If you thought your summer utility bill was high, brace yourself for winter's electricity costs. That's in part because Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a surge of U.S. exports to energy-starved Europe are driving up the price of natural gas — the major fuel source for Americans' electricity supply. In normal times, a significant uptick in the cost of natural gas would cause power companies to switch much of their output to cheaper-but-dirtier coal — but as POLITICO's E&E News reporter Benjamin Storrow writes today, there's nothing normal about this year. Natural gas prices have risen over 200 percent in recent years. Despite this price hike, energy companies are ramping up production at U.S. natural gas plants, which are generating 7 percent more power compared with this time last year, whereas coal generation is down 8 percent. The unusual dynamic reflects the start of a new chapter in the nation's energy transition, Storrow explains. Supporters have long touted natural gas as the "bridge" between a fossil-fueled economy and an all-renewable future. But the country is stuck in the middle, unable to unleash the full potential of clean power nor return to coal after a decade of power plant retirements. The result: a stubborn dependence on gas, no matter the costs. But it's not all bad news. Not going back to coal has meant lower levels of planet-warming emissions. By some estimates, power plant carbon pollution dropped 1.7 percent so far this year. Coal generation may be shrinking in the national rearview mirror, but swapping out a fossil-fueled grid for a renewable one takes time. Despite significant gains in the last few years, clean energy accounts for only 13 percent of total U.S. power generation. And political and technical hurdles remain. For example, when solar and wind farms began to take off 10 to 20 years ago, they were programmed to temporarily switch offline during certain events that might damage their equipment, like a downed power line. As POLITICO's E&E News reporter Miranda Willson notes, that made sense when renewables made up a small portion of the grid. But now, these tripping incidents, as they're called, are leading to serious, albeit short-lived, blackouts — alarming power operators. "The truth is, we're not really making headway in terms of a solution," National Renewable Energy Laboratory chief engineer Barry Mather told Willson. For now, the U.S. is standing squarely on the natural gas bridge. But if the world cannot find a way to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including from natural gas, scientists warn the climate consequences will be dire.
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