Thursday, July 14, 2022

✌️What These Two Factors Say About Yesterday’s Record Inflation

Good morning. The unexpectedly high inflation report increases the chances that the Federal...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The unexpectedly high inflation report increases the chances that the Federal Reserve will hike another 0.75 percent later this month. Some traders are even betting on a full point increase in interest rates. Whatever the outcome, a few signs are coming in that inflation may soon peak.

That's based on two factors. The first is that commodity prices have taken a big hit in recent weeks. Energy in particular has slid, which is a core cost for economic inputs, as well as one of the biggest drivers of inflation over the past year. Next, there's rising expectations for interest rate cuts in 2023. In other words, expectations are rising that inflation will drop substantially in the coming months, and that the Fed may overshoot, leading to rate cuts next year.

Until then, the latest data is bearish in the short-term. Traders should look for a further downtrend in the coming weeks as the next rate hike could end up higher than expected.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,772.79 -0.67%
S&P 3,801.78 -0.45%
NASDAQ 11,247.58 -0.15%
*As of market close
Stocks closed lower on Wednesday, but well off of their morning lows.
Oil traded flat, closing at $95.74 per barrel.
Gold rose 0.4 percent, last going for $1,732 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded mixed, with Bitcoin at $19,665 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Now's The Time to Look for Well-Managed Companies Lagging Peers
A company's management can make or break a business. Some managers are so good that they can even become household names. Most aren't so lucky. That's how rare that quality is.

In today's markets, with nearly everything selling off, great companies with strong management are seeing their share price sag even if they're setting up their business to prosper with the next economic turnaround.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN)
Wayland Hicks, a director at Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN), recently added 2,000 shares. The buy increased the director's stake by just under 2 percent, and came to a total purchase price of $61,700.

This marks the first insider buy at the company in the past three years. Company insiders, including both executives and directors, have been regular sellers of shares over the past three years, largely clustered around the issuance of stock options.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Amazon (AMZN)
Shares of tech and retail giant Amazon (AMZN) are more than 40 percent off of their 52-week high after adjusting for the stock's recent share split. One trader sees a rebound in shares in the latter half of the year.

That's based on the December $166 calls. With 155 days until expiration, 3,019 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 124, for a 24-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.86 to make a bet on the rebound.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Inflation Hits 9.1 Percent

The June CPI data shows that inflation hit an annualized rate of 9.1 percent. That's in excess of the 8.8 percent that economists were predicting. That will likely lead to another steep interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve later this month.
Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates 1 Percent

In an effort to front-load its interest rate increases, the Bank of Canada raised rates by a full percentage point. That leaves the interest rate in Canada at 2.5 percent, and is the largest move from the bank since 1998. The central bank sees a need for more rate hikes to slow price growth.
Social Security May See Double-Digit Cost of Living Adjustment

Based on the latest inflation data, Social Security beneficiaries could see increases of as much as 10.5 percent in the next year. That's higher than prior estimates for an 8.6 percent increase. At 10.5 percent, the average benefit would increase by $175.10 per month to $1,668.
Starbucks Announces Store Closings Over Personal Safety Concerns

Coffee giant Starbucks (SBUX) is looking to close 16 locations due to safety concerns. The locations are in Seattle, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Washington DC, and Portland. The move is also coming as the company looks to change its culture, and as a number of locations have seen workers vote to unionize their workforce.
TikTok Looks to Add Content Filters

Social media platform TikTok is rolling out a system to restrain certain types of content from being viewed by teenage users. This content control platform can potentially make the app safer, while also giving users more control over the content that they see.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
TWTR 7.751%
TCOM 6.446%
NTES 3.746%
MOS 3.365%
CTRA 3.227%
BOTTOM
ZM 6.218%
FAST 5.981%
ODFL 4.825%
DAL 4.6%
GWW 3.786%

Quote of the Day
The Fed's credibility will be tested in coming months with the release of inflation numbers and corporate earnings. The Fed's recent aggressive actions to bring down inflation also run the risk of overshooting, pushing an economy that had been showing signs of weakness into a full scale recession.
- Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI, as economic data indicating a recession may suggest a need for the Federal Reserve to change course rather than continue to raise interest rates

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According to trading legend Keith Kaplan… this secret "cash spout" exists in a hidden corner of the stock market - which FORCES instant payouts out of every trade. If you'd like to discover how you can start making these trades...

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