Thursday, May 12, 2022

Why Democrats don't actually ‘control’ the Senate

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May 12, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

Presented by

PhRMA

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 11: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) speak to reporters outside of the Senate Chambers at the U.S. Capitol on May 11, 2022 in Washington, DC. The Democrats failed to advance a bill that would codify abortion rights at the federal level. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer does not have the 50 votes it would take to kill or amend the filibuster and pass the abortion rights law. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

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DRIVING THE DAY

END OF AN ERA — The $375 million sale of D.C.'s Trump hotel to a group of investors who will turn it into a Waldorf Astoria wrapped up Wednesday, which NYT's Eric Lipton notes "formally ended the Trump family's business presence in Washington." Video of the hotel's "Trump" signs being removed on Wednesday night

SENATE DEMOCRATS' IMAGINARY MAJORITY — This week was another reminder that while Democrats "control" the Senate, they don't actually control the Senate.

  • Covid relief was cut from the Ukraine aid bill.
  • A national law to codify abortion protections — should the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade — came nowhere close to the 60 votes needed to advance it. And the 50 votes it would take to nuke the filibuster and pass the abortion rights law are also unavailable to Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER. More from Alice Miranda Ollstein and Marianne LeVine
  • If there are serious negotiations underway to pass a Build Back Better 2.0 in advance of the midterms, they are a well-kept secret.

As Burgess Everett writes in a must-read piece this morning, "Every day, it seems, brings another reminder of the severe limitations of Democrats' illusory majority in a 50-50 Senate."

More Burgess: "Democrats have had great success confirming President JOE BIDEN's nominees, punctuated this week by installing a new FTC commissioner who gave Democrats the majority and the first Black woman on the Federal Reserve Board. But on a day-to-day basis, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's job is an excruciating grind based on whether any of his members have Covid, if Republicans are feeling cooperative and where a handful of Democrats stand.

"And sometimes Schumer's tactics expose his own party's divisions, like when [West Virginia Sen. JOE] MANCHIN and Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) voted down an effort to gut the filibuster for elections reform, or during Wednesday's abortion vote. Manchin pleaded with his colleagues at a private party lunch on Tuesday to consider a narrower abortion rights bill than the expansive measure that failed."

Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.): "It's hard, we have the responsibility of being in the majority, without being able to count on all of the votes in our column. And that's tough."

Sen. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.): "It's a majority that comes and goes. Sort of like the tide."

Related read: WaPo's Paul Kane has a column up todayabout the death of the Senate's "messaging vote." It used to be that one party could force another to take politically sensative votes and use them against the other side on the campaign trail — just as Schumer tried to do with the abortion vote yesterday. But that's becoming increasingly difficult in this partisan era.

Case in point, per Kane: "For the vast majority of Republicans… their vote against abortion rights served as a political win in states that have skewed so conservative that their only fear is of losing a GOP primary. In these states, the vast majority of conservatives usually oppose abortion."

Good Thursday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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ICYMI: A decisive majority of Americans (86%) agree Congress should crack down on abusive health insurance practices impacting patients' access to care. Voters overwhelmingly support policies that would lower out-of-pocket costs and bring greater transparency and accountability to the health insurance system. Read more in new poll.

 

NRSC COMMENCES TV AD WAR — The NRSC is putting up $53 million in ad reservations for battleground Senate races, a whopping $20 million more than the DSCC's early investments, Natalie Allison reports this morning . It's an "aggressive strategy" to hit Dems and boost Republicans earlier than ever before (the ads start on TV this Friday in Arizona and North Carolina). The breakdown: "$9.5 million in Georgia, $9 million in Wisconsin, $9 million in New Hampshire, $8 million in Arizona, $8 million in Pennsylvania, $6.5 million in North Carolina and $3 million in Nevada … [and] $2.6 million in Wisconsin on hybrid ads jointly funded by Republican Sen. RON JOHNSON's campaign."

