News : Has Rick Caruso hit his ceiling?

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Has Rick Caruso hit his ceiling?

Jun 15, 2022

By Lara Korte, Jeremy B. White and Sakura Cannestra

Presented by California Environmental Voters

THE BUZZ: Things just got a lot tougher for the Los Angeles billionaire jockeying to take the top job in City Hall.

Rick Caruso, despite spending nearly $40 million of his own fortune and changing his registration to Democrat, didn't manage to win last week's primary outright. Now, he'll face off with progressive Democratic Rep. Karen Bass in November — a competition that's likely to be much more challenging.

And on Tuesday evening, Caruso's prospects got a bit bleaker, with the latest ballot drop putting him in second place, 2.76 percentage points behind Bass. It's a good sign for his competition, but by no means a disqualifier. The fact that a former Republican — who jumped into the race at the last minute — managed to win such a large chunk of support in a field of qualified and well-known Democratic candidates still makes him a formidable adversary.

And, we should note, this ranking isn't final — ballots are still being counted in Los Angeles County, so he could surge ahead yet again.

Regardless of where the vote lands in the primary, Caruso will face a different set of obstacles in five months, most notably, a very different electorate. As POLITICO's Alexander Nieves reports, Bass was considered an early frontrunner for the job, until Caruso steamrolled his way into contention. His campaign spending far surpassed Bass — who spent approximately $3 million — leading up to primary day, hammering away on issues like crime and homelessness that Californians say are among their top concerns.

Without a doubt, Caruso's personal fortune and ability to speak to voter concerns around crime and homelessness will continue to be major factors in November, but some say he may have missed his shot after failing to get more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary. The reality is that primary voters tend to be older, whiter and wealthier, a demographic that certainly works in his favor. Jessica Levinson, a professor at Loyola Law School and expert in ethics and elections, told Alexander the general election will attract a group that is "slightly younger, more diverse," and will "probably break more heavily for Bass."

You can also bet on a stronger Bass in November. Caruso has collected an impressive collection of celebrity endorsements (Kim Kardashian, Snoop Dogg, Gwenyth Paltrow), but Bass on Tuesday night snagged the endorsement of the Los Angeles Democratic Party , which had declined to back a candidate in the crowded primary field. With that endorsement comes a corresponding boost in funding and campaign infrastructure, like increased staffing.

One key missing endorsement? Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has declined to back anyone in the race for Los Angeles mayor. Newsom, speaking on Fox 11's "The Issue Is" show, said he's known Caruso "for years, " and said he was a great help on the state's economic development task force during the pandemic. "I have deep respect for both of them, and have not gotten involved in this race," Newsom said.

We would be remiss if we did not note that Newsom's longtime political advisers at Bearstar Strategies are also the chief consultants on Caruso's campaign. Bass also endorsed former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, not Newsom, in the 2018 gubernatorial election.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. ICYMI yesterday: two senate committees passed an amendment that would enshrine abortion in the California constitution, the first hurdles for a ballot measure that is likely to make big waves in November.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We had all of this testimony from his own people – his attorney general, his campaign staff — they were all Republicans, they were all Trump supporters, telling him these complaints had been investigated and they weren't true." San Jose Rep. Zoe Lofgren following the second Jan. 6 committee hearing, via KPIX5.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Assemblymember Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton) @quirk_silva on the difficulties of passing housing bills: "So I am trying to figure out our housing policy. We get hit by NIMBY'S, they just don't want housing, we get Hit by environment groups, you can't build here, there everywhere,we get hit by labor, unless they get all three of their asks in legislation, then they will oppose housing."

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: stand with our kids! Your choices in this year's state budget can save California from a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Invest California's record budget surplus in climate solutions now. The governor's $47.1 billion proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years. We need at least $75 billion invested in a Climate Courage Budget. The choice is yours. Our kids' future is at stake.

Top Talkers

— "California's sham budget and unintended consequences," opines Dan Walters for CalMatters: "The 1,000-page budget being passed this week is another sham, drafted largely in secret with minimal public exposure and many blanks to be filled in later. Democratic leaders and Gov. Gavin Newsom are still at odds on multi-billion-dollar issues, including the size and form of payments to Californians to offset inflation."

— "California coronavirus cases remain elevated as wave continues ," by the Los Angeles Times' Luke Money and Rong-Gong Lin II: "it's too soon to say whether a plateau or a downturn is imminent. Modeling from the California Department of Public Health suggests that the spread of COVID-19 is likely still increasing in Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley and Greater Sacramento, but might be stable in the San Francisco Bay Area and the northern swath of the state."

