⚾️ Axios Sports: Judge could have hit 81

Plus: NIL megastars | Friday, October 07, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Upside   Axios Sports By Kendall Baker · Oct 07, 2022 🎉 Happy Friday! You made it. Today's word count: 1,647 words (6 minutes). Let's sports...     1 big thing: ⚾️ Judge could have hit 81 Photo illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios. Photo: Texas Rangers/Getty Images   The six highest single-season HR marks in MLB history came from players believed to be juicing. The seventh — Aaron Judge's 62 — came in spite of the ball itself being de-juiced, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes. Why it matters: If the balls used this season behaved like the oft-juiced balls used over the previous six, Judge would have hit 81 dingers, per BallparkPal.com. That would have eclipsed Barry Bonds' record by eight. Between the lines: Ballpark Pal assigned a HR probability to every fly ball hit this year based on exit velocity, launch angle, direction, stadium and weather. It then determined whether those would have been homers if the ball were still juiced. Example A: Judge hit a 111.8-mph double to left-center last month against the Brewers with a 19-degree launch angle. In 2018, Ryan Braun hit a nearly identical shot — same ballpark, same launch angle, same location, slightly lower exit velocity — that cleared the fence. Example B: Judge hit a 100-mph opposite-field line drive in May with a 27-degree launch angle that was an easy out for the right fielder. In 2017, Whit Merrifield hit a 100-mph liner with a 27-degree launch angle that went four rows deep — over Judge's head, no less. By the numbers: All told, Judge hit 23% fewer HR (62) than he would have if the ball looked more like it did from 2016 to 2021 (80.6), per Ballpark Pal. The league as a whole hit 25% fewer. The backdrop: It's become common knowledge that MLB baseballs aren't the same every year. While steroids helped inflate HR totals at the turn of the century, the ball's composition was the culprit when they began booming again in 2016. In 2019, the league-wide HR record was broken by such an astonishing degree that the league "de-juiced" its balls entering 2021, though it later came out that both old (juiced) and new (de-juiced) balls were used last year. This year, only the new balls were used, and the result was the fewest long balls since 2015. That makes Judge's feat even more impressive: Only three other players eclipsed 40. The bottom line: Some argue that Judge is the HR king because he's hit the most among "clean" players. If MLB hadn't deadened the ball this season, perhaps no caveat would even be necessary.     2. 🎓 Chart du jour: NIL megastars Note: Followers include Instagram, TikTok and Twitter; Data: On3; Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios As NIL continues to evolve, the highest-earning athletes represent the myriad ways in which value can be measured and monetized, Jeff writes. State of play: The top 10 athletes by NIL valuation, per On3's database, can be broken into five archetypes that mix and match the three criteria that go into On3's calculation: on-field performance, social media influence and overall exposure. Famous family: Nos. 1 and 2 — the only two high schoolers on the list — are Bronny James (LeBron's son) and Arch Manning (Peyton and Eli's nephew). James, who turned 18 on Thursday, has a much larger social following, but both receive consistent national attention and media coverage. Olympian: Auburn's Sunisa Lee became an overnight sensation after winning all-around gold in Tokyo. In the past, gymnasts of her ilk turned pro, but NIL made attending college a far easier choice. She's racked up numerous deals with companies like Amazon and Target. Influencer: LSU gymnast Olivia Dunne is more of a typical social media influencer who also happens to be a college athlete. She's amassed more than 8 million TikTok and Instagram followers and has deals with clothing companies like Vuori and American Eagle. Studs: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson Jr. and Bijan Robinson were all in this year's preseason Heisman top five, with the former three all finishing in the top five last year. Excelling at the most popular and lucrative sport is a good way to make money. Major market: Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison transferred to USC this year from Oklahoma and Pittsburgh, respectively, which has helped them maximize their earning potential in the L.A. market.     