News : POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: Crunching the N.J. congressional fundraising numbers

Tuesday, July 19, 2022

POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: Crunching the N.J. congressional fundraising numbers

Jul 19, 2022

Presented by Rise Light & Power

Good Tuesday morning!

When Democrats were poised to take a majority in the House in the 2018 midterms, you could see it coming in New Jersey candidates' fundraising. At this point four years ago, Democratic challengers were out-raising Republicans in four of the five districts the GOP held. That included two of the three Republican incumbents who were running for reelection that year.

Now, there are plenty of factors that indicate Republicans are poised for a wave election, but here in New Jersey, it's not really apparent in the fundraising. While 7th District Republican candidate Tom Kean Jr. has put up some pretty strong fundraising numbers, Democratic candidates — who now have a much bigger incumbency advantage — are dominating.

There is a big caveat. The biggest single fundraiser during the last reporting period, which ran from May 19 to June 30, was Republican 3rd District candidate Bob Healey, who raised about $1.25 million — twice as much as his opponent, Rep. Andy Kim. But of that total, $1 million came from Healey's own pocket. So while the money will be useful for Healey, it doesn't point to an enthusiastic pool of donors.

In fact, if you look at the four districts where Democrats are considered at least somewhat vulnerable this year — 3, 5, 7 and 11 — the Democratic incumbents have nearly $29 million on hand to their Republican challengers' $3.1 million (Granted, most of those Republicans had primaries and the Democrats didn't, but the Democrats raised more money as well).

But, while I think this is interesting, I don't think this contradicts the conventional wisdom that 2022 will be a bad year for Democrats. At the state level last year, Republicans trailed in money but still picked up seven legislative seats, including state Sen. Ed Durr, who spent very little to topple Steve Sweeney. And I can't tell you which side will get more help from super PACs and other outside groups.

DAYS SINCE MURPHY REFUSED TO SAY WHETHER HIS WIFE'S NON-PROFIT SHOULD DISCLOSE DONORS: 153

WHERE'S MURPHY? Italy

WHERE'S OLIVER? No public schedule

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "[T]his was a prime event in the history of the country. I think we've got to get to the bottom of it. And we've got to find out everything about it, mainly so we can prevent it ever happening again. And she's an important part of that process." — Former Gov. Tom Kean on his $1,000 donation to Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, vice chair of the Jan. 6 Committee

TIPS? FEEDBACK? HATE MAIL? Email me at mfriedman@politico.com

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Assemblymember Antwan McClellan, Green Party's Barry Bendar, Marcus Group's Tom O'Neil, Mercer County's Jim Castelize

A message from Rise Light & Power:

The Clear Choice for NJ Clean Energy — What would advance New Jersey as a national leader in the fight against climate change and repurpose a decades-old brownfield? Transforming the site of a former coal plant into a gateway for offshore wind with strong community support. That's the Outerbridge Renewable Connector, an "extension cord" connecting clean offshore wind energy to New Jersey's power grid.

WHAT TRENTON MADE

THE GUNDEN STATE — "Want to carry a gun in NJ for self defense? Prepare to train, spend – and get sued," by The Record's Steve Janoski: "[E]ven though the court struck down New York's restrictive process for obtaining a gun carry permit — and simultaneously eviscerated New Jersey's similarly rigid standards — a host of questions remain about how to secure a permit, when and where gun owners will be able to carry their weaponry and what sort of trainingpermit holders should seek out. Then there's the question of how likely prosecutors are to bring charges against those who use their legally carried weapons — and the potential lawsuits gun owners face even if they're cleared of criminal wrongdoing … Before the ruling, authorities granted an average of only about 530 permits to private citizens each year, according to data from the New Jersey State Police. That's expected to change drastically. State police Superintendent Col. Patrick Callahan has said he expects upward of 200,000 people to apply for a permit to carry a handgun"

CHART OF THE DAY — The Kaiser Family Foundation looks at the correlation between gun access and suicide rates by state. New Jersey has the lowest suicide rate in the country. More here.

WHAT TRENTON DIDN'T MAKE — Hochul, Adams strike cost-splitting deal for controversial Penn Station project, by POLITICO's Danielle Muoio Dunn: The decades-long push to upgrade Penn Station, the busiest rail hub in North America, is one step closer to reality following a landmark agreement between state and city officials. Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams have struck an agreement on how to pay for the midtown Manhattan train station's rehabilitation and the redevelopment of the surrounding area. Under the deal, private developers will get tax breaks to help fund many of the proposed improvements — a system known as Payments in Lieu of Taxes, or PILOTs.

