👀Will Markets Have a 2008 Moment This Week?

Good morning. It's a busy week for economic data. The most important will come out of the Fed...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. It's a busy week for economic data. The most important will come out of the Fed meeting this week. Most are expecting another 0.75 percent rate hike, but an increasing number of analysts see the potential for a full-point jump higher. Now, with 2-year government bonds yielding 3.93 percent, investors have a strong incentive to stay away from stocks for the time being as bond yields are starting to look attractive. Yet markets tend to be surprised. We could see a big movement up or down—akin to some of the big moves in 2008. That's because the market's largest up days tend to occur amid bull markets. We still see some downside potential in the coming weeks, then a gradual market recovery as we start to see some real progress on declining inflation rates. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Crash in housing… Destruction or opportunity? Could this be the biggest housing crisis we've ever seen? Jeff Zananiri, who helped turn a small $5.1 million dollar hedge fund into over a $700 million behemoth in just over a decade… He helped a hedge fund go 10 years straight… Without a single losing quarter… And even during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression… He helped the fund earn $1 million dollars in just 30 minutes… On a BANK stock! But - from what he's revealing today…and the Wall Street insights he's shared… Nothing he's ever done comes even close to this opportunity. MARKETS DOW 31,019.68 +0.64% S&P 3,899.89 +0.69% NASDAQ 11,535.02 +0.76% *As of market close • Markets moved higher on Monday, surging higher in the afternoon. • Oil traded flat, closing at $85.25 per barrel. • Gold also traded flat, last going for about $1,683 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies trended lower, with Bitcoin at $19,531 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS It's Time to Consider This Old-School Inflation Hedge Inflation continues to eat away at consumer's purchasing power. And while it's blindsided some investors, it's also been tough to hedge right now. That's because conventional hedges haven't worked too well yet, as investors have gone through other alternatives first. However, gold is starting to look undervalued relative to other commodities. And it has a long history of holding up well compared to inflation, both expected and unexpected, over time. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: HomeTrust Bancshares (HTBI) Robert James, a director at HomeTrust Bancshares (HTBI), recently added 2,500 shares. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 22 percent, and came to a total cost of $57,025. That's the first insider buy at the company since mid-2020. Otherwise, insiders have been big sellers of shares over the past two years, with some major sales right as the stock market started to peak nearly a year ago. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Alcoa Corporation (AA) Shares of aluminum producer Alcoa Corporation (AA) are down about in-line with the S&P 500 over the past year. One trader is betting that the company will move far lower in the coming weeks. That's based on the November $25 puts. With 59 days until expiration, 8,617 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 166, for a 32-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.32 to make the bet. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Markets Brace for Fed Hike This Week Traders have been pricing in a 0.75 percent interest rate hike this week when the Fed meets. Given some recent data showing inflation remaining hot, however, expectations have risen for a full-point increase. While there are arguments for both moves, the prospect for a "soft landing" in the economy appears to be narrowing. • 10 Year Treasury Yield Hits 2011 Levels The 10-year US Treasury now yields 3.51 percent. That's the highest level for the government bond since 2011. It's also a sign that traders expect a big rate hike from the Fed this week, and that the Fed is likely not yet done with its rate hikes at this time. The 2-year Treasury is also now yielding at its highest levels since 2007, and 3.93%. • Potential Home Sellers Turning to Rentals As mortgage rates rise, potential home sellers are instead looking to rent out their homes rather than sell. Thanks to the massive increases in rental rates in the past few years, most homes can provide cash flow to cover costs, and the home stays with a low-rate mortgage on it. • Porsche Prepares for $75 Billion IPO German car giant Volkswagen (VWAGY) is preparing to spin off its holdings in Porsche in an initial public offering. The valuation could be as high as $75 billion for the sports car brand, and rise up to $9.4 billion, with shares initially priced between $76.50 and $82.50 per share. This would mark the largest IPO in a slow year for companies going public. • Tesla Increases EV Production Tesla Motors (TSLA) is increasing its production at facilities in Texas and Shanghai. The move comes as other automakers have announced plans to increase production of EVs in the coming years, including EV versions of popular gas-powered models. Currently, Tesla sells 4 of the top 5 EV models in the US. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP MOS 5.632% WRK 5.491% CF 5.051% IVZ 4.972% PKG 4.794% BOTTOM MRNA 7.609% MKTX 5.28% EW 4.799% AZO 2.7% GPN 2.456% Quote of the Day There is a lot of nervousness about how the global economy can affect the U.S. economy now, while the U.S. economy is dealing with its own set of very serious issues. I think that dynamic is what people have woken up to. - Callie Cox, US investment analyst at eToro, on why slowing global economic conditions amid a slowdown in the US is causing traders to rethink their portfolio allocations. Sponsored Content Crash in housing… Destruction or opportunity? Could this be the biggest housing crisis we've ever seen? Jeff Zananiri, who helped turn a small $5.1 million dollar hedge fund into over a $700 million behemoth in just over a decade… He helped a hedge fund go 10 years straight… Without a single losing quarter… And even during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression… He helped the fund earn $1 million dollars in just 30 minutes… On a BANK stock! But - from what he's revealing today…and the Wall Street insights he's shared… Nothing he's ever done comes even close to this opportunity. Not sure the best way to get started? 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