Tuesday, July 19, 2022

🌎 New Manchin optimism

Plus: GOP's oil amnesia | Tuesday, July 19, 2022
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Jul 19, 2022

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,051 words ... 4 minutes.

Situational awareness: 47 House Republicans joined Democrats to pass legislation that would repeal the Defense of Marriage Act and enshrine marriage equality into federal law.

 
 
1 big thing: Gambling on Manchin — again
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and President Biden. Photos: Kevin Dietsch; Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images

The White House and some Senate Democrats aren't giving up on Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) just yet — and are leaving the door open to pursuing climate legislation in a potential second reconciliation package, Axios' Hans Nichols and Alayna Treene report.

Why it matters: The keep-hope-alive approach means President Biden can't antagonize Manchin by taking immediate executive actions on issues that matter deeply to the moderate West Virginia senator, like pipeline permitting.

The latest: The White House decided not to declare a "national climate emergency" this week that would have opened up federal resources to address global warming, AP first reported. However, Biden is expected to announce some executive actions aimed at addressing the issue.

State of play: Democratic leaders still plan to move quickly on legislation that lowers the cost of prescription drugs and provides subsidies for the Affordable Care Act — and get it to Biden in early August before Congress leaves for recess.

  • But if June's 9.1% inflation rate cools off enough to keep Manchin interested, they could take a final shot at the climate provisions he forced them to abandon this month.
  • "We're open to it, whatever the vehicle may be," Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told Axios. "There is a second possibility."

Driving the news: Over the weekend, Democrats were depressed and demoralized that Manchin appeared to slam the door on the climate provisions after spending the year winnowing down the core of Biden's ambitious Build Back Better agenda.

  • Some outside climate advisers urged Biden to declare a climate emergency and achieve administratively what he couldn't accomplish legislatively. If executive action was the only route, there was no need to keep Manchin happy or be sensitive to his pet priorities, some Democrats argued.
  • But then Democrats started to process what Manchin actually said on Hoppy Kercheval's West Virginia radio show last week. They didn't hear a final "no."
  • "We have to take Sen. Manchin at his word. He says it's not off the table," Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) told NBC News on Monday.

What they're saying: Manchin today seemed willing to address climate policy this summer. "Let's see what the Congress does. The Congress needs to act," he told ABC when asked whether he supports Biden declaring a national climate emergency.

  • "We are going to keep fighting on climate, " Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said at his weekly press conference. "We're going to look at everything we can do. ... There's always a second reconciliation bill available to us."
  • "We're much closer to a climate deal than people realize. Let's not throw in the towel just yet. Fighting climate change is more important than any August recess," Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) tweeted.

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2. 🛢️ Scoop: GOP's oil reserve amnesia
Photo illustration of President Biden, Donald Trump, Chinese currency, and oil textures.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Chris Kelponis-Pool, Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

 

Republicans in Congress are demanding investigations into the Biden administration's recent release of oil to a China-owned firm with which the president's son Hunter once had business dealings.

But government data indicates the Trump administration also sold oil from the U.S. strategic reserves to China's largest oil producer in 2017, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

  • Documents show that, like the current administration, the Trump administration sold to the highest competitive, non-sanctioned bidders, including Chinese companies — as is required by law.

Driving the news: "When Republicans control the gavel, we will get answers," Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, told Breibart, previewing a line of investigation if Republicans take control of the House.

  • Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, tweeted that the Biden administration's sale was a "misguided/harmful action" that needs "further scrutiny -esp if his sons China biz could benefit."

What they're saying: "Their hypocrisy — slamming the Biden administration for doing exactly what the Trump administration also did — isn't surprising, but it reveals just how eager they are to use lies to attack the president," said Ian Sams, a spokesman in the White House counsel's office.

Keep reading.

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3. 👀 '24 watch: DeSantis gains ground
Ron DeSantis

Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

 

A Detroit News poll of likely Republican primary voters found Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis statistically tied with Trump in a hypothetical 2024 GOP presidential field, with Trump's favorability rating dipping from 84% to 76% since May, Axios' Josh Kraushaar writes.

Why it matters: Republican voters increasingly appear willing to entertain — and even favor — a conservative alternative to Trump. DeSantis is the early front-runner.

The big picture: Individual polls don't necessarily mean much — especially this early — but the trends bear watching.

  • Last month, the University of New Hampshire found DeSantis statistically tied with Trump in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire.
  • Two recent private polls in Florida gave DeSantis a clear advantage in his home state.

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A message from Toyota

Driving the U.S. economy
 
 

In 1986, Toyota broke ground on its first U.S. vehicle plant in Georgetown, Kentucky.

The result: Since then, more than 26 million Toyotas have rolled off U.S. assembly lines, and there are now 11 — soon 12 — Toyota plants across the country that employ hundreds of thousands of people.

See more.

 
 
4. ✅ Charted: Trump's endorsement success rate
Data: Ballotpedia. Chart: Nicki Camberg/Axios

Four out of five candidates endorsed by Trump won their election last year — up from just 57% in 2017, according to data from Ballotpedia reviewed by Axios' Stef Kight.

By the numbers: Trump has already endorsed more candidates in 2022 than any other year, with 223 regular endorsements and two more in special elections.

  • Amid speculation his kingmaker status is fading, it's too soon to tell how Trump's 2022 record will stack up to past years — but his candidates have won their primaries 93% of the time so far.

👀 Stunning stat: At least 120 election deniers have already won the GOP nomination for Senate, House, governor, attorney general and secretary of state races, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight.

Go deeper: Stay up to date on Trump's record in competitive races with Axios' Trump endorsement tracker.

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5. 🇺🇦 Parting shot
Jill Biden, Olena Zelenska, Joe Biden

Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP

 

President Biden and first lady Jill Biden welcomed Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska to the White House ahead of her planned address to Congress tomorrow.

Latest: The U.S. declassified intelligence indicating the Kremlin is "reviewing detailed plans" to annex multiple Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine.

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A message from Toyota

From paper to pavement
 
 

Every single hour, Toyota spends over $1 million on research and development. Since 2009, it's received more patents than any automaker.

Even better: Much of what rolls off the line here is homegrown. Like the Tundra: designed in California, engineered in Michigan and built in Texas.

Learn more.

 

📬 Thanks for reading! Send us feedback by hitting reply to this newsletter or emailing us at sneak@axios.com.

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Why are billionaires loading up on oil?

JP Morgan analysts have pegged the future price of oil at $380.............................................................................