—"Economists question lawmakers' plans to address inflation"

—" Bruck returns to U.S. Department of Justice in top post"

HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ROE BEING OVERTURNED? JOIN WOMEN RULE ON 7/21: Now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade , abortion policy is in the hands of the states and, ultimately, voters. Join POLITICO national political correspondent Elena Schneider for a Women Rule "ask me anything" conversation featuring a panel of reporters from our politics and health care teams who will answer your questions about how the court's decision could play out in different states, its impact on the midterms and what it means for reproductive rights in the U.S. going forward. SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS AND REGISTER HERE.

BIDEN TIME

SAUDISHACK — "9/11 families call on Trump to cancel Saudi-backed golf event," by The New York Times' Azi Paybarah: "Relatives of people killed on Sept. 11 are urging former President Donald J. Trump to cancel a Saudi-backed golf tournament set to be held this month at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in New Jersey. In a letter dated Sunday, members of the group 9/11 Justice asked to meet with Mr. Trump and urged him not to host the event, set for July 29 to 31, noting that Mr. Trump has blamed Saudi Arabia for the attack. 'We simply cannot understand how you could agree to accept money from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's golf league to host their tournament at your golf course, and to do so in the shadows of ground zero in New Jersey, which lost over 700 residents during the attacks,' they wrote in the letter … In the letter, the group noted that Mr. Trump told Fox News in February 2016: 'Who blew up the World Trade Center? It wasn't the Iraqis. It was Saudi. Take a look at Saudi Arabia.' … On Sunday night, Brett Eagleson, the president of 9/11 Justice, said he emailed the letter to a Trump aide in the afternoon and had not received a response."

VEEP — " 'Freedom and liberty and democracy are on the ballot,' VP Kamala Harris tells NAACP convention," by NJ Advance Media's Jonathan D. Salant: "Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday sounded an alarm for a woman's right to choose and the ability to vote and against gun violence as she urged members of the NAACP's national convention in Atlantic City to protect hard-fought constitutional guarantees she said are now being eroded. 'Freedom and liberty and democracy are on the ballot, and we have to make sure our voices are heard,' she said, in a speech clearly aimed at laying out what was at stake in the coming 2022 midterm elections … [I]t was guns, abortion and voting rights that was at the forefront of her concerns as she spoke to a large crowd in Atlantic City."

DERP OF A SALESMAN — "N.J. salesman admits being inside U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, where he FaceTimed a friend," by Kevin Shea for NJ.com: "A New Jersey man recently admitted to being inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, when marauders tried to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election. Lawrence Dropkin, Jr. pleaded guilty last week to four crimes that accused him of illegally entering and parading inside the Capitol, federal court records in Washington, D.C. show. He is scheduled to be sentenced in October. He describes himself on social media as Larry Dropkin, a sales executive working in New Brunswick."

A FORMER TRUMP WARRIOR MEAN MEAN LIES TODAY WITH BETH SAWYER MEAN MEAN PRIDE —"Man accused of delivering fake elector list to U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 has N.J. ties," by New Jersey Globe's David Wildsteon: "Michael Roman, a former Trump campaign operative who allegedly delivered lists of fake electors to the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, did work on Chris Christie's 2013 re-election campaign and now heads the political operation of freshman Assemblywoman Beth Sawyer (R-Woolwich), the New Jersey Globe has confirmed. POLITICO first reported on Friday that Roman, who ran Election Day operations for Trump's 2020 re-election campaign, was the one who delivered false elector certificates to the chief of staff to a Pennsylvania congressman, Rep. Mike Kelly, in an attempt to get them to Vice President Mike Pence."

—"Pascrell: Trump knowing rioters were armed most damning piece of evidence"

A message from Rise Light & Power:

LOCAL

CYBERSPACE — "Cyberattacks keep crippling NJ towns, and no one is tracking it ," by The Asbury Park Press' Susanne Cervenka: "A review by the Asbury Park Press found about three dozen cyber attacks that surfaced in news articles on New Jersey local governments going back to 2010. But the New Jersey Municipal Excess Liability Joint Insurance Fund, a government agency that insures 637 local agencies in the state, said they see about 30 to 35 cyber attack claims each year. Even that number may be off since it only includes claims filed by its members … [I]t can be hard for the public, and even law enforcement, to pin down just how frequently attacks are hitting in New Jersey. Governments are required to notify the public only if individuals' data were released during a cyber attack. And certain types of cyber incidents, like ransomware attacks and any attack that might have been caused by a foreign actor, have to be reported to federal authorities. But as it stands, no regional or state authority in New Jersey tracks, in any definitive way, how frequently cyberattacks occur. What is clear, however, is that it is happening far more frequently than is being reported to the public. Legislation pending in Trenton could change that."

