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| Presented By BlackRock® |
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| Axios Sneak Peek |
| By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Jul 13, 2022 |
| Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 975 words ... 3.5 minutes. ⚡ Situational awareness: The Biden administration is open to Congress cutting bait on its sweeping China competition bill and focusing solely on passing billions in funding for the semiconductor industry, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told Axios' Hans Nichols. Go deeper. |
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| 1 big thing: Hill's post-Roe showdowns |
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| Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios |
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| Still reeling from the Supreme Court's decision to end Roe v. Wade, congressional Democrats are readying legislation to codify nationwide contraceptive access, LGBTQ marriage and parenting rights — and even potentially long-settled precedent on interracial marriage, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. - The question: Will Republicans go along, or block them?
Why it matters: Democrats' strategy serves a dual purpose. If the measures pass, it's a significant assurance for millions of Americans worried that conservative state legislatures are coming for them next. - If the measures stall, it may give Democrats — the clear underdogs heading into November — more potent ammunition to retain and turn out voters.
- "Republicans should be accountable for this MAGA Supreme Court ruling that has called into question everything," Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Axios.
What we're hearing: Whether the House of Representatives will vote on these bills before or after they break for a lengthy August recess has yet to be decided, according to Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). - "I do believe that we should move with urgency," Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), chair of the House Democratic Caucus, told Axios.
- Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said the bills would be "a priority" for him if they passed the House, and that he's discussed the issues with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
How we got here: In a concurring opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health — the ruling last month that ended federal abortion rights protections — conservative Justice Clarence Thomas wrote justices should "reconsider all of this Court's substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence and Obergefell." - In other words, he called for the Supreme Court to take another look at contraception, same-sex intimacy and same-sex marriage.
- Thomas was the lone justice to advocate for this. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi responded by saying the opinion "confirmed many of our deepest fears about where this decision may lead," vowing to "codify freedoms which Americans currently enjoy."
What to watch: Bills are still being hammered out by Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee to specifically address the rulings Thomas referenced, Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) said. - Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) cited a repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act as one potential avenue for codifying gay marriage.
- Rep. Deborah Ross (D-N.C.) said she's seen language around protecting access to contraception, and that the panel will discuss these issues at a hearing tomorrow.
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| 2. 🗣️ Part II: Republicans on the record |
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| Justice Clarence Thomas (left) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the Heritage Foundation on Oct. 21, 2021. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images |
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| In interviews today with Axios, more than 20 Senate Republicans — including several seen as moderates or bipartisan dealmakers — declined to state definitively how they would vote on bills to codify rulings on gay marriage, contraception and even interracial marriage. - Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), asked if such bills could get 10 Republican votes, told Axios: "It's hard to say. I haven't looked at them. ... I haven't even given any thought to that."
- Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Democrats are "grasping at straws" in an election that will be about inflation and rising costs. He declined to say how he'd vote, telling Axios that first "I want to see the bills."
- Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) called codification votes "incredibly stupid" and "pure messaging."
- Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.): "I think the premise there is that it's somehow likely the Supreme Court is going to overturn basically their entire substantive due process law. ... I think the chances of that are approximately zero. … The premise here is a false premise, so I wouldn't be inclined to take the bait."
Worth noting: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said in a statement after the Dobbs ruling that she's working with Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) on a bill to codify rulings protecting abortion and contraception. Keep reading. |
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| 3. 💸 Scoop: ICE short $345 million |
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| Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios |
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| U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will run out of money before October unless the Department of Homeland Security pulls millions of dollars from other programs, three sources familiar with the details tell Axios' Stef Kight. Why it matters: The surge of migrants at the border has driven up costs for ICE, one of the most controversial government agencies and a target for progressives because of its role in arresting and detaining undocumented immigrants. - Under President Biden, ICE is poised to spend more taxpayer funds than ever as it closes an estimated $345 million shortfall for the current fiscal year.
What we're hearing: Around $100 million is expected to come from the Coast Guard budget, two sources told Axios. - Around $80 million might be achieved by moving existing ICE funds around internally.
Keep reading. |
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| Invested in the future of retirees |
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| All across the country, people are working hard to build a better future. So, we are hard at work, helping them achieve financial freedom. At BlackRock, we are proud to manage the retirement plan assets of over 35 million Americans. Learn more. |
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| 4. ✏️ Charted: GOP gerrymanders |
 Data: The Cook Political Report. Chart: Jared Whalen and Baidi Wang/Axios 17 former swing districts — out of a total of 90 in 2021 — are now more favorable for Republicans after lines were redrawn through redistricting, Stef writes from the 25th anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The bottom line: After redistricting, the number of hyper-competitive House seats declined from 51 to 45 — Cook Political Report's lowest count ever. Share this data. |
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| 5. 🇮🇱 Parting shot |
| Photo: Evan Vucci/AP President Biden was briefed on the Iron Dome and other cutting-edge Israeli air defense systems with Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz (left) and Prime Minister Yair Lapid at Ben Gurion International Airport. - Asked about Democrats who oppose funding for Iron Dome and call Israel an "apartheid state," Biden told N12 News: "There are a few of them. I think they're wrong; I think they're making a mistake. Israel is a democracy, is our ally, is our friend."
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| A message from BlackRock® |
| Invested in the future of first responders |
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| We're proud to manage the pensions of those who serve others. All across the country, we're helping Americans invest for their future. Meet Joshua, one of the hundreds of thousands of first responders whose retirement plan assets are managed by BlackRock. Learn more. |
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 | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | |
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