3. ⚽️ Epic clash at Wembley Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   England, fresh off winning the Women's Euro title, will host the USWNT in a highly-anticipated friendly tonight at Wembley Stadium (3pm ET, Fox). By the numbers: The sellout crowd will be the second-largest to ever watch the USWNT, trailing only the 1999 Women's World Cup final at the Rose Bowl. What to watch: The Lionesses and USWNT are rivals, no doubt, but tonight's match will also include a show of unity and common cause. Both teams will take the field wearing teal armbands to stand in solidarity with sexual abuse victims. This comes after an investigation found that abuse and misconduct had become "systemic" in the NWSL, which employs players from both national teams. The backdrop: Europe — motivated by the USWNT's success and aided by the continent's rich soccer culture — is starting to close the gap ahead of the 2023 Women's World Cup.     A message from Upside How to fight inflation with your everyday spending     The Upside app pays you back a little from each purchase to help offset rising costs. On average, users earn $148 annually. You can get cash back at: Gas stations. Convenience stores. Grocery stores. Restaurants. Take back control of your budget and download the free Upside app.     4. ⚡️ Lightning round Photo: Evgenia Novozhenina/AFP via Getty Images   🇷🇺 Griner update: Brittney Griner is at her "absolute weakest moment in life right now," according to her wife, Cherelle. Her next hearing is scheduled for Oct. 25. ⚽️ Messi's last dance: Lionel Messi says the 2022 World Cup will be his last. The 35-year-old is still seeking his first World Cup title with Argentina, which is unbeaten in its past 35 matches. ⚾️ Shorter games: The average time of a nine-inning MLB game dropped by six minutes, likely helped by the introduction of the PitchCom electronic device to signal pitches. Coming soon: pitch clock.     5. ⚾️ Terrance Gore: Base stealer for hire Photo: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images   Pinch-running specialists are a staple of playoff baseball, and no player better encapsulates that role than Mets speedster Terrance Gore, Jeff writes. State of play: New York signed Gore to a minor league deal in June and added him to the active roster on Aug. 31, just in time to make him playoff eligible. His job for the Mets is the same as it's been for the Royals, Cubs, Dodgers and Braves across his nine-year career: stay loose and run fast. By the numbers: Gore, 31, is the only player in the modern era with fewer than 115 regular-season games played (112) and at least 40 stolen bases. He has more than half as many steals (43) as plate appearances (85), and the numbers are even starker in the playoffs, with five steals and two plate appearances in 10 games. Gore's lightning speed has earned him three World Series rings (2015 Royals, 2020 Dodgers, 2021 Braves), tied with Madison Bumgarner for the most among active players. The last word: "I'm trying to catch Tom Brady," Gore told ESPN, hinting that he's still four rings shy of his ultimate goal. "I like my odds."     6. ⚽️ MLS snapshot: Decision Day Table: Axios Visuals MLS Decision Day is upon us, with all 28 clubs in action on Sunday to close out the regular season. Where it stands: 10 of the 14 playoff spots have been secured, and seven clubs have a chance to claim the remaining four. Sunday's slate: The biggest Eastern Conference game is Orlando City vs. Columbus, while the biggest Western Conference games are Real Salt Lake vs. Portland and Minnesota vs. Vancouver. East (2:30pm ET): Orlando City vs. Columbus; Chicago vs. New England; Red Bulls vs. Charlotte; D.C. United vs. Cincinnati; Philadelphia vs. Toronto; Atlanta vs. NYCFC; Miami vs. Montreal. West (5pm): Real Salt Lake vs. Portland; LAFC vs. Nashville; Minnesota vs. Vancouver; FC Dallas vs. Sporting KC; Houston vs. Galaxy; Austin vs. Colorado; Seattle vs. San Jose. Go deeper: Full Decision Day preview (MLS)     7. 