HAPPENING TODAY — "Justices to meet for 1st time since leak of draft Roe ruling," by AP's Mark Sherman and Jessica Gresko

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Every so often, opinion journals on the left and right take a big swing with a statement about where the country is and how their side should respond.

This morning, National Review, still the flagship journal of the American right — especially after it developed more of a nationalist perspective in the Trump years — is out with what it calls "America's Crisis of Self-Doubt — A Statement." It's online now, and will appear in the next print issue of the magazine.

Here's the key graf detailing what they see as the crisis of this moment:

"The American project, as such, is under assault. Our history is the subject of a revisionist critique that is all-encompassing, unsparing, and very often flatly inaccurate. Our traditional heroes are under threat of being run out of the national pantheon. Our institutions, from elections to the job market to law enforcement, stand accused of perpetuating a systemic racism that is impossible to eradicate. Our educational system, from kindergarten through graduate school, is increasingly a forum for crude propagandizing. Our system of government is attacked as archaic, unfair, and racially biased. Our traditional values of fair play, free speech, and religious liberty are trampled by inflamed ideologues determined to impose their will by force and fear."

Elsewhere, the authors summarize their concerns by describing them as "the illiberalism ascendant on college campuses and elsewhere" and "the rampaging anti-Americanism of our elite culture."

The statement is signed by a lot of names that will be familiar to the Playbook audience, including former A.G. BILL BARR , Arizona Gov. DOUG DUCEY, Sen. PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.), Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas), former A.G. MICHAEL MUKASEY, former Secretary of Education BETSY DEVOS, former Sen. JIM TALENT (R-Mo.), KARL ROVE, AYAAN HIRSI ALI, AVIK ROY and YUVAL LEVIN.

Two things seem especially notable to us:(1) The first is that the list of signatories leans toward the anti-Trump — or at least Trump-skeptical — side of the conservative movement, though not exclusively. (2) The second is what is not on the list of items that the authors believe contribute to the current crisis: DONALD TRUMP, his movement and their threat to democracy, all of which are central to what the left and parts of the center-right believe is the real crisis in America.

We point this out because if you want to understand American politics right now, you need to understand how the right — and the intellectual right, not QAnon conspiracists — views the alternative to the current Trumpified GOP. And this National Review statement is as good a distillation of the fears that currently animate the right as any we've seen.

 

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ICYMI: Majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation" once they learn it could restrict access and choice and chill the innovation of new treatments and cures.

 

BIDEN'S THURSDAY:

— 10:15 a.m.: The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 5:30 p.m.: Biden will host the leaders of ASEAN countries and the ASEAN secretary-general on the South Lawn, including a family photo, to kick off the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit. A dinner will follow at 6 p.m. in the State Dining Room. (More on this in a second…

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 9:30 a.m. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN will testify before the Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Speaker NANCY PELOSI will hold her weekly press conference at 10:45 a.m.

THE SENATE is in. HUD Secretary MARCIA FUDGE will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 9:30 a.m.

A conference committee will meet at 10 a.m. to try to iron out the chambers' differences on the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

President Joe Biden listens as O'Connor Farms owner Jeff O'Connor, left, speaks as Gina O'Connor, owner of O'Connor Farms, second from left, and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack looks on at the farm Wednesday, May 11, 2022, in Kankakee, Ill. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

President Joe Biden listens as O'Connor Farms owner Jeff O'Connor speaks in Kankakee, Ill. on Wednesday. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

A NEW HEADLINE THE GOP WILL LOVE — "Dissecting White House spin that most Republicans want to raise taxes." WaPo's Glenn Kessler this morning gives the Biden White House "three — nearly four — Pinocchios" for claims that Republicans want to raise taxes.

