Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Inside SCOTUS, and Trump's first 2022 loss

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

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SPLIT DECISION — Former President DONALD TRUMP goes 1-for-2 on primary day in Nebraska and West Virginia. Full results and analysis below …

Anti-scaling fencing blocks off the stairs to the Supreme Court, Tuesday, May 10, 2022, in Washington.Abortion legislation facing a Senate test vote would enshrine into federal law the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide. Senate Democrats are moving quickly to try to codify the 50-year-old ruling after a leaked draft of a U.S. Supreme Court opinion suggested the court is poised to overturn the case (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

The nine Supreme Court justices are preparing for a close-door conference on Thursday — their first meeting since POLITICO published the draft opinion overturning Roe. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

BREAKING —New reporting from inside the Supreme Court , via Josh Gerstein, Alexander Ward and Ryan, as the nine justices are set to gather Thursday for the first time since POLITICO published the draft opinion overturning Roe:

"Justice SAMUEL ALITO's sweeping and blunt draft majority opinion from February overturning Roe remains the court's only circulated draft in the pending Mississippi abortion case, POLITICO has learned, and none of the conservative justices who initially sided with Alito have to date switched their votes. No dissenting draft opinions have circulated from any justice, including the three liberals.

"That could explain why no second draft of Alito's majority opinion has been distributed, as typically the two sides react to one another's written arguments and recast their own.

"As the nine justices prepare for their scheduled, private, closed-door conference this week, they face one of the greatest crises in modern Supreme Court history, with an internal leak investigation under way, an agitated nation focused on whether the constitutional right to abortion is about to be overturned, and some justices facing angry protests at their homes.

"'This is the most serious assault on the court, perhaps from within, that the Supreme Court's ever experienced,' one person close to the court's conservatives told POLITICO Tuesday. 'It's an understatement to say they are heavily, heavily burdened by this.'"

Donald Trump speaks at a podium during a rally.

In West Virginia, Trump-backed Rep. Alex Mooney defeated Rep. David McKinley in a primary that pitted tribalism against pork. | Kenneth Ferriera/Lincoln Journal Star via AP, File

PRIMARY RESULTS — The closely watched Republican primaries in West Virginia and Nebraska ended in a win and a loss for Trump. Ally Mutnick and Zach Montellaro have the rundown of the key races

— West Virginia: In the Mountain State's second district, Trump-backed Rep. ALEX MOONEY defeated Rep. DAVID MCKINLEY in a primary that pitted tribalism against pork. McKinley broke with most House Republicans to support the bipartisan infrastructure bill that would pour money into badly needed projects for West Virginia. Mooney attacked him as a RINO, secured Trump's blessing and won the primary, 54%-36%.

Analysis: WSJ's Joshua Jamerson on how BIF played in the race NYT's Jonathan Weisman on the implications for a potential House GOP majority next yearWaPo's James Hohmann does the math on House Republicans who backed BIF

— Nebraska: In the GOP gubernatorial primary, JIM PILLEN, a regent at the University of Nebraska who had the support of the state's traditional Republican establishment, defeated CHARLES HERBSTER, Trump's candidate who faced multiple allegations of groping women. State Sen. BRETT LINDSTROM, the moderate in the race, trailed close behind in third place.

The final results: Pillen 33%, Herbster 30%, Lindstrom 26%.

Analysis from NYT's Reid Epstein: "Mr. Herbster is the first candidate endorsed by Mr. Trump to lose a Republican primary in 2022 . Many more Trump-endorsed candidates are facing stiff headwinds in coming primaries, starting with contests for governor in Idaho next week and in Georgia on May 24.

"Mr. Pillen, 66, ran a campaign predicated on the idea that Nebraska Republicans were satisfied with the administration of Gov. PETE RICKETTS , his main political benefactor and most prominent supporter, who is stepping down because of term limits. Mr. Ricketts spent millions on television advertising backing Mr. Pillen while attacking Mr. Herbster and Mr. Lindstrom." More Analysis:AP's Grant Schulte on Pillen's road to victory

The Nebraska race showed the limits of trying to turn serious allegations of misconduct into an attack on the press that rallies conservatives. Ally Mutnick and Zach Montellaro: "Trump stood by Herbster despite the revelations in mid-April, reported by the Nebraska Examiner, that a number of women, including a sitting state senator, accused Herbster of groping or inappropriately touching them.

"Herbster denied the allegations, and Ricketts and others condemned him. But instead of stepping aside, Herbster ran a TV ad comparing himself to Supreme Court Justices CLARENCE THOMAS and BRETT KAVANAUGH. Trump rallied for Herbster in the runup to the primary."

Good Wednesday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

A message from PhRMA:

ICYMI: A majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation" once they learn it could restrict access and choice and chill the innovation of new treatments and cures. The survey also shows a majority find health care coverage costs unreasonable and a top priority health care issue for policymakers to address today.

 

NEW POLLING ON ABORTION RIGHTS — Over the last week, the percentage of Americans who say they've heard "a lot" or "some" about the draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe shot to 66% — up 7 points since the news broke. And judging from the results of a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, they're not wild about what they're hearing.

  • On overturning Roe: Fifty-three percent of voters say Roe should not be overturned, up three percentage points since last week. Twenty-eight percent say Roe should be overturned. 
  • Among Republican voters, just 48% support overturning Roe. That's down three points from last week.
  • On the midterms: Fifty-eight percent of voters said it is important for them to vote for a candidate in the midterms who supports abortion access. That includes 82% of Democratic voters, 57% of independents and more than 1 in 3 Republicans (35%).

As for what might happen with Roe gone, across the board, voters overwhelmingly oppose criminal penalties for women and doctors who obtain or perform abortions.

  • On the prospect of prison for women: Seventy-three percent oppose prison time for women to receive abortions. That includes 84% of Democratic voters, 76% of independents and 60% of Republicans.
  • On the prospect of fines for doctors: Eighty percent of Democrats and 64% of independents oppose fines for doctors who perform abortions. Among Republicans, 50% support fining doctors, while 39% oppose it. Toplines Crosstabs

HEADS UP — April's Consumer Price Index, a key inflation indicator, will be released at 8:30 a.m. here.

 

A message from PhRMA:

ICYMI: Majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation" once they learn it could restrict access and choice and chill the innovation of new treatments and cures.

 

BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY (all times Eastern):

— 10 a.m.: The president will depart the White House en route to Chicago, where he is scheduled to arrive at 12:15 p.m.

— 1:45 p.m.: Biden will visit a family farm in Kankakee, Illinois, to discuss food supply and prices and will deliver remarks at 2:15 p.m.

— 5 p.m.: Biden will address the 40th International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) International Convention back in Chicago.

— 5:50 p.m.: Biden will attend a DNC fundraiser.

— 7:40 p.m.: The president will depart Chicago to return to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 9:55 p.m.

Deputy principal press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Chicago.

The SENATE is in. Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 2 p.m. USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER will testify before the Foreign Relations Committee at 2:30 p.m.

The HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. Testifying before Appropriations subcommittees today: ANTHONY FAUCI at 10 a.m., USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER at 10 a.m., HUD Secretary MARCIA FUDGE at 10 a.m., Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY at 10:30 a.m., and CBP Commissioner CHRIS MAGNUS at 2 p.m.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 10: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi speaks outside the White House after meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden on May 10, 2022 in Washington, DC. Members of the Congressional delegation that recently visited Ukraine met with President Biden in the Situation Room on Tuesday afternoon. Also pictured (L-R) are Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA) and Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO). (Photo by Drew   Angerer/Getty Images)

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi speaks outside the White House after meeting with President Joe Biden on Tuesday in Washington, DC. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

IN PENNSYLVANIA — Looking ahead to next week's major primary, our politics team has a pair of important stories on the Pennsylvania races:

1. Top state GOP officials are banding together in a last-ditch effort to stop state Sen. DOUG MASTRIANO from nabbing the gubernatorial nomination, Holly Otterbein and Zach Montellaro report . "With only days to go before the May 17 primary, GOP gubernatorial campaigns and leading state and county officials have been in discussions about uniting behind a single candidate to avoid a scenario in which Mastriano wins the crowded race by taking advantage of a splintered vote. If that doesn't work, another option is persuading the candidates in single-digits in the polls to drop out."

2. Senate Republicans are "dismissing attacks on MEHMET OZ's Turkish citizenship by his GOP rivals," Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report. "In interviews, Republicans gave Oz what amounts to a leg up in his nasty primary by saying that they have no concerns about his loyalty and no problems with him receiving classified briefings should he become a U.S. senator."

MEANWHILE, ON THE DEM SIDE OF THINGS… "In an Uphill Year, Democrats of All Stripes Worry About Electability," Katie Glueck for the NYT. "On Monday night, several left-leaning congressional candidates joined an emergency organizing call with activists reeling from a draft Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. A somber Senator ELIZABETH WARREN of Massachusetts, opening the discussion, acknowledged that Democrats held control in Washington but were nonetheless "in an uphill battle for change."

The moment, she said, demanded leaders 'who know how to get in the fight and who know how to win.'"

The stepback: "Tensions over how to execute on both of those ambitions — pushing effectively for change, while winning elections — are now animating Democratic primaries from Pennsylvania to Texas to Oregon, as Democrats barrel into an intense new season of intraparty battles. For the first months of 2022, Republican primaries have dominated the political landscape, emerging as key measures of former President Donald J. Trump's sway over his party's base. But the coming weeks will also offer a window into the mood of Democratic voters who are alarmed by threats to abortion rights, frustrated by gridlock in Washington and deeply worried about a challenging midterm campaign environment."

SCOTT HITS BIDEN IN NEW TV AD — NRSC Chairman RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) has a blossoming rivalry with the president, and seems to be loving every minute of it. Following several days of shots from Biden in which he knocked Scott's proposed GOP agenda, Scott on Tuesday called on Biden to resign and challenged him to a debate over inflation. Now, he's dishing out six-figures on a new nationwide cable TV ad touting Biden's disses. See the ad, which goes live Friday

FIRST PERSON — The Atlantic's David Frum took note of our recent report on the J.D. VANCE self-oppo book, and wrote a piece about Vance's time writing for Frum. He includes a new account of a gathering that Vance hosted for Never Trumpers five years ago:

"About a week after the inauguration, in 2017, Vance invited me and a dozen other anti-Trump conservatives to a quiet meeting in a downtown Washington, D.C., conference room to discuss ways forward from the Trump predicament. That meeting was off the record, but Vance subsequently emailed participants to alert us that he himself had spoken to a reporter about it.

"Among the topics we considered: Could any good come from the Trump administration? How outspoken should we be in opposition? The meeting did not reach conclusions, but it did not need to. The unspoken but widely understood agenda looked further into the future: We were present at the creation of a 'Vance for President' campaign that might go into operation sometime in the late 2020s or early 2030s."

KNIVES OUT FOR CAWTHORN — WaPo's Isaac Arnsdorf goes deep on Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN's "falling-out with top Republicans in North Carolina and Washington," opening with this anecdote, which provides a window into how the feud began: "Last November, Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) texted his state's junior senator, THOM TILLIS, about a tweet from the senator's wife. Cawthorn had just announced that he was planning to switch districts, and SUSAN TILLIS took to Twitter to criticize the move.

"'Why is your wife attacking me on Twitter?' the House freshman demanded in his text exchange obtained by The Washington Post. The senator replied that he hadn't seen his wife's tweet, but suggested Cawthorn didn't need to look far for a possible reason. 'Just spit ballin here,' Tillis wrote, 'but maybe because you've attacked her husband?'"

CASH DASH — Puck's Theodore Schleifer reports on the shiniest new star in GOP fundraising: LARRY ELLISON. "These days, Ellison's commitments to GOP causes are trending red hot. Last week, he was revealed as the single biggest outside backer of ELON MUSK'S officially apolitical, but pointedly conservative-friendly, takeover of Twitter. Ellison, once a registered Democrat, has also donated a staggering $25 million to Republican senator and potential presidential hopeful TIM SCOTT, placing him alongside PETER THIEL in the upper echelon of conservative Silicon Valley mega-donors."

 

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ICYMI: Majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation".

 

CONGRESS

HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate will vote on whether to consider a bill codifying abortion rights, a vote that will fail. Related reads: "Here's How Democrats in Congress Are Trying to Protect Abortion Rights," the NYT. "Politiycal reality: Congress can't save — or end — abortion,"the AP.

HOUSE PASSES NEW UKRAINE FUNDING — Late Tuesday night, the House passed a roughly $40 billion package of aid for Ukraine. The WSJ has the latest here.

WHAT DID GARCETTI KNOW? — Los Angeles Mayor ERIC GARCETTI "likely knew about a top aide's alleged sexual misconduct, according to a new report from Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY's office that could undermine Garcetti's quest to be ambassador to India," Jeremy White reports.

HEADS UP — Rep. KEVIN HERN (R-Okla.) told Breitbart on Tuesday that he is running for chair of the Republican Study Committee. In a video announcement, Hern vowed that "no one will work harder to restore the conservative, America First agenda." Watch the video

TRUMP CARDS

LATEST MARK ESPER BOOK HEADLINE — Which posted at 5 a.m., courtesy of WaPo's Dan Lamothe: "Trump wanted to court-martial prominent retired officers, book says"From the story: "Trump, Esper recounts in 'A Sacred Oath,' had developed a disdain for STANLEY MCCHRYSTAL and WILLIAM H. MCRAVEN, popular and influential leaders who, in retirement, criticized the president. When Trump informed Esper and Gen. MARK A. MILLEY, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, of his wish to see McChrystal and McRaven court-martialed, the two Pentagon leaders "jumped to their defense," Esper writes, arguing that both completed distinguished military careers and that taking such action would be "extreme and unwarranted."

"Doing this 'will backfire on you, Mr. President,' we said," Esper writes. "The discussion went back and forth a little while longer in the Oval Office, with Milley finally figuring out a way to get the president to back down by promising that he would personally call the officers and ask them to dial it back."