💩 Colts 12, Broncos 9 This spot was reserved for Thursday Night Football, but the game was so bad it doesn't deserve a photo. By the numbers: There were 12 punts, six fumbles, four interceptions and no touchdowns. What they're saying: The Athletic's Chris Vannini said it best: "Bad college football can be fun, even a joy, but bad NFL football is always just sad."     8. 📺 Watchlist: Wild Card weekend Graphic: Axios Visuals   The MLB playoffs begin today, with all four best-of-three Wild Card series being fought between teams that are eerily similar. Rays at Guardians (12pm ET, ESPN): Both are small-market teams with elite pitching that always find a way to do more with less. (Game 2: Sat. 12pm, ESPN2) Phillies at Cardinals (2pm, ABC): The Cards have been around since 1882, the Phillies since 1883, and of course both wear white and red. (Sat. 8:30pm, ESPN2) Mariners at Blue Jays (4pm, ESPN): Both are 1977 expansion teams who wear blue. (Sat. 4pm, ESPN) Padres at Mets (8pm, ESPN): Both are 1960s expansion franchises set to pay the luxury tax this year. (Sat. 7:30pm, ESPN) More to watch: ⚽️ Friendly: England vs. USWNT (Fri. 3pm, Fox) 🏈 NFL: Giants vs. Packers in London (Sun. 9:30am, NFL); Bengals at Ravens (Sun. 8:20pm, NBC); Raiders at Chiefs (Mon. 8:15pm, ESPN) 🏈 CFB: No. 8 Tennessee at No. 25 LSU (Sat. 12pm, ESPN); No. 17 TCU at No. 19 Kansas (Sat. 12pm, FS1); No. 11 Utah at No. 18 UCLA (Sat. 3:30pm, Fox) ⚽️ MLS: 14 games (Sun. 2:30pm, 5pm, FS1/ESPN2/ESPN+) ⚽️ EPL: Brighton vs. Tottenham (Sat. 12:30pm, NBC); Arsenal vs. Liverpool (Sun. 11:30am, USA) 🏁 F1: Japanese Grand Prix (Sun. 1am, ESPN) 🏁 NASCAR playoffs: Roval 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway (Sun. 2pm, NBC) ⛳️ PGA: Shriners Children's Open (Fri.–Sun. Golf/ESPN+) ⛳️ LIV: Bangkok (Fri.-Sun. LIVGolf.com) 🎾 Tennis: Japan Open, Astana Open (Fri.–Sun. Tennis) 🏀 NBA preseason: Four games (Fri.–Sun. NBA) 🏒 NHL preseason: 12 games (Fri.–Sat. NHL/ESPN+)     9. ⚽️ World Cup trivia Photo: Christopher Pillitz/Getty Images   Brazil, Belgium, Argentina and France will be the four top-ranked teams entering next month's World Cup. Question: Rank those countries by population. Answer at the bottom.     10. 🍿 Now streaming: "The Redeem Team" Photo: Filippo Moneforte/AFP via Getty Images   "The Redeem Team," a documentary about the U.S. men's basketball team's pursuit of gold at the 2008 Beijing Olympics following an embarrassing bronze finish in 2004, premieres today on Netflix. The 98-minute doc is directed by Jon Weinbach, who produced "The Last Dance," and LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are producers. Roster: James, Wade, Kobe Bryant (Captain), Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Jason Kidd, Deron Williams, Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince. Watch: Trailer Kobe clip Stream now     A message from Upside This app is helping users treat themselves     Upside is on a mission to make sure that, even during expensive times, people still have a little extra money for a rainy day fund. The free app gets users cash back on: Gas. Groceries. Convenience stores. Restaurants. On average, users earn $148 annually. Download the free Upside app to start earning.   Enjoy the weekend, Kendall "Missing Kobe" Baker Trivia answer: Brazil, France, Argentina, Belgium 🙏 Have a great day! Follow us for more (@kendallbaker and @jeffreytracy). Friends can sign up here. Thanks to Bryan McBournie for copy edits. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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