MANVILLE — " N.J. Attorney General takes over investigation into claims that police chief sexually assaulted aide," by NJ Advance Media's Susan K. Livio: "The state Attorney General's Office is leading the investigation into allegations that the Manville Police Chief repeatedly sexually assaulted an employee who has sued the borough for permitting a "prolonged pattern and practice of abhorrent sexual harassment," NJ Advance Media has learned. Both the attorney for the plaintiff alleging the assault and labor counsel for Manville confirmed the Attorney General — the top law enforcement officer in New Jersey — is leading the investigation into the claims filed against Police Chief Thomas J. Herbst … The woman, whom NJ Advance Media is not identifying because she is an alleged victim of sexual violence, accused Herbst of masturbating in front of her at work and touching her inappropriately on a regular basis while he was a lieutenant and her supervisor, beginning in 2009. The lawsuit alleges he later raped the woman approximately 10 times in the police archive room and began to regularly rape her at her home and in a hotel parking lot during her lunch hour."

— " Trenton councilwoman files police report against local animator for alleged harassment," by The Trentonian's Isaac Avilucea : "West Ward Councilwoman Robin Vaughn and cartoonist Frank Sasso are trading punches again. The city leader filed a police report against Sasso, alleging he anonymously taunted her at a meeting by flashing "racist" caricatures, including one showing Vaughn as a 'witch,' according to body-worn camera footage and a report obtained by The Trentonian … Vaughn referred to the antics as that of a 'serial killer,' saying she interpreted 'The Ren and Stimpy Show' animator's apparent pledge to ensure she isn't re-elected in the fall as a mark on her life. 'I know Frank. He has harassed me before in the past on Facebook. He made a threat. 'Robin you will not get elected again. I'll make sure you do not get elected,' Vaughn told the officer who took the report. 'So what are you going to do? Kill me? How do you make sure I [do] not get elected?' Vaughn admitted to police that she didn't have ironclad proof that Sasso was behind the virtual trolling, which came from a person logged into the meeting as "Coco." But she assumed Sasso was responsible for the taunts because his cartoon rendering of Vaughn was one of the images that flashed across the screen at the July 13 meeting."

—" Should Holmdel voters dump parties and elect the mayor? They decide next week"

—"Prosecutor: Harrison construction clerk stole $62k from her department over 6 years "

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EVERYTHING ELSE

SPACEBALLS PAC WILL HELP DRUISH CANDIDATES — "New bipartisan PAC will help Jewish candidates in New Jersey," by New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein: "A new bipartisan political action committee, Justice Equity Wins (JEWPAC), has been formed to help Jewish candidates win public office in New Jersey. 'We will support Jewish candidates for state and local office to embody Jewish values,' said Miranda Meyers, a PAC co-chair … ''With the recent rise in anti-Semitism in New Jersey and across the country, I am looking forward to ensuring that a louder, more unified Jewish community's voice is heard at all levels in our State,' Meyers said. The PAC cited a record number of antis-Semitic incidents in 2021, and a 2019 incident where a group of Trenton local officials unabashedly used 'Jew them down' to describe the process of negotiating a better price."

HIGHER ED — "Struggling NJCU is pondering hard choices. It can look to William Paterson for some answers," by The Jersey Journal's Haresh Oudhnarine : "In the three years since Skyline Hall opened, it's become the most-requested living space on campus. University leaders say it's worth the $40 million it cost to build. Now, however, WPU is paying the price. Like New Jersey City University in Hudson County, another regional college that grew into a huge state institution with thousands of staff and students, WPU is in financial trouble. Years of generous spending on expansive facilities and academic programs left the university vulnerable when COVID-19 struck, enrollment declined and income from tuition — which drives 70% of the university's budget — suddenly dropped. Today, WPU is like an island recovering from a hurricane — a perfect storm that's forced dozens of layoffs and several cuts to academic majors, with more likely to come. It's what many think is in store for NJCU, which disclosed last month that it's suffering through a similar storm."

— "N.J. students are still behind in learning. Will summer school be the 'magic fix'?"

—"NJ warehouse market still red-hot despite economic headwinds"

—" Residents are leaving in droves from these towns in NJ"

—"'Slap in the face': Rabbi's NJ victims outraged over bid for Israeli citizenship"

A message from Rise Light & Power:

The Outerbridge Renewable Connector (Outerbridge) – a proposal before the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities – would enable the state to harness offshore wind energy by repurposing an abandoned brownfield, revitalizing an industrial-zoned waterfront, and supporting the local and state economy without impacting our beaches.

Outerbridge, proposed by Rise Light & Power, would be an underground electrical transmission project functioning as an "extension cord" and connecting energy generated by offshore wind farms to New Jersey's power grid. Outerbridge would support New Jersey's economic growth and resilience strategy. It is projected to deliver clean energy to 1.4 million homes and generate more than $1 billion in economic activity.

The project would minimize community disruption, protect environmentally sensitive areas and repurpose the past to power the future. Outerbridge would play a key role addressing the health and economic dangers of climate change while protecting the Jersey Shore we know and love.