with tax crimes and a false statement related to a gun purchase." Now, it will be up to the U.S. Attorney in Delaware, who is a Trump appointee, to decide whether to file charges.

WSJ's Aruna Viswanatha, James Areddy and Sadie Gurman followed up with additional reporting: "Prosecutors from the U.S. attorney's office in Delaware, which has been leading the investigation, are struggling with whether certain facts, such as his well-documented drug addiction, would present a defense against a potential criminal tax case, the people said. Mr. Biden's defense team met with Justice Department prosecutors in recent weeks, trying to counter the government's potential case, some of the people said."

POTUS'S SAUDI DILEMMA — "Biden's Choice After OPEC Cuts: Woo Saudi Arabia, or Retaliate?" by NYT's Peter Baker

CONGRESS

SASSE OUT — Nebraska GOP Sen. BEN SASSE is set to become the next president of the University of Florida and resign his Senate seat in the near future, Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report. "Nebraska Gov. PETE RICKETTS would then appoint a replacement for Sasse under state law, with the seat then up for a special election in 2024. One of the people familiar with Sasse's plans said Ricketts himself is viewed as a potential appointee for the seat." Read the University of Florida news release

The Omaha World-Herald's Henry Cordes: "Biggest question in Nebraska politics: Does Pete Ricketts want to be a U.S. senator?"

WHAT THE GOP WANTS — "House GOP confronts its 2023 rift: Impeachments," by Jordain Carney

THE POST-PELOSI PREVIEW — Vanity Fair's Abigail Tracy is the latest to look at the possibility of a post-Pelosi future: "Is The End Of The Nancy Pelosi Era Near? The Jockeying To Succeed Her Is In Full Force"

Related read: "Time for Pelosi to go? San Francisco voters say yes — and no," by the L.A. Times' Mark Barabak: "Asked whether there was a feeling among San Francisco political insiders this will be Pelosi's last campaign, one of them responded — after a promise of anonymity — with an ambivalent email: 'Absolutely. Unless it's not. But absolutely. Unless it's not.'"

MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT

DOC DILEMMA — One of DOJ's top officials recently reached out to Trump's lawyers to tell them the department "believed [Trump] had not returned all the documents he took when he left the White House," NYT's Michael Schmidt, Maggie Haberman and Katie Benner report. "The outreach from the official, JAY I. BRATT , who leads the department's counterintelligence operations, is the most concrete indication yet that investigators remain skeptical that Mr. Trump has been fully cooperative in their efforts to recover documents the former president was supposed to have turned over to the National Archives at the end of his term."

WAR IN UKRAINE

INSIDE CRITIC — "Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds," by WaPo's Greg Miller, Shane Harris, Paul Sonne and Catherine Belton: "The disagreement by a member of Putin's inner circle was deemed significant enough that it was included in President Biden's daily intelligence briefing."

THE VIEW IN MOSCOW — "Morale is plummeting in Putin's private army as Russia's war in Ukraine falters," by CNN's Saskya Vandoorne, Melissa Bell, Joseph Ataman and Renee Bertini

LOOKING AHEAD — "Russia Lashes Out in Ukraine, Raising Question of What's Next," by NYT's Richard Pérez-Peña, Carly Olson and Matthew Mpoke Bigg

JUDICIARY SQUARE

HEADS UP — "Federal Judge Blocks N.Y. Gun Law, Finding Much of It Unconstitutional," by NYT's Jonah Bromwich

 

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TRUMP CARDS

WHERE TRUMP'S HEAD IS AT — Trump is hyper-focused on a number of elections — but they're not all the ones you might expect. Despite the looming midterms that are weeks away, Trump has his eyes abroad, "keeping tabs on the political future of Brazil's JAIR BOLSONARO and watching closely as KIM JONG-UN rattles the west," Meridith McGraw reports this morning. "Trump has long had an affinity for strongmen in far-off countries, going back to his days before becoming president. But his continued fascination with and support for them threatens to further complicate the Republican Party's search for a cohesive foreign policy doctrine."

WHERE ARE THEY NOW — "Top ally in Trump's 2020 election plot fights professional sanctions," by Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: "JEFFREY CLARK appeared for a lengthy proceeding Thursday that is a prelude to a disciplinary hearing on claims he violated legal ethics in his persistent efforts to undercut the legitimacy of the 2020 election. The heart of the issue: Did Clark merely offer up unwise suggestions to his superiors — hardly the basis for disciplinary action — or did his persistence in the face of a lack of evidence of fraud render his conduct so inappropriate that he should be punished?"