FROM CONSERVATIVE HERO TO 'RINO' — Six years ago, then-North Carolina Gov. PAT MCCRORY was a national conservative leader and lightning rod, signing the state's famous "bathroom bill" and refusing to concede his reelection loss for a month. Now he's labeled a RINO, failing to catch fire in the state's GOP Senate primary in "the latest case study of the GOP's transformation during the Trump era," Natalie Allison reports this morning. Blasted by a massive ad campaign from the TED BUDD -supporting Club for Growth and other groups, plus a less than warm dynamic with Trump, McCrory has been knocked off his frontrunner perch — and lacks the money to hit back.

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP — A RON DESANTIS-appointed judge dealt a blow to the Florida governor's attempt at a massive GOP gerrymander, ruling Wednesday that it unconstitutionally diluted Black voters' power, reports Gary Fineout.

The decision will be appealed. But in the meantime, the judge ordered an expert to craft new congressional district boundaries, or state legislators can redo the map themselves at a special session this month. If his opinion stands, it would likely net Dems one more seat in the House. More from the Miami Herald

A KEYSTONE TRIO — Three stories on Pennsylvania's big GOP primary that are worth your attention:

1. THE GOP'S BARNETTE PANIC BEGINS — As GOP Senate candidate KATHY BARNETTE mounts a come-from-behind surge in the polls, Axios' Jonathan Swan, Lachlan Markay and Andrew Solender report that Washington Republicans are beginning to worry that it's too late to stop her, even as "Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL would be dealing with a general election candidate who'd be an opposition researcher's dream." Related read: Philly Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari and Julia Terruso on the scramble to scrutinize Barnette.

2. BARNETTE CAMP DODGES QUESTIONS ABOUT BACKGROUND — The insurgent candidate's campaign manager hung up on The Washington Free Beacon's Chuck Ross when he asked questions about Barnette's military record. "The incident is the latest in a series in which Barnette's campaign has rebuffed requests for her DD214, a standard form issued to service members when they leave the military. … While there is no indication that Barnette has mischaracterized her service, it is standard practice for a campaign to substantiate a candidate's claims with such government documents." ICYMI: Washington Examiner's Salena Zito writes that Barnette is avoiding other biographical questions, such as the name of her hometown and what year she moved to the commonwealth.

3. THE PENNSYLVANIA LURCH — The rise of Barnette and state Sen. DOUG MASTRIANO in the gubernatorial primary — two hard-right candidates predicating their campaigns on lies about the 2020 election — has both parties nervous, NYT's Nick Corasaniti, Shane Goldmacher and Reid Epstein report. Republicans are worried they're too out of the mainstream to win. Democrats are worried they'll triumph anyway. Worth noting: Pennsylvania's governor appoints the secretary of state, i.e. the person who'll oversee the 2024 election in the key swing state.

THE WHITE HOUSE

HAPPENING TODAY: BIDEN PIVOT TO ASIA —  "Biden to Host Southeast Asian Leaders as He Tries to Return Focus to China," by NYT's Michael D. Shear: "Biden plans to host the leaders of Southeast Asian nations at the White House on Thursday and Friday, delivering a message of solidarity — and aiming to provide a bulwark against Chinese influence in the region — even as much of his administration remains focused on Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

The goal: "The two-day summit … is also part of an effort by Mr. Biden's foreign policy team to highlight one of the president's primary goals: assembling a united front against China as it increasingly demonstrates its economic and military might around the world. As a candidate, Mr. Biden promised to make China a central focus of his foreign policy. Instead, a senior administration official acknowledged to reporters on Wednesday that the war in Europe had created daily demands that had consumed the time and energy of the president and his team."

And coming later this month, per the AP — a trip that will also have a large China focus: "The special summit in Washington comes before Biden departs next week for a whirlwind visit to South Korea and Japan — his first visit to Asia as president — for talks with those two countries' leaders. He'll also meet during the trip with leaders from the Indo-Pacific strategic alliance with the U.S. known as the Quad: Australia, India and Japan."

