Thursday, June 16, 2022

😳Once Again, the Markets Get It Backwards

Good morning. In the investment realm, bad news has often been treated as good news. A souring...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. In the investment realm, bad news has often been treated as good news. A souring economy tends to look bullish for stocks, a trend that's gone back over 10 years now.

Why? Traders and investors alike tend to see a slowing economy as one likely to get support from the Federal Reserve. And there may even be some fiscal stimulus too, with the precedent of the pandemic to draw from. Traders came into yesterday's Fed meeting expecting a 0.75 percent rate hike. Stocks surged as the bigger hike prospects – which over the longer-term will slow economic activity – was seen as good news.

It's clear even with the latest Fed numbers that traders need to remain cautious, and look to hedge with some downside put option plays, and even with trades like covered call writing in their existing stock positions.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,668.53 +1.00%
S&P 3,789.99 +1.46%
NASDAQ 11,099.15 +2.50%
*As of market close
Stocks soared on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percent.
Oil slid 2.6 percent, closing at $115.82 per barrel.
Gold rose 1.2 percent, ending the day at $1,834 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies continued lower, with Bitcoin at $21,664 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
The Market Loves This Investment Strategy Right Now
The stock market is usually driven by growth names. While some of those stories fail to pan out, when the going gets tough, the market tends to pivot towards certainty. And nothing is as certain as regular cash dividends.

Over time, dividend payers outperform non-dividend payers. And dividend stocks that grow their payouts do even better than those with a consistent payout. So it's no surprise that companies that can grow their dividends now are getting some big market attention.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Alliant Energy Corp (LNT)
Nanco Falotico, a director at Alliant Energy Corp (LNT), recently added 1,200 shares. The buy increased her stake by 12,000 percent, and came to a total price just over $73,000.

This marks the first insider activity since late 2019. Back then, there were a number of insider buys and sells. And going further back, both company directors and executives have been modest buyers and sellers of company shares.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Starbucks (SBUX)
Shares of coffee shop chain Starbucks (SBUX) are trading near a 52-week low. One trader sees the possibility for a further significant drop ahead in the coming months.

That's based on the December $50 puts. With 183 days until expiration, 3,948 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 103, for a 38-fold rise in volume on the contract. The buyer of the puts paid $1.54 to make a further downside bet on shares.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Retail Sales Post First Decline in Five Months

Retail sales dropped 0.3 percent in May. That marks the first drop for retail sales in five months. The move comes as consumers are looking to step back from spending amid high levels of inflation. Economists were expecting a rise of 0.2 percent in sales for the month.
Homebuilder Sentiment Hits Lowest Level in Two Years

Sentiment among homebuilders has dropped for the 6th month in a row. Sentiment is now reading at 67, the lowest point in two years. Any read over 50 is bullish, but the index has been as high as 90 at the end of 2020. Homebuilders have cited rising interest rates and a drop in mortgage demand leading to a slowdown as the major cause.
Majority of Manufacturing CEOs See Recession

59 percent of manufacturing CEOs see a high likelihood of a recession in the next year. The data, collected by the National Association of Manufacturers, also indicates that 75 percent of CEOS sees inflationary pressures as worse today than just six months ago.
US Home Equity Hits Record High

Home equity hit a valuation of $27.8 trillion in the first quarter of the year. The rise is about a 20 percent increase compared to the prior year. While the highest level on record, there may be declines in the coming quarters as higher interest rates are making mortgages more expensive, which may weigh on home prices.
Netflix Launching Real-Life "Squid Game"

Streaming company Netflix (NFLX) is launching a reality competition series based off of the South Korean hit Squid Games. 456 competitors will compete for $4.56 million, making it the largest game show payout in history, as well as the largest reality TV cast in history.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
BA 10.044%
MELI 9.841%
NFLX 9.075%
CEG 8.229%
WED 7.368%
BOTTOM
VLO  3.821%
SLB 3.448%
MPC 3.419%
BKR 2.87%
FE 2.709%

Quote of the Day
We expect a tumultuous year, and our plan was not to sell into extreme whooshes — I would say we are in an extreme whoosh. I would say if you are looking to cut back exposure because money availability and the outlook isn't so great, I would love to do it on a ramp — some kind of oversold bounce — [rather] than into an extreme whoosh.
- Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity, noting that the extreme market selloffs tend to lead to strong rebound rallies, which are more ideal for investors looking to reduce their stock holdings now.

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