| | | | | | | Presented By Facebook | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team · May 12, 2022 | | Welcome back to Sneak. 📅 Join Axios' Astrid Galván and Russell Contreras tomorrow at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event examining the top concerns and key issues among Latino voters. Guests include Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and UnidosUS president and CEO Janet Murguía. Register here. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,124 words ... 4 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson. | | | | | | 1 big thing: GOP's Jan. 6 payback |  | | | Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios | | | | The Jan. 6 committee's decision to issue five major subpoenas today — two targeting potential House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan — is likely to open a Pandora's box of retaliation, write Axios' Alayna Treene, Andrew Solender and Sophia Cai. Why it matters: The GOP was already plotting revenge, and now the minority feels more emboldened than ever, Republican lawmakers tell Axios. Prepare for committee removals, retaliatory subpoenas and even impeachments should the midterms go as polls — and history — predict. - "My view on the committee has not changed," McCarthy told reporters.
- "They're not conducting a legitimate investigation. It seems as though they just want to go after their political opponents," the House minority leader added.
What we're hearing: The members of the Jan. 6 panel feel they had no choice but to issue subpoenas for McCarthy, Jordan (R-Ohio), the current Judiciary ranking member, and Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), given they know things no one else does. - Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) told reporters: "These are people who participated in the rally, were on the phone with the president, who the president reportedly told to rescind the election and one of whom may have been pursuing pardons for those involved."
- "Hard to imagine witnesses with more directly relevant evidence for the committee and more important information for the American people," Schiff added.
- While the panelists hope the members comply and testify, they privately acknowledge it's very likely they refuse, Jan. 6 committee aides tell Axios.
What we're watching: It's not uncommon to issue subpoenas against sitting members for ethics matters; it's new territory to do so for a committee investigation. - If McCarthy and his colleagues refuse, it would stymie the committee — and pave the way for Democrats to do the same in the future.
- If they do testify, Democrats themselves will be pressured to comply with almost-certain future Republican subpoenas — including on unsavory topics such as Hunter Biden.
- The level of any actual cooperation will also set a precedent: If the members come in but stonewall, Democrats will surely reciprocate if they're put in the hot seat.
Keep reading. |     | | | | | | 2. Georgia swing voters: Abortion not the central issue |  | | | Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios | | | | Georgia swing voters in the latest Axios Engagious/Schlesinger focus groups strongly support abortion rights — but say the issue alone probably won't decide who they support in November's midterm elections. Why it matters: This could limit the effectiveness of the Democrats' plans to convert public opposition to the Supreme Court's expected overturning of Roe v. Wade into a strategy to save their congressional majorities, writes Axios Atlanta's Emma Hurt. Driving the news: The limits of abortion as a voting issue was a key takeaway from our two online focus group panels Tuesday night. - They included 13 Georgians, all from the greater Atlanta metro region, who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, then Joe Biden in 2020. Three identified as Democrats, six as Republicans and four as independents.
- A focus group isn't a statistically significant sample like a poll. But the responses help show how voters in crucial states are thinking about key issues.
Details: All 13 participants said they supported keeping abortion legal. None said they would vote for Democrats in November as a "protest vote" based on the issue alone — though most said it would be one factor in their decisions. - Most participants indicated other issues ranked just as high on their priority list, including inflation, the economy, taxes, climate change and guns.
What they're saying: "Conventional wisdom has narrowed the midterm debate to abortion vs. inflation, but what we heard from Georgia swing voters upends that construct," said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. - "These voters all support Roe, but won't knee-jerk vote for Democrats in November because of abortion; nor will they automatically vote for Republicans because of inflation."
Keep reading. ✍️ Sign up: Read any of Axios' 16 free Local newsletters — with more coming — by subscribing through this link. | | | | | | | | 3. Charted: Ukraine's reconstruction needs |  Data: KSE; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios The cost of direct damage to civilian and military infrastructure in Ukraine since the war began totals more than $94 billion, according to an analysis of public sources by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) reviewed by Axios' Zachary Basu. Why it matters: The sheer scale of destruction is sometimes overshadowed by the media and government's intense focus on territorial gains and human atrocities. The tally is another index of the challenge Ukraine will face to rebound — whenever the shooting stops. - Entire cities and towns are virtually uninhabitable.
- U.S., European and Ukrainian officials have highlighted the need to begin assembling a "Marshall Plan for Ukraine" now, even as the war drags on into a stalemate with no clear end in sight.
- "The reconstruction of Ukraine must now become the same historical example for our time and for the future as the restoration of European countries after World War II," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a donors' conference in Warsaw last week.
By the numbers: Direct and indirect losses to Ukraine's economy are estimated to range from $564 billion to $600 billion, according to KSE economists whose analysis was supported by Ukraine's Ministry of Economy. - That figure, which is not exhaustive and will grow as the war continues, factors in GDP decline, labor shocks, the suspension of investments and other metrics.
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | A message from Facebook | | We build tools that give you control and help keep you safe | | |  | | | | Real connection can only happen on safe platforms. So we build tools to protect our communities. - Privacy Checkup, where you can manage your privacy settings and control who sees what you share.
- Industry-leading AI that detects and reacts to harmful content faster than ever.
Learn about our efforts. | | | | | | 4. Worthy of your time |  | | | House Speaker Nancy Pelosi answers questions during her weekly news conference. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images | | | | 🇨🇳 Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) will soon introduce a bill that would require all non-immigrant visa applicants, including those outside China, to declare whether they're a member of the Chinese Communist Party or another totalitarian regime, Alayna also scooped tonight. 🦠 White House COVID-19 coordinator Ashish Jha told the Associated Press the U.S. will have "a lot more vulnerability" to a flare-up of the pandemic if Congress continues to stall on passing a supplemental spending package, Andrew reports for tonight's Sneak roundup. 🏨 Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) was one of the last patrons at the Trump International Hotel in D.C. before it was sold to a group of Miami investors, dining there three times in March and once in April, according to Insider. 🇺🇸 The president marked a grim milestone — 1 million Americans lost to the coronavirus — with a statement and video today, and by lowering the flags on the White House and federal buildings to half-staff. | | | | | | | | 5. Pic du jour |  | | | Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images | | | | Jen Psaki — toting her famous tabbed binder of backup materials — takes the podium for her penultimate briefing as White House press secretary. - She was trailed by her successor, Karine Jean-Pierre, who begins after Psaki wraps up tomorrow.
- According to the National Journal squire George Condon, who served as press pooler today and quoted data from White House Transition Project director Martha Kumar, Psaki has briefed for 223 days of the 477-day Biden presidency — counting today.
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