Axios World: Biden's Mideast misses

Plus: 2 world leaders resign | Thursday, July 14, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Babbel   Axios World By Dave Lawler · Jul 14, 2022 Welcome back to Axios World. Tonight's edition (1,791 words, 7 minutes) comes to you from the New Jersey shore. I'm here for a wedding (congrats K+R!). New arrival? Subscribe.     1 big thing: Biden's 3 big Middle East misses Biden speaks after arriving in Tel Aviv. Photo: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg via Getty   President Biden's trip to the Middle East this week inadvertently underscores the fact that at least three big promises he made before taking office have been abandoned or remain unfulfilled. 1. The Iran nuclear deal is still in tatters despite the fact that restoring it was arguably candidate Biden's only first-tier policy objective toward the region. Standing alongside acting Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid today, Biden pledged not to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, while noting that he still hoped to resolve the crisis diplomatically. With talks stalled, Iran has continued to accelerate its nuclear activity. Biden's aides have been insisting for months that the window to salvage the deal is closing. It's not clear what exactly plan B might entail. Biden has taken flak from advocates of the deal for declining to invest much political capital into saving it and for refusing to meet Iran's demand to lift Donald Trump's largely symbolic terror designation for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Biden said today that the U.S. offer to re-enter the deal was already on the table, while warning Tehran "we're not going to wait forever." 2. Biden's Saudi stop stands in stark contrast to his campaign trail promise to make the kingdom a "pariah" over its human rights abuses, particularly the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Asked today if he'd raise Khashoggi with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Biden demurred but said his position on the murder was "so clear" that everyone understood it. Biden's initial refusal to engage directly with the crown prince — and the release of an intelligence report blaming MBS for Khashoggi's murder — appears to have hampered the administration's efforts to convince Riyadh to increase its oil output. Biden has clearly calculated that it's worth making a controversial visit in order to reset relations, though many progressives disagree. 3. Biden promised a far more positive reset in relations with the Palestinians, including a key commitment to reopen the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem that served as the U.S. diplomatic mission to the Palestinian Authority until Trump closed it in 2019. But the leaders of Israel's fragile coalition (which recently collapsed) warned the Biden administration that reopening the consulate would be a political bombshell in Israel and help bring former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu back to power. Biden has taken a number of steps to restore aid to the Palestinians and rebuild a relationship that cratered under Trump, but he's left the consulate pledge unfulfilled. The Palestinian leadership has very low expectations for Biden's visit to the occupied West Bank tomorrow. One promise Biden didn't make was progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The process that preoccupied so many of Biden's predecessors is completely stagnant, due primarily to Israeli politics. It hardly featured on Biden's agenda in Israel and was only addressed in vague terms in today's "Jerusalem Declaration" on U.S.-Israel relations. What's next: After meetings with Israeli leaders today and Palestinian leaders tomorrow, Biden will fly to Saudi Arabia to meet the king and crown prince and attend a summit with regional leaders. What to watch: The Israeli government today approved the parameters of a deal around two strategic Red Sea islands that will pave the way for Saudi Arabia to take steps toward normalizing relations with Israel, Axios' Barak Ravid scoops. Go deeper.     2. Two world leaders resign in one day Celebrating the news in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Photo: Abhishek Chinnappa/Getty Images   Sri Lankans are celebrating in the streets tonight after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa formally resigned... in an email from Singapore. State of play: Rajapaksa fled his home before it was occupied on Saturday by protesters who blame his policies for the country's worst-ever economic crisis. He turned up in the Maldives and then traveled on to Singapore, all without formally resigning. There are still questions now that he has resigned. For one thing, the speaker of Parliament says there will have to be a legal process before Rajapaksa's resignation is officially confirmed tomorrow. Protesters are wary of another delay. Then there's the fact that Rajapaksa's hand-picked successor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, is set to succeed him as interim president and then seek the presidency in his own right when Parliament (which is dominated by Rajapaksa loyalists) reconvenes. Many protesters see him as complicit in the crisis. Finally, there's the question of what will happen with Sri Lanka's unsustainable debts. The IMF will demand serious political reforms as part of any bailout package. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said today that she'd press China at a G20 gathering this week to restructure bilateral debts with Sri Lanka and other struggling borrowers. There are also questions in Italy after Prime Minister Mario Draghi tendered his resignation today... but the president swiftly rejected it. State of play: Draghi's move came after the populist 5-Star party, the largest constituent of the unity coalition Draghi has led since February 2021, pulled its support from a key vote. Why it matters: Draghi was brought in to provide stability amid the COVID crisis after a previous government collapsed. He'll likely seek to reshuffle his government without an election. But if Italy does go to the polls, the far-right Brothers of Italy would have a strong chance to finish first.     3. Race to replace Boris Johnson down to 5 candidates Boris Johnson announces he's stepping down. Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images   The race to become the U.K.'s next prime minister is down to the final five after a second vote among Conservative MPs was held today. Former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak (101 votes) and Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt (83 votes) again led the way. Arch-conservative Attorney General Suella Braverman (27 votes) endorsed Foreign Secretary Liz Truss (64 votes) after being eliminated. If Truss takes most of Braverman's supporters, she could catapult up into the top tier and start to consolidate the party's right flank behind her. Former Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch (49 votes) and centrist ex-Army officer Tom Tugendhat (32 votes) also survived today's vote. What's next: The remaining candidates will take part in TV debates on Friday, Sunday and Monday. Three additional rounds of voting among Conservative MPs are expected next week, with one candidate eliminated each time until the field is whittled down to two. After that, the broader party membership of perhaps 200,000 voters will pick the winner. A YouGov poll shows Mordaunt far ahead of her rivals among the party members, but she's relatively unknown to the country at large. Just 20% of Brits say they know at least "a fair amount" about the former defense secretary, according to an Ipsos poll. Go deeper: U.K.'s Conservative leader contenders pitch themselves as next Margaret Thatcher     A message from Babbel Start speaking a new language in just 3 weeks     Babbel helps millions of people speak and understand a new language through its scientifically proven teaching method. The deets: The platform offers multiple ways to learn a language through daily lessons, podcasts, games, live online classes and more. Get up to 60% off your subscription.     Bonus: Where in the world? Today, we're visiting eight islands that are shared between countries or constituent parts. Can you name those parts? It may get harder as you go. Ireland (one island, two countries). Great Britain (one island, three nations). Hispaniola (one island, two countries). Cyprus (one island, one country, one unrecognized state). New Guinea (one island, two countries). Saint Martin (one island, two countries). Timor. Borneo (one island, three countries). Scroll to the bottom for the answers.     4. Global news roundup Jair Bolsonaro. Photo: Buda Mendes/Getty Images   1. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is preparing to hold a vote on a narrow version of the Senate's expansive China competitiveness bill, focusing solely on emergency funding and a new tax credit for the semiconductor industry, a source familiar with his plans tells Axios' Alayna Treene. 2. Europe's ongoing heat wave could last a total of several weeks and is expected to break a number of all-time records across the continent, Axios' Ivana Saric writes. 3. Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro's re-election bid got a big boost today when Brazil's Congress passed a budget-busting spending bill that will bolster welfare programs but could fuel inflation. Meanwhile, the murder of a local official from the opposition party has led to fears of further political violence ahead of October's vote. 4. The jubilation that many Chinese nationalist netizens expressed over last week's assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe underscores the depth of anti-Japan sentiment in China — and the challenge Beijing faces in controlling the domestic nationalism it has often stoked, Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian writes. 5. The UN and Turkey both hailed progress Wednesday toward an agreement to open some Ukrainian ports for grain exports. Turkey says the long-sought agreement will be signed next week, but the difficult diplomatic dance is not yet over. Kyiv says at least 20 people were killed in Russian rocket attacks in a central city today. Meanwhile, Ukraine keeps on pummeling Russian ammunition depots with the new rockets it received from the U.S.     5. Data du jour: Gender gap still larger than before pandemic Data: World Economic Forum; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Progress toward gender equality slid into reverse around the world during the pandemic. Now it's stalling, according to the World Economic Forum's annual gender gap index. The report measures gender parity along four categories: economic participation and opportunity, educational attainment, health and survival, and political empowerment. The U.S. ranks 27th. It's the economic category that's regressing. Around the world, women left the workforce in 2020 to care for children and other relatives at home. And many haven't returned — or are trying to catch up to where they were before, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Go deeper.     6. What I'm reading Between long flights and beach trips, I've been squeezing in some summer reading. These books aren't new or particularly beach-y, but in case you need a recommendation... "The World for Sale": Price spikes for oil, wheat and metals are now front page stories, but before picking up this book, I hadn't given a second's thought to the swashbuckling and often corrupt currency traders who move those products around the world. It's an often mind-boggling and occasionally infuriating look at an aspect of the global economy that's typically shielded from view. (Oxford University Press) "Boom Town": This one isn't exactly international, but I can't remember the last book I enjoyed as much as this trip through the truly bizarre history of Oklahoma City — a metropolis that was founded by settlers who literally raced each other to claim their plots, and which has been striving for relevance ever since.(Crown Publishing) King Leopold's Ghost: I'd been meaning to read this book for years but wasn't sure if I could stomach it. I'm glad I did. It's a surprisingly pacey read and focuses almost as much on the people who helped expose King Leopold II's atrocities in the Belgian Congo as the king and henchmen who perpetrated them. (Bookshop.org)     7. Stories we're watching Carrying firewood in northern Kenya, which is facing a prolonged drought. Photo: Simon Maina/AFP via Getty   Wildfires and heat ravage Europe U.S. drone strike in Syria kills senior ISIS leader Putin to visit Iran Euro hits parity with dollar Mo Farah fallout UNSC gives in to Russia, extends aid to Syria for only 6 months COVID shakes up Tour de France leaderboard Quoted: "One doesn't have to be brilliant to attempt a coup." — CNN's Jake Tapper "I disagree with that. As somebody who has helped plan coup d'etat, not here, but other places, it takes a lot of work." — Former national security adviser John Bolton. His remarks were seized upon by China, Russia and several other countries.     A message from Babbel Learn a new language this summer with up to 60% off     Babbel provides a flexible, fun and easy way to explore and understand a new language quickly, and with confidence. The strategy: The platform's speech recognition technology helps you improve your pronunciation and accent right from the start. Get conversational in just three weeks.   Answers: 1. Republic of Ireland, U.K. (Northern Ireland); 2. England, Scotland, Wales; 3. Dominican Republic, Haiti; 4. Cyprus, Northern Cyprus; 5. Indonesia, Papua New Guinea; 6. France, the Netherlands; 7. East Timor, Indonesia; 8. Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia Key: 1. Ireland; 2. Great Britain; 3. Hispaniola; 4. Cyprus; 5. New Guinea; 6. Saint Martin; 7. Timor; 8. Borneo. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. 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