WHAT COLOR IS YOUR PANDEMIC? President Joe Biden is wary to declare a new chapter in the coronavirus pandemic during his State of the Union speech tonight, burned by a premature declaration of "independence" last July, weeks before the Delta variant triggered hospitalization surges and breakthrough cases, people familiar with the speech planning told Nightly. Some areas of the country, primarily in the South and Midwest, are still struggling with low vaccination rates, fueling the possibility of new variants or surges that send more people to the hospital. Add it all up? The state of the pandemic is pretty confusing for most Americans. There are virtually two Americas right now, a senior administration official told me last week on the eve of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data overhaul. One America: largely vaccinated communities where even if Omicron is spreading, transmission is declining from peak rates, and hospitalizations remain low. The other America remains in the red as communities or even entire states (West Virginia) grapple with low vaccination rates, persistent hospitalizations and a scarcity of beds to treat people. A recent CDC reassessment of coronavirus risk saw much of the country moved into yellow and green low- and medium-transition zones overnight, highlighting the lower-risk phase of the pandemic where many counties find themselves. "We are in a phase where the virus no longer disrupts our life. It no longer makes us afraid every day … We're in a state of being able to get back to normal," the senior official said. "The caveat will always be: We must be prepared that we may get another variant. The public health message has to be reiterated, even though the country may be tired of hearing it." That leaves the average person in a quandary, even if they are in a "green" low transmission zone, calculating their risk and comfort level on a personal basis. And many people are understandably conflicted about when and where to don masks. A new Kaiser Family Foundation survey finds many Americans are ready to return to normal but remain worried about rolling back mask mandates and other restrictions. Those who are concerned cite risks of Covid resurgence and the persistent threat for immunocompromised and chronically ill people, who could still have severe coronavirus infections. But more than 60 percent of respondents also worry what continued restrictions will do to childrens' mental health and local businesses' viability. "There are people who will always be safer in certain environments wearing a mask — people who are very high risk for severe illness, for example," said Erica Johnson, a Johns Hopkins doctor who chairs the Infectious Disease Board of the American Board of Internal Medicine. "I think it is imperