| | | | | | | Presented By Google | | | | Axios AM | | By Mike Allen · May 11, 2022 | | Happy Wednesday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,155 words ... 4½ mins. Edited by Zachary Basu. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Another boom winds down |  Data: New York Fed. Chart: Axios Visuals The surge in mortgage rates has snuffed out last year's massive refinancing boom. - Why it matters: The Fed's effort to lift interest rates — which began as a verbal campaign last fall, and became an actual increase last week — is already starting to bite, Matt Phillips writes for Axios Markets.
The New York Fed's quarterly report on consumer debt and credit, out yesterday, showed a sharp drop in mortgage refinancing activity. - Originations of refi loans fell 15%, to $424 billion, in the first quarter.
- Refi loan originations are down 40% from the first quarter of 2021.
Zoom out: The boom peaked in Q2 of last year, when conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovered around 3%. As rates have risen, they've left fewer people with an incentive to refinance. (Today they're around 5.25%.) - The New York Fed synthesizes: "Mortgage refinances surged in the last two years, as many homeowners were able to take advantage of historically low interest rates. Purchase originations, mortgages associated with the new purchase of a property, increased at a steady pace. The beginning of 2022 shows a modest decline in purchase originations and a relatively sharp drop in refinances."
How it works: Refinancing typically lowers your monthly payment, giving you spending money that can boost the economy. The bottom line: The Fed is tapping the brakes. The slowdown is coming. |     | | | | | | 2. Future of big events: Outside |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | Smaller indoor events are more likely to spread COVID than much bigger, outdoor ones, Axios Austin's Asher Price writes from a new report by University of Texas researchers. - Why it matters: With COVID deaths and hospitalizations way down, Americans are convening once more, indoors and out.
The findings: Researchers put together two case studies — a business conference with 3,000 attendees and an outdoor festival with 50,000 attendees. - Outdoor festivals, although larger, had a lower per-person impact on total infections over the following four weeks.
- "Although the hypothetical outdoor festival is over ten times the size of the hypothetical business conference," the researchers write, "we estimate that it will produce only double the number of infections."
Between the lines: Pre-event testing requirements were more effective at preventing attendees from showing up infected than vaccine mandates. | | | | | | | | 3. 🗳️ Primary night: Trump bats .500 | | Jim Pillen celebrates at the Embassy Suites in Lincoln, Neb., last night. Photo: Kenneth Ferriera/Lincoln Journal Star via AP In Nebraska, Republicans nominated the establishment's Jim Pillen for governor over former President Trump's candidate — Charles Herbster, who faced groping allegations late in the campaign (33% to 30%). - Pillen, a hog farm owner and veterinarian who is a member of the University of Nebraska board of regents, was backed by many top GOP leaders in the Cornhusker State, AP reports.
- Pillen will be the favorite in November against state Sen. Carol Blood. Nebraska hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1994. Go deeper.
In an early victory for a Trump-endorsed candidate at the start of midterm season, Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) beat fellow incumbent Rep. David McKinley in West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District primary. - Mooney said in his victory speech: "Donald Trump loves West Virginia, and West Virginia loves Donald Trump." Keep reading.
🔮 What's next: Pennsylvania's epic primary is next week. | | | | | | | | A message from Google | | Google is countering online threats in Eastern Europe | | |  | | | | Google's Threat Analysis Group (TAG) is a team that investigates threat actors and combats cyber crime to help keep everyone safe online, including high-risk users, by increasing protections based on attacker techniques and through regular updates to the security community. Learn more. | | | | | | 4. 📷 1,000 words |  | | | Photo/Eric Gay/AP | | | | Above: Baby-formula shelves sit empty in San Antonio. - The FDA yesterday said it's "doing everything in our power" to improve supply: "The agency continues to advise against making infant formulas at home."
What's happening: The shortage has intensified due to supply chain issues and a recall of Abbott products, including Similac, Axios' Herb Scribner reports. | | | | | | | | 5. Al Jazeera reporter killed in West Bank | | Shireen Abu Akleh. Photo: Al Jazeera via AP A Palestinian-American journalist for Al Jazeera was killed this morning while covering an Israeli military raid in the occupied West Bank, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. - Palestinian and Israeli officials gave conflicting accounts. Veteran reporter Shireen Abu Akleh, 51, was wearing a clearly marked press vest when she was shot dead in the northern city of Jenin.
Al Jazeera accused Israeli forces of "deliberately targeting and killing" Abu Akleh. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said it "appears likely that armed Palestinians — who were firing indiscriminately at the time — were responsible for the unfortunate death of the journalist." - U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides confirmed that Abu Akleh was a U.S. citizen, and called for a "thorough" investigation.
Go deeper. | | | | | | | | 6. 🎢 A switch for tech |  Data: Yahoo Finance. Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios The biggest tech behemoths, which created untold wealth, are now dragging down the stock market, the WashPost notes: - Apple went from being worth $3 trillion in January to $2.5 trillion Monday.
- Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla and Alphabet have each lost 20%+ of their value this year. Netflix has lost 70%. Facebook is down 40% this year.
You see it in the graphic above (past seven trading days, going back two Mondays): The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down more than the broader market. | | | | | | | | 7. Apple discontinues iPod |  | | | A 2015 iPod Touch. Photo: Neil Godwin/T3 Magazine/Future via Getty Images | | | | Apple is discontinuing the iPod, 20 years after the device debuted, Axios' Erin Doherty writes. - Why it matters: The iPod was introduced in October 2001 — and became a cultural staple that went on to revolutionize portable music.
💭 Our thought bubble, from Axios' Ina Fried: The iPod became less popular when smartphones went mainstream. - But the technology was an on-ramp to iOS for kids too young to get an iPhone.
The iPod Touch, Apple's last version of the portable music player (updated 2019), will be available while supplies last. | | | | | | | | 8. 🐐 Brady to make more in booth than on field |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | Tom Brady's 10-year deal with Fox Sports, where he'll become lead analyst "immediately following his playing career," is worth $375 million, the N.Y. Post reports. - Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch said: "Tom will not only call our biggest NFL games with Kevin Burkhardt, but will also serve as an ambassador for us, particularly with respect to client and promotional initiatives."
Why it matters: Big names lure viewers at a time more and more are cutting the cord, Axios' Sara Fischer, Tim Baysinger and Jeff Tracy write. Context: Brady has made just over $300 million in NFL salary during his 22-year career, according to ESPN. - Earlier this year, ESPN snagged Fox's top two NFL announcers — Troy Aikman and Joe Buck — for a reported $33 million per year combined to host "Monday Night Football."
- Add in what ESPN pays Eli and Peyton Manning to host an alternative broadcast of "Monday Night Football" on ESPN2 — and the network is shelling out more than $50 million for big-name announcers on Monday nights, according to the N.Y. Post.
Zoom out: Next year, NFL rights will collectively cost TV networks around $10 billion per year. Between the lines: Networks have long hired ex-football players as announcers. But those contracts have gotten much bigger as the competition for NFL rights has intensified. - CBS Sports renewed Tony Romo's contract for a then record-breaking deal of $170 million over 10 years in 2020, kicking off the bull market for booth talent.
⛳ Go deeper: "ManningCast" comes to golf as PGA gets alternate telecast | | | | | | | | A message from Google | | Protecting websites and organizations from digital attacks | | |  | | | | Project Shield protects news and human rights organizations, government entities, and more from Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. These digital attacks are used by bad actors and cyber criminals to censor information by taking websites offline. Learn more. | | | | 📬 Invite your friends to sign up here to get their daily essentials — Axios AM, PM and Finish Line. |  | It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | |
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