🚀 Axios AM: Political "super-weapon"

Plus: A film first | Friday, October 07, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By JPMorgan Chase   Axios AM By Mike Allen · Oct 07, 2022 Happy Friday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,173 words ... 4½ minutes. Edited by Noah Bressner.     1 big thing: Political "super-weapon" Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios   Innovations in artificial intelligence are making it faster and cheaper for political campaigns to find, turn out and extract money from voters. Consultants in both parties are hoovering up voter data to hone advanced fundraising and persuasion tactics. The tools are especially useful in down-ballot local races, Axios' Lachlan Markay reports. Why it matters: Consultants say they can dramatically improve campaigning by asking machines to synthesize huge amounts of data — from incomes to consumer purchasing habits — to predict how you will donate and vote. A host of consultancies are marketing their use of AI and machine learning: Sterling Strategies, a Democratic firm, says it can more than double digital fundraising performance. "This is a super-weapon that Democrats have," boasted Martin Kurucz, Sterling's managing partner, who says his firm has worked with about 1,000 Democratic campaigns and committees. Numinar, a Republican startup, touts voter modeling and predictive capabilities. Numinar says it has worked with nearly 300 political clients this cycle. FEC records show payments from some key Senate and House campaigns this year. Veteran Democratic fundraiser Anne Lewis' firm, MissionWired, recently unveiled a fundraising product called AdvantageAI. 🧠 How it works: Each company in the space uses massive amounts of political and consumer data to feed an ever-improving algorithm that can predict voter or donor behavior. Sterling marketing materials say: "No data analyst in the world could look at over 500 variables, from household income to magazine subscriptions ... in less than a minute." AI-based software also makes it much easier for firms to identify new donors — people who are calculated to have the highest propensity to give to a campaign. 🥊 Reality check: Some political pros are skeptical, describing AI as more marketing gimmick than true advance in political data technology. Asked about the trend, one veteran Republican consultant facetiously texted a GIF labeling it "magic." He described AI in the political world as "a catch-all BS word." The bottom line: Whether you call it AI, machine learning or old-fashioned data-crunching, the technology underlying campaigns is improving fast. Share this story.     2. ☢️ Biden warns of "Armageddon" Reporters reflect in President Biden's sunglasses yesterday as he takes questions before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn. Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images President Biden warned at a fundraiser in New York last evening that the Russian invasion of Ukraine invites the highest nuclear "prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis" in 1962. Putin is "not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, or biological or chemical weapons — because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming," Biden said at a DSCC fundraiser, at the Manhattan home of James and Kathryn Murdoch. Biden called Putin "a guy I know fairly well." "First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use [of a] nuclear weapon if, in fact, things continue down the path they are going," Biden said (via a White House pool report). "I don't think there's any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon." Share this story.     3. 🔎 Kremlin leak to U.S. intelligence A painting by Russian artist Alexey Sergienko, "Putin with a Puppy," was presented in St. Petersburg ahead of Putin's 70th birthday today. Photo: Dmitri Lovetsky/AP Russian President Vladimir Putin — who turns 70 today — has faced direct criticism from a member of his inner circle over his handling of the war in Ukraine, The Washington Post reports from information obtained by U.S. intelligence. Why it matters: The disagreement, delivered in recent weeks, "marks the clearest indication yet of turmoil within Russia's leadership over the stewardship of a war that has gone disastrously wrong for Moscow." Officials told the WashPost that the information was considered significant enough to include in President Biden's daily intelligence briefing.     A message from JPMorgan Chase New solar farm powers JPMorgan Chase operations     JPMorgan Chase has turned the parking lot at its McCoy Center in Columbus into a giant solar farm, with plans to extend the project to other offices. Even better: The firm reached carbon neutrality in its offices globally in 2020. Learn more.     4. 