BIDEN TRIES TO WIN OVER WORKING-CLASS VOTERS — The White House is making a concerted push to emphasize ties to labor unions in a bid to shore up Biden's political standing with working-class voters, Chris Cadelago reports. "Biden's moves to polish his union credentials amount to a bold bet that appeals to working Americans on economic grounds can help offset some of the damage Democrats are dealing with among the cohort when it comes to rising prices and blazing culture wars," he writes.

Yes, it's winning progressive plaudits, but taking the fight to Big Business risks alienating Biden's corporate allies. And it could complicate his inflation policy moves on issues like tariffs, the lifting of which could seriously take a bite out of high prices.

 

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ICYMI: Majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation".

 

ABORTION FALLOUT

SCOTUS WATCH — A.G. MERRICK GARLAND will have the DOJ step up security measures for Supreme Court justices, the department said Wednesday. More from Insider

NOTABLE QUOTABLE — "It might be a little messy for some people, but abortion is not going away," Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) told WSJ's Siobhan Hughes and Eliza Collins. "I just don't think this is going to be the big political issue everybody thinks it is, because it's not going to be that big a change."

CONTRACEPTION IN A POST-ROE AMERICA — On the road in San Marcos, Texas, Joanne Kenen and Alice Miranda Ollstein have a new feature in POLITICO Magazine this morning about the future of contraception — which looks unsettled even if abortion is banned. "In states like Texas, low income and uninsured women seeking birth control don't have a lot of options, and those could soon dwindle further," they write. Among the factors: pandemic burnout worsening nursing shortages, Republican restrictions on Planned Parenthood and other contraception providers, and Democratic inaction.

THE VIEW FROM BLUE AMERICA — California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM rolled out plans Wednesday to recruit business to relocate from states that ban abortion and limit LGBT rights, offering them tax breaks to move. More from the S.F. Chronicle Related read: "Newsom budget will bolster California's abortion-sanctuary status," by Victoria Colliver

TRUMP CARDS

THE INVESTIGATIONS — Trump will have a way out of a New York court's contempt order against him if he turns over certain information to state A.G. TISH JAMES and pays $110,000 by May 20. The judge in the case said Wednesday that if Trump fails to do so, "he would reinstate a $10,000 per-day fine against Trump for being in contempt for having failed to comply with a subpoena," per CNBC.

LEAKY FAUCET — Following an investigation into Trump-era media leaks from the DOJ I.G.'s office about the administration's zero tolerance/family separation border policies, an employee "abruptly resigned" ahead of questioning, per a report out Wednesday. The office said the employee had leaked the information. More from Fox News

POLICY CORNER

WHAT JOE MANCHIN IS READING — The U.S. budget deficit dropped by almost $1.6 trillion this fiscal year, per new data out Wednesday. It's down to $360 billion from October to April. More from Bloomberg

 

DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Joe Biden on Ron DeSantis' fight against Disney: "It's one thing to take on Disney World," he said. "They're going to storm Cinderella's castle before this is over."

Elon Musk is being investigated by the SEC for his delays in filing a form that made clear his stake in Twitter, WSJ's Dave Michaels scoops.

Betsy DeVos enjoyedPaul Begala's comments about the left's push to cancel student loan debt on "Real Time" with Bill Maher.

Golf legend Greg Norman sounded like he was ready to give Saudi Arabia a mulligan over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi: "Look, we've all made mistakes, and you just want to learn from those mistakes and how you can correct them going forward."

A court ruled Wednesday that the case against Crystal Mason, the Texas woman famous for receiving a harsh sentence for voter fraud (which she said she didn't know she was committing), needs to be reexamined.

