| | | | | | | | | | | Axios Generate | | By Ben Geman and Andrew Freedman · Jul 06, 2022 | | 🐪 Somehow it's Wednesday already! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,190 words, 4.5 minutes. 🚨 European lawmakers voted today to classify some natural gas and nuclear power as "green" energy in a move that may have implications elsewhere. 🎸 We're almost 52 years since The Who released a wildly good cover that's today's intro tune... | | | | | | 1 big thing: Under the heat dome, a European trend |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | A major new study explains why Western Europe has suffered through a series of extreme heat waves that are outpacing even the planet's overall warming trend, Andrew writes. - The study points to stubborn changes in atmospheric circulation for much of the blame.
Why it matters: Heat waves are deadly. Increases in their frequency and intensity — already taking place due to global warming — raise these risks. Zoom in: The new study, published in Nature Communications, finds that the upward trends in Western European heat waves are tied to the flow of air in the jet stream in and around the region. - Specifically, the researchers found that a particular weather pattern, featuring two branches of fast-moving corridors of air across Eurasia, is most closely associated with Western European heat waves.
- These weather patterns favor weaker upper-level winds over Western Europe, and encourage long-lasting, blocking high-pressure areas, also known as heat domes.
- Increasingly persistent double jet stream patterns and their associated heat domes can explain "almost all of the accelerated trend" in heat waves across Western Europe, the study states.
The big picture: Importantly, the study ties the persistence of particular jet stream patterns and related heat domes to the rapidly warming land temperatures in the Arctic, and the growing contrast between land and ocean temperatures there. - Such thermal gradients can influence weather patterns.
- The research also fits with prior studies of how simultaneous extreme heat events can develop in different parts of the world as climate change worsens.
Yes, but: The study cautions that there are still uncertainties regarding what is causing the increase in the occurrence and persistence of these particular weather patterns, noting that climate models may not be simulating them accurately. What they're saying: "Climate models tend to underestimate extreme weather risks," said study co-author Kai Kornhuber of Columbia University, in a statement. "Projections of extreme heat under continued greenhouse gas emissions might be too conservative." |     | | | | | | 2. Economic clouds are cooling the oil market |  Data: Yahoo Finance; Chart: Axios Visuals Oil prices dropped sharply Tuesday as traders pondered how inflation and the possibility of a global economic recession might cool demand, Ben writes. Driving the news: U.S. futures fell below $100-per-barrel for the first time since early May (though they inched back above $100 this morning), while the global benchmark Brent crude tumbled, too. Why it matters: The movement shows how competing pressures of gloomy economic news and the crisis over Russia's unprovoked war on Ukraine — which sent prices soaring — are swaying tight energy markets. What they're saying: "If a recession materializes and inflation continues to push prices for almost everything higher, oil demand is almost certain to fall, bringing prices with it," Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson said in a note. Dickson called movement below $100 "a psychological sell-off level for many traders who are penciling in an economic downturn of some degree." Yes, but: Huge shrug emoji energy here. Oil prices love defying predictions. - "While the odds of a recession are indeed rising, it is premature for the oil market to be succumbing to such concerns," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note, via Bloomberg.
- "The global economy is still growing, with the rise in oil demand this year set to significantly outperform GDP growth."
| | | | | | | | 3. Outgoing OPEC head Barkindo dies at 63 |  | | | Mohammad Barkindo in 2019. Photo: Anindito Mukherjee/Bloomberg via Getty Images | | | | OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo has died in his home country of Nigeria, the organization announced Wednesday. The cause was not immediately provided, Ben writes. The big picture: Barkindo, whose six-year tenure was ending this month, steered the group through tumultuous times. His stint included OPEC's sometimes fraught alliance with Russia; the U.S. shale surge; the COVID-19 pandemic that crushed demand; and market shocks from Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. What they're saying: "Mohammad Barkindo will be remembered as a significant figure in the history of global energy governance," Joseph McMonigle, head of the International Energy Forum, said via Twitter. "He was an exceptional diplomat who made a remarkable contribution to the stability of global energy markets." Reuters has more. | | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | What matters this year in climate VC, PE and M&A | | |  | | | | What's new: The latest Axios Pro industry report is here. Learn what's moving markets and driving valuations across the climate industry, plus analysis on our four other Pro verticals. Download the report. | | | | | | 4. Tackling hydrogen's low-key climate problem |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | Hydrogen leakage in the fuel's development chain and use is a poorly understood climate risk that demands more research and safeguards, a new analysis warns, Ben writes. Driving the news: The paper via Columbia University's energy think tank finds there's "very little data" on the topic, and what's out there comes via "theoretical assessments, simulation, or extrapolation." Why it matters: While hydrogen is not a greenhouse gas (GHG), its escape allows some planet-warming gases to stick around longer in the atmosphere. - Methane, water vapor and some other GHGs are "gradually neutralized" through reactions with molecules called hydroxide radicals.
- But hydrogen reacts with those radicals, "delaying the neutralization of the GHGs" and thereby increasing their lifetimes, the analysis notes.
The big picture: Hydrogen, if produced cleanly, could play an important role in decarbonizing polluting industries, heavy-duty transport, power and more. Hydrogen projects and startups are attracting investment from oil giants, VC funds, the Energy Department and others. What's next: The paper calls for better measurements, research into methods of preventing leaks, and new regulations to stem the problem. Read the report. | | | | | | | | 5. Taking Facebook users' climate pulse |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | An expansive poll of Facebook users globally finds a wide spectrum of views on climate change but the majority belief that steps to tackle the problem won't hamstring economies, Ben and Andrew write. Driving the news: A few points from the collaboration between Facebook parent Meta and Yale researchers... - Climate is a hot topic — in some places. Users in Sweden and Germany are most likely, at 66%, to report hearing about it at least weekly. Users in Yemen (7%), Algeria, and Cambodia (both 9%) are least likely.
- Large majorities (70%-plus) in North America and many EU countries say they know a lot or a moderate amount about climate. But in many vulnerable areas — such as Nigeria and Haiti — these totals are far lower.
- Most believe action to address climate change will boost economic growth and jobs, or at least not hurt. Some 77% in Malawi, Brazil and Angola agree with this. Czechia (47%) and Japan (50%) are the lower bound.
What they're saying: "There's still a huge need for just raising basic awareness of climate change in many parts of the world, especially those most vulnerable," said Anthony Leiserowitz, who heads the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. But divisions in the U.S. — "where those who don't believe in climate change, it's often for political reasons, or ideological reasons" — are atypical elsewhere. Check out the survey. | | | | | | | | Bonus: U.S. data points |  Data: Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios Stopping climate change is a lower concern for U.S. voters than energy prices and inflation more broadly, a new survey finds, Ben writes. Driving the news: The chart above is one finding from the wider late June survey by the Harris Poll and Harvard's Center for American Political Studies. Why it matters: The results arrive as the clock dwindles on efforts to move sweeping clean energy legislation in this Congress — and maybe for years. | | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | What matters this year in climate VC, PE and M&A | | | | | | | | What's new: The latest Axios Pro industry report is here. Learn what's moving markets and driving valuations across the climate industry, plus analysis on our four other Pro verticals. Download the report. | | | | 📬 Did a friend send you this newsletter? Welcome, please sign up. 🙏Thanks so much for reading, and we'll see you back here tomorrow. |  | It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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