🚌 Mass transit chugs back Data: American Public Transportation Association; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals Bus ridership is up, but trains are still half-empty as public transit systems across the U.S. try to recover from COVID, Axios transportation correspondent Joann Muller writes. Why it matters: The unevenness reflects the socioeconomic inequities of public transportation and the vagaries of hybrid work. 💡 What's happening: Many essential workers and lower-income people — groups that tend to be less able to work remotely — rely on the bus for basic transportation. That helps explain why bus ridership has bounced back faster. Office workers, many of whom used to commute by rail from the suburbs, now have more flexibility to work from home at least some of the time. 🚇 Rail transit, including subways and commuter trains, plummeted to 10% of pre-pandemic levels in April 2020. Now it stands at 60%. Share this story.     5. 💬 Quote du jour J.T. O'Donnell, a career coach, says she hears rising worries from applicants about the once-booming job market (via N.Y. Times): "I watch the train wreck in slow motion. All these people thought: 'Oh, when I'm ready to go back to work it'll be no problem.' And now it's a problem."     6. 😷 Europe faces COVID wave Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios   A new COVID wave appears to be brewing in Europe as cooler weather arrives: Public health experts are warning that vaccine fatigue — and confusion over types of available vaccines — will likely limit booster uptake, Reuters reports. British officials warn that renewed circulation of flu + a resurgence in COVID could over-stretch the National Health Service. Why it matters: New Omicron subvariants are gaining ground. Hundreds are being tracked by scientists, WHO officials said this week. 🦠 What's happening: EU cases reached 1.5 million last week, up 8% from the prior week, despite a dramatic fall in testing. Globally, case numbers continue to decline. Hospitalization numbers across many countries in the 27-nation bloc, as well as Britain, have gone up. Sound familiar? Perhaps the biggest challenge to booster uptake is the perception that the pandemic is over, creating a false sense of security.     7. 🕊️ Nobel Peace Prize to activists from Belarus, Russia, Ukraine Ales Bialiatski in a cage during a court session in Minsk, Belarus, in 2011. Photo: Sergei Grits/AP The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded this morning to Ales Bialiatski, a detained activist in Belarus, Russian human rights organization Memorial and Ukrainian human rights organization Center for Civil Liberties. The big picture: A Ukrainian counteroffensive has pushed back Russian forces in some areas annexed by the Kremlin, a move widely denounced by western countries as illegal. The committee said it wanted to honor "three outstanding champions of human rights, democracy and peaceful co-existence" in the neighboring countries of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. The panel's chair used the announcement to urge Belarus to release Bialiatski.     8. 🎞️ 1 film thing: Netflix on the silver screen From left: Edward Norton, Madelyn Cline, Kathryn Hahn, Dave Bautista, Leslie Odom Jr., Jessica Henwick, Kate Hudson, Janelle Monáe and Daniel Craig in "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery." Photo: Netflix via AP For the first time, major U.S. theater chains will play a Netflix release, after exhibitors and the streaming service reached a deal for a nationwide sneak-peak run of Rian Johnson's "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery." Netflix announced that AMC, Regal Cinemas and Cinemark will carry the "Knives Out" sequel for a one-week run beginning Nov. 23 — a month before it begins streaming on Dec. 23, AP's Jake Coyle writes. Why it matters: Until now, the chains have largely refused to program Netflix releases. What's happening: The deal stops short of a full theatrical release for "Glass Onion," which stars Daniel Craig as detective Benoit Blanc. A wide release typically plays in more than 3,000 theaters in North America. Johnson's film will play in about 600 domestic theaters. Watch the trailer.     A message from JPMorgan Chase Coming soon: The largest all-electric building in New York City     JPMorgan Chase's new global headquarters is expected to be New York City's largest all-electric tower. Even better: The 60-story skyscraper aims to exceed the highest standards in sustainability, with net-zero operational emissions and exceptional indoor air quality. Read more.   📬 Invite your friends to sign up to get their daily essentials — Axios AM, PM and Finish Line. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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