OUT AND ABOUT — The Atlantic Council gave out its Distinguished Leadership Awards at the Anthem on Wednesday night to honorees Italian PM Mario Draghi, Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi, Ukrainian singer-songwriter Jamala and Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova, who accepted on behalf of the people of Ukraine (the organization's first-ever award for an entire nation). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered taped remarks (watch here), and Hillary Clinton and Condoleezza Rice delivered taped remarks honoring the life of Madeleine Albright. Also SPOTTED: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.), Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.), Fred Kempe, John Rogers, Adrienne Arsht, retired Gen. James Jones, Ryan Heath, Ali and Josh Rogin, Philip Rucker, Kevin Baron, Jennifer Griffin and Steve Clemons.

— Jeff Zeleny hosted an outdoor party Wednesday evening to toast Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns' new book, "This Will Not Pass" ($29.99). SPOTTED: Sens. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Reps. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), Colin Allred (D-Texas) and Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Terry and Dorothy McAuliffe, Stephanie Cutter, Michael Hacker, Doug Thornell, Brian and Veronica Walsh, Charlie Cook, Ken Spain, David Marchick, Matt Gorman, Ian Sams, Doug Andres, Josh Dawsey, Kevin Madden and Lily Adams.

Noticias Telemundo hosted a D.C. reception to celebrate Julio Vaqueiro, its new main anchor, on the rooftop at La Vie on Wednesday evening. SPOTTED: Pili Tobar, Jonathan Uriarte, Jennifer Molina, Ernesto Apreza, Carlos Paz, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Clarissa Martinez de Castro, Monica Gil, Mark Lima, Fin Gomez, Daniel Garza and Sabrina Rodriguez.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Cameron Trimble is now an EVP at Precision Strategies. He previously was White House director of digital engagement, and is a Biden campaign and National Museum of African American History and Culture alum.

Matt Mika is now VP of government affairs at Atlas Crossing. He most recently was director of government relations at Tyson Foods, and is a Tim Walberg, Dave Camp, Nick Smith and George W. Bush alum.

MEDIA MOVE — Hillary Frey will be the next editor-in-chief of Slate. She previously was executive editor of HuffPost and Fusion, and currently is a creator in residence at the Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY. More from the NYT

TRANSITIONS — Mitch Bainwol will be a senior adviser at Brunswick Group. He most recently was chief government relations officer at Ford Motor Co., and is an Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, Recording Industry Association of America, Senate, RNC and NRSC alum. … Lacy Nelson is now comms director for Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.) She most recently was digital director for Katie Hobbs' Arizona gubernatorial campaign, and is a Raphael Warnock and Doug Jones alum. … Michelle Kinzer is now deputy program manager for public policy at Esri. She previously was government relations manager for the American Association of Geographers.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Colorado Gov. Jared Polis Paul Begala … CNN's Natasha BertrandJoe DeFeo … Forbes' Alexandra LevinePatricia Zengerle of Reuters … NPR's Miranda KennedyJonathan Kaplan of the Open Society Foundations (5-0) … Amanda Christine Miller of PayPal … Kim DixonErica Arbetter of Google … Kevin Fox of Rep. Ro Khanna's (D-Calif.) office … Mike WesselDerron Parks of Rad Power Bikes … Amanda Schechter of the National Association of Manufacturers … former Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.) … RealClearPolitics' Philip WegmannRebecca Cantrell … CBS' Elizabeth CampbellJosh Cohen of New Heights Communications ... Leigh SzubrowskiJonathan Daniels of CRD Associates … Victoria Lion-Monroe ... Rachel McGreevy … author James Rosen  Madison Link Rees of the American Conservation Coalition … NYPD's John J. Miller Matthew Hiltzik (5-0) … Penny Lee of the Financial Technology Association … Tom Strong-Grinsell … Sharecare's Riley Brands

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According to a new poll , voters overwhelmingly support policies that would lower out-of-pocket costs and bring greater transparency and accountability to the health insurance system.

We need to make the cost of medicine more predictable and affordable. Government price setting is the wrong way. The right way means covering more medicines from day one, making out-of-pocket costs more predictable and sharing negotiated savings with patients at the pharmacy counter.

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