THE ECONOMY

FED FILES — In a 51-50 vote, the Senate approved LISA COOK's appointment to the Federal Reserve board, making her the "first Black woman ever to get a vote on U.S. interest rate policy," Victoria Guida reports.

INTERESTING READ — "How the Inflation Rate Is Measured: 477 Government Workers at Grocery Stores," by WSJ's Rachel Wolfe

WAR IN UKRAINE

— "Russia's nearly three-month-old invasion of neighboring Ukraine has been punctuated by flawed planning, poor intelligence, barbarity and wanton destruction. But obscured in the daily fighting is the geographic reality that Russia has made gains on the ground," NYT's Michael Schwirtz, Marc Santora and Michael Levenson report.

WATCH: "How will the White House define 'victory' in Ukraine | 6 things to know"

How will The White House define 'victory' in Ukraine | 6 things to know

"Leader of Pussy Riot Band Escapes Russia, With Help From Friends," by NYT's Valerie Hopkins and Misha Friedman

 

DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Elon Musk said he would reinstate Donald Trump's Twitter account: "I do think it was not correct to ban Donald Trump. I think that was a mistake. It alienated a large part of the country and did not ultimately result in Donald Trump not having a voice." Agreeing with Musk: Jack Dorsey and the ACLU's executive director, Anthony Romero.

Ron DeSantis is heading to South Carolina today for a "fundraiser hosted by a collection of top-level" donors to Donald Trump, Matt Dixon reports.

Norm Eisen has a new book out about, yep, you guessed it, Donald Trump. A preview of the book, which is titled " Overcoming Trumpery," can be read at CNN.

Paris Hilton was on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, and posed for photos while waiting in line for coffee. She also met with Chuck Grassley.

The Dispatch announced that it is leaving Substack.

David Gergen said last night on CNN that Joe Biden shouldn't run for reelection, because "if your judgment is not keen, you shouldn't be there."

SPOTTED at the Conservative Foreign Policy Study Group reception hosted by the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition with President and CEO Liz Schrayer, featuring former national security adviser Robert O'Brien and former State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert: Sean Cairncross, Kelley Curie, Bonnie Glick, Manisha Singh, Everett Eissenstat, Paul Teller, Jim Richardson, Stewart Barber Young, Norm Coleman, Peter Roskam and Michelle Bekkering.

SPOTTED at a screening of "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" co-hosted by Disney and the Motion Picture Association in honor of the House Chiefs of Staff Association: Susan Fox, Patrick Kilcur, Karyn Temple, Mitchell Rivard, Storm Horncastle, Nancy Peele, Nishith Pandya, Chris Crawford, Tara Rountree, John Byers, Mark Henson and Michelle Reinshuttle.

TRANSITIONS — Allie Owen is now acting development director of Generator Collective. She currently is finance director for Christian Wise Smith's Georgia A.G. campaign and Pennsylvania state Rep. Brian Sims' lieutenant governor campaign. … Garima Verma is now digital director for Stacey Abrams' Georgia gubernatorial campaign. She most recently was digital partnerships and content director for a nonprofit and is also a Biden White House alum.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Kara Voght, politics reporter at Rolling Stone, and Ben Cushing, campaign manager of the Sierra Club's Fossil-Free Finance campaign, got married Saturday at Meridian House. The bride, true to form, walked down the aisle to Taylor Swift. The day was cold, rainy and windswept. But as the song says: "All's well that ends well to end up with you." Pics

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Cassie Scher, VP at Rational 360, and Brent Scher, executive editor at the Washington Free Beacon, last Tuesday welcomed Clark Laramie, who joins big brother Boone. Pic Another pic

— Katie Zirkelbach, president of Zirkelbach Strategies, and Robby Zirkelbach, global head of issues and advocacy at ExxonMobil, on Tuesday welcomed Theodore Roman Zirkelbach, who came in at 5 lbs, 1oz and 18.5 inches. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justin Vail of the Domestic Policy Council … Karen SkeltonDavid Castagnetti … WSJ's Daniel Nasaw … GMMB's Danny JesterSarah SchmidtSam MulopulosBethany LittleAngie Alfonso-Royals … RNC's José CunninghamMatt VanHyfte of the House Small Business Committee Republicans … Logan Gibson of Booz Allen Hamilton … Patrick Kane of the British Embassy … Microsoft's Fred Humphries … retired Gen. John Kelly … former Reps. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) and David Young (R-Iowa) … Brian J. WalshAlex DeaseMichael Pregent … POLITICO's Allison Davis and Haley SiddallMolly Drenkard … State Department's Chris LandbergAlden SchacherAndrew BinnsAlex Wagner of the Aerospace Industries Association … George HadijskiCami Connor Shauna Daly … NBC's Jo Ling Kent Vince Stewart of Ankura Consulting … Olivia Waxman

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