CAMPAIGN MODE

— "The fight over car-free JFK Drive isn't finished, and it could be coming to S.F's November ballot," by the SF Chronicle's Ricardo Cano: " San Francisco's Board of Supervisors voted to keep the eastern portion of JFK Drive in Golden Gate Park closed to car traffic after years of contentious debate. Now a group wants to bring the issue to the voters."

—"This San Francisco math teacher's longshot campaign to lead California's public schools is still alive ," by the East Bay Times' Kayla Jimenez: "[Ainye Long's] run for office was so grassroots that she said she spent just over $500 and campaigned by carpooling with a former sorority sister. In a tumultuous time for the California public school system, largely incited by the COVID-19 pandemic, Long's surprise showing has stirred up a once-sleepy re-election campaign for California's superintendent of schools Tony Thurmond."

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— "California's plan to provide food assistance to undocumented residents leaves some out," by CalMatters' Melissa Montalvo and Jeanne Kuang: "The budget bill the state legislature passed Monday includes a proposal by Gov. Gavin Newsom to allow immigrants age 55 and older who are currently shut out of food stamps programs to receive the benefits."

MORE EDD WOES — "Calls overwhelm disability benefits call centers," by CalMatters' Grace Gedye : "Calls to California's Employment Development Department disability insurance call centers surged to 12 times their normal volume in late 2021 and early 2022 as the department dealt with fraud. Many went unanswered, leaving some Californians in the lurch for months."

— "Study: California 'red flag' law may have stopped 58 gun massacres ," by the Mercury News' John Wolfolk: "Many of the patterns revealed in the 202 cases reviewed were unmistakable: Nearly all of the people whose weapons were seized were men. More than half threatened to harm others, often intimate partners. And in nearly 30% of the cases, officers used the law to seize weapons after threats of mass shootings, including six students who had described unleashing violence at school."

PET PARENTS BEWARE — " Why toxic algae blooms are on the rise across California — and expected to get worse," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Yoohyun Jung: "These scum blooms, known as harmful algal blooms, are natural parts of the ecosystem, but can also release toxins that sicken or even kill people and animals. They're becoming more common as temperatures rise and water systems are starved and disrupted…"

— "California county offers a perk to landlords who rent to homeless veterans. Will it help?," by the SacBee's Lucy Hodgman : "The Placer County Housing Authority earlier this month began offering $1,000 bonuses to landlords who agree to rent to homeless veterans. The money is meant to give an extra incentive to California landlords to help them overcome any reservations they might have about renting to a homeless person."

GHOST RIDER — "Self-driving tractors could be widespread in California farms by next year ," by the SF Chron's Esther Mobley: "It's a small white vehicle, somewhat resembling a souped-up golf cart. A razor-like apparatus affixed to the tractor's rear mows the ground behind it. Standard procedure for a Napa Valley vineyard at this time of year, but there's one very non-standard element of this particular tractor. There's no one in it."

A message from California Environmental Voters:

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— "Google Says It Bans Gun Ads. It Actually Makes Money From Them," by ProPublica's Craig Silverman and Ruth Talbot: "A ProPublica analysis shows that before and after mass shootings in May at a New York grocery store and a Texas elementary school, millions of ads from the some of the nation's largest firearms makers flowed through Google's ad systems and onto websites and apps — in some cases without the site or app owners' knowledge and in violation of their policies."

THE GIG IS UP — " SJC rejects gig worker ballot question in victory for unions," by the Boston Globe's Matt Stout: "In a unanimous decision, the Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the tech industry-backed initiative was unconstitutional because it buried 'vaguely worded provisions' deep into a proposal that, in effect, melded two unrelated subjects under a single question."

DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

MIXTAPE

QUITE A STRETCH — "CHP seizes $200,000 in stolen Lululemon leggings," by the LA Times' Hayley Smith.

WE'RE WAITING…— "SFO says passengers should prepare for hours-long waits at security amid surge in travel," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Michael Cabanatuan.

IF A TREE FALLS — " Yosemite logging unprecedented for a national park, says conservation group suing to stop it," by the Sacramento Bee's Carmen Kohlruss.

— " Warriors folk hero Fake Klay Thompson says he was banned for life from Chase Center shortly before Game 5," by the SFGate's Grant Marek.

BIRTHDAYS

Former House Majority Whip Tony Coelho (D-Calif.) … Sophie Vaughan … Google's Rebecca Rutkoff

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: do you stand with our kids?

Your choices in this year's state budget can either save California or doom it to a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Investing California's record budget surplus in clean energy and transportation, water, and other vital infrastructure now will provide a lifeline.

Climate change will soon bring our home state to a point of no return. We can't overcome this massive threat to our health, lives, and livelihoods without bold leadership and a massive investment. The governor's $47.1 billion climate proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years.

Think bigger and pass a Climate Courage Budget that invests at least $75 billion over five years. The choice is yours but it's our kids' future at stake. Learn more here.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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