🗳️ Axios AM: The great realignment

Plus: Vans of the future | Thursday, July 14, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Meta   Axios AM By Mike Allen · Jul 14, 2022 Happy Thursday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,176 words ... 4½ mins. Edited by Noah Bressner.     1 big thing: The great realignment Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios   Shifts in the demographics of the two parties' supporters — taking place before our eyes — are arguably the biggest political story of our time, Axios' Josh Kraushaar reports. Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white. Why it matters: Democrats' hopes for retaining power rest on nonwhite voters remaining a reliable part of the party's coalition. Their theory of the case collapses if Republicans make even incremental gains with those voters. What the data show: Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among Hispanics on the generic congressional ballot, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll out this week. Dems held a 47-point edge with Hispanics during the 2018 midterms. An NBC News poll in April found Democrats held a 38-point lead among women with college degrees — up 10 points from 2010. Democrats lost ground in nearly every other demographic. Nearly every House pickup in the 2020 election came from a woman or nonwhite challenger. What's happening: Democratic strategists say the party's biggest vulnerability is assuming that the priorities of progressive activists are the same as those of working-class voters. Progressive activists led the push to cut police budgets. Communities of color have borne the brunt of higher crime. Hispanics living on the U.S.-Mexico border are more likely to favor the tougher border security measures championed by Republicans. The recall of liberal school board members and a district attorney in San Francisco was fueled by disillusioned Asian-American Democrats. Between the lines: Add the reality of growing inflation and worries of recession, and you see why Democrats are losing ground with a core part of their coalition. This week's Times/Siena poll found affluent voters care about gun control and abortion rights. Working-class voters are squarely focused on the economy. Reality check: Suburban districts still make up the majority of congressional battlegrounds, and the GOP's Trumpified brand remains a threat to limit their gains. Since the abortion ruling, Democrats have made small gains in national polls. The bottom line: The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads. Share this story. 🐘 First look: The Republican Party is launching a program to help immigrants — and prospective voters — prepare for the civics portion of the naturalization test, Axios' Sophia Cai reports. Keep reading.     2. 🍽️ Inflation's bite Data: BLS. Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios Food prices helped drive the Consumer Price Index up 9.1% in the past year — the biggest annual increase since November 1981 (41 years). Food rose 10.4% in the past year, the fastest pace since February 1981. Energy prices were responsible for more than half of the monthly gains in headline inflation, with gas prices rising over 11% last month, Axios' Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown report. Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, tells Axios: "While ... this is hard on American families, it is backward-looking, and we have seen some pretty important declines in energy prices over the past few weeks." ⛽ The average price of regular-grade gas fell 19¢ over the past two weeks. Today it's at $4.61 nationally. Go deeper.     3. Scoop: GOP warms to paid family leave Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios   Republicans are taking a renewed post-Roe interest in paid family leave — traditionally a Democratic priority, Axios' Sophia Cai and Emily Peck report. Why it matters: Republicans urgently want to establish themselves as pro-woman and pro-family, as critics accuse the party of caring about children only before they're born. Three key GOP senators made the point in conversations with Axios: Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.): "We're going to have to step up and do more. And I think that people are prepared to do that." Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa): "We have to start thinking in terms of some of these things — now that Roe has been overturned, to be more supportive of families and mothers." Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.): "We should at least be providing as much help to women who decide to keep their child as those who decide to terminate the pregnancy." How it works: Democratic proposals are typically structured as tax-funded payments straight to workers. But the GOP has long opposed this framework. Rubio's "Pro-Family Framework" features an expansion of the child-care tax credit to include "unborn children," and a paid family leave proposal he floated back in 2018 with Ivanka Trump. Flashback: Paid leave was one of the first items to fall out of Biden's Build Back Better bill. Share this story.     A message from Meta The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real     Meta is helping build the metaverse so aviation mechanics will be able to practice servicing different jet engines – preparing them for any complex job. The results: A more skilled workforce. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse.     4. 📷 1,000 words Photo: Jacquelyn Martin The first state-commissioned statue of a Black woman is now in the Capitol's Statuary Hall, honoring Dr. Mary McLeod Bethune of Florida, a trailblazing educator and civil rights champion. Above: Evelyn Bethune (left, in yellow), a granddaughter of Mary McLeod Bethune, speaks with Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) as members of the Congressional Black Caucus gather around the unveiled statue. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) is at front right. Go deeper.     5. 🇮🇱 Biden in Israel Photo: Amir Cohen/Reuters President Biden — trying (unsuccessfully) to avoid handshakes on his Mideast swing — fist-bumps with Prime Minister Yair Lapid at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv yesterday. Biden heads to Saudi Arabia tomorrow.     6. Scoop: Trump's return to Washington Former President Trump speaks at a rally in Anchorage last week. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Former President Trump is returning to Washington later this month for the first time since the end of his presidency, Axios' Alayna Treene has learned. Why it matters: Trump's planned July 26 visit — to headline an event for the America First Policy Institute — comes amid the revelations of the House's Jan. 6 committee hearings. Trump will deliver the keynote on the second day of the group's policy summit, which will feature high-profile Republicans, including former Trump officials, members of Congress, governors and state officials. The event is invitation-only, but will be livestreamed and open to the press. America First Policy Institute is led by senior Trump administration officials. Full list of speakers.     7. 🔋 4,500 vans — to go, please Photo: Canoo   Canoo's stock spiked after the electric-vehicle startup announced a deal to sell 4,500 delivery vans to Walmart, Nathan Bomey writes in Axios Closer. Canoo last year said it was moving its HQ from Texas to Bentonville, Ark., making it corporate neighbors with Walmart. Canoo warned investors just two months ago of "substantial doubt" about its ability to stay afloat. Why it matters: The vans, which hit the road next year, help Walmart bolster its delivery and supply-chain infrastructure. It also injects life into the ailing community of EV startups, several of which have been teetering amid doubts about competing with established automakers. Walmart bought the Lifestyle Delivery Vehicles (LDV) with the option to purchase up to 10,000. Canoo said it'll make the van in Pryor, Okla., "further establishing an EV ecosystem in the heartland." Walmart S.V.P. of innovation and automation David Guggina said the deal will "expand our last mile delivery fleet in a sustainable way," widening "same-day deliveries while keeping costs low." Watch a video about the deal ... Share this story.     8. 🚲 1 for the road Photo: Alex Broadway/Getty Images The Tour de France peloton climbs Les Lacets (shoelaces) de Montvernier in the French Alps during Stage 11 yesterday. Photo: Alex Broadway/Getty Images     A message from Meta The metaverse will make learning more immersive     Virtual reality will enable students to see and experience biological concepts in new ways — deepening their knowledge and sparking curiosity. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse.   📬 Invite your friends to sign up here for their daily essentials — Axios AM, PM and Finish Line. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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