Wednesday, July 13, 2022

😦Prepare for a Further Market Decline in the Coming Weeks

Good morning. While we await confirmation that the US is in a recession already, and that it...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While we await confirmation that the US is in a recession already, and that it likely started in January, we're still seeing warnings that markets may continue to decline further. The latest goes back to the yield curve for US Treasuries. This has historically been a strong indicator of a recession within the coming months.

Currently, the yield curve is now at its most inverted since early 2007, when investors were still generally upbeat about the economy right before the housing market crashed. We may see a similar trend play out today thanks to rapidly rising mortgage rates. And as long as the Federal Reserve remains committed to raising rates, the market will face downside pressure. Keep looking for put option trades to benefit from downswings in prices until the Fed changes course.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,981.33 -0.62%
S&P 3,818.80 -0.92%
NASDAQ 11,264.73 -0.95%
*As of market close
Stocks dropped on Tuesday, ahead of the next CPI data on Wednesday.
Oil sank 8.1 percent, closing at $95.64 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.5 percent, last going for $1,724 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies slid, with Bitcoin at $19,443 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Keep Accumulating Industry-Leading, Inflation-Beating Consumer Goods Plays Here
Markets can turn on a dime. One piece of good news, whether from earnings reports, the Federal Reserve, or a change in government policy could turn around the current market fears. While there may be more downside first, that just gives investors a few extra weeks or even months to buy great companies at reasonable prices.

That's especially true when buying shares of consumer goods companies. These stocks tend to trade at a premium, but can become a reasonable value in a bear market.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Earthstone Energy (ESTE)
Jay Joliat, a director at Earthstone Energy (ESTE), added 20,237 shares. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 10 percent, and came to a total price just under $236,000.

This marks the first insider buy at the company since early 2021. Otherwise, company insiders, including both executives and directors. Over the past three years, the insider sales have been relatively consistent, with only a few periods of insider buys.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Micron Technology (MU)
Shares of semiconductor company Micron Technology (MU) have lost one-quarter of their value in the past year. One trader sees a possibility for further downside in the months ahead.

That's based on the December $52.50 puts. With 156 days left until expiration, 14,048 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 500, for a 28-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $4.28 to bet on shares further declining.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Dividend Payouts Hit Record High

While market prices have been trending down this year, corporate payouts in the form of dividends are rising – and even hit a new record. In the most recent quarter, S&P 500 companies paid out $140.6 billion in dividends, up from $123.4 billion in the same quarter a year ago.
Ackman Winds Down SPAC

Billionaire Bill Ackman is returning the roughly $4 billion raised from investors for a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), Pershing Square Tontine Holdings (PSTH). The investor has failed to find a suitable target to acquire with the fund, and is citing the quick recovery in capital markets from Covid as a reason for the lack of a deal.
Peloton to Stop Manufacturing Its Own Products

In an effort to cut costs, struggling fitness company Peloton (PTON) will stop making its own bikes and treadmills. The company has inked a deal with a manufacturer in Taiwan to take over production, and the company has scrapped plans for its own manufacturing facility in Ohio.
Canoo Surges on Walmart Deal

Electric van manufacturing company Canoo (GOEV) saw its shares soar yesterday, on news that Walmart (WMT) had agreed to buy at least 4,500 vehicles from the company to build out its delivery fleet. The retailer may buy as many as 10,000 vans from Canoo as it looks to expand its ecommerce delivery services.
Twitter Attorneys Call Musk's Deal Termination "Invalid"

In a letter to the SEC, attorneys for Twitter (TWTR) have called Elon Musk's decision to terminate the acquisition deal "invalid and wrongful." This follows up on Musk and his legal team's decision to kill the deal on the ground that the company made "false and misleading representations" as to the number of true active users versus bots on the platform.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
AAL 10.089%
UAL 7.874%
BA 7.497%
CCL 7.419%
DAL 6.248%
BOTTOM
NOW 12.59%
ENPH 8.197%
PAYC 7.526%
WST 5.802%
NOV 5.667%

Quote of the Day
In terms of S&P earnings, for instance, we think we're already moving towards an earnings recession. Companies are getting squeezed at all sides, they're getting squeezed on cost of goods and the wages and all things that go into input from our manufacturing goals or services. And on the other end, we think revenues are starting to flatten before turning down at a time when interest cost is going up...That's a lot of downgrades, a lot of potential defaults coming from the system as a result of higher charges.
- Bruce Richards, Marathon Asset Management analyst, on why earnings will likely come in lower, further weighing on the stock market in the third quarter of the year.

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