TV TONIGHT — PBS' "Washington Week": Claudia Grisales, Seung Min Kim, Ariane de Vogue and Jonathan Lemire.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

FOX "Fox News Sunday": Stacey Abrams … Jim Gray. Panel: Charlie Hurt, Morgan Ortagus, Susan Page and Juan Williams.

CBS "Face the Nation": Kari Lake … Katie Hobbs … Peter Baker … Susan Glasser … Anthony Salvanto.

ABC "This Week": Retired Navy Adm. Mike Mullen. Panel: Terry Moran, Mary Bruce, Jane Coaston and Yasmeen Abutaleb.

CNN "Inside Politics": Panel: Laura Barrón-López, Astead Herndon, Nia-Malika Henderson and David Chalian.

NBC "Meet the Press," with guest moderator Kristen Welker: Maggie Haberman. Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, Brendan Buck and Jen Psaki.

MSNBC "The Sunday Show": Denver Riggleman … Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) … Vermont Gov. Howard Dean … Wes Moore … Wendell Pierce … Sharon Clarke.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Timothy Shenk got his hands on a 250-page unpublished manuscript, "Transformative Politics," that Barack Obama co-wrote while at Harvard Law School.

Kanye West sat down with Tucker Carlson for an interview.

Xavier Becerra retweeted Biden's 3 p.m. marijuana policy announcement at exactly 4:20 p.m.

OUT AND ABOUT — Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross had his official portrait unveiling Thursday at the Commerce Department. He was accompanied by Hilary Geary Ross, Karen and Col. Robert Tanzola, Steven Barranca and Mike Walsh. Pic

— Stewart McLaurin, president of the White House Historical Association, hosted a lunch at Decatur House on Thursday in celebration of David Rubenstein's new book, "How to Invest." SPOTTED: Sarah Perot, Jan Bayer, Teresa Carlson, Edward Luce, Mack McLarty, Sylvia Burwell, Lee Satterfield, Maureen Hinman and Dmitri Alperovitch, Kerry Healey, Danielle Burr, Cathy Merrill, Amna Nawaz, David Spunt, Kayla Tausche, John Hahn, Nicolas Béliard and Chris Ullman.

— SPOTTED at the Center for Democracy & Technology's annual Tech Prom at The Anthem on Thursday night: FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel, FTC Commissioners Rebecca Slaughter and Alvaro Bedoya, NTIA Administrator Alan Davidson, EEOC Chair Charlotte Burrows, Jenny Yang, Alondra Nelson, Tim Wu, Alexander MacGillivray, Sharon Bradford Franklin, Justin Vail, Clarence Wardell, Josh Hsu, April McClain Delaney and Miriam Vogel.

MEDIA MOVES — Ashley Etienne will be a political contributor for CBS News. She most recently was CEO of Etienne & Saint, and is a Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi alum. … Mark Penn is joining Fox News as a network contributor. He is president and managing partner at The Stagwell Group and is a Bill and Hillary Clinton alum.

TRANSITIONS — Jimmy Draper is now a legislative correspondent for Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.). He most recently was a legislative correspondent for the Senate Judiciary Committee. … HIT Strategies has added Maya Kapur, Drew Williams, Oyinda Bola and Alani Sweezy as analysts and Chase Gladden and Noelle Laub as research field assistants.

WEDDING — Courtney Cochran, director of strategic planning for Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), and Ahmad Harris, sales representative with Cintas, got married in Granada, Spain, on Sunday. The two met at a Christmas party in 2017. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) … Tom Perez White House's Kate Berner and David Hayes ... NYT's Charlie Savage … retired Lt. Col. Oliver NorthKatrina vanden HeuvelChris Krueger of Cowen … AARP's Bill SweeneyStephen Jackson of the Ripon Society … POLITICO's Orlando Navarro … Protocol's Kwasi Gyamfi Asiedu … Roll Call's Tom Williams … DOJ's Michael RosengartAmanda Fleming of Public Citizen … USTelecom's Allison Remsen Arie LipnickMark Orlowski Jen Hengstenberg … Herald Group's Robert Brooks … CNN's Elizabeth Hartfield … GWU's Sean Aday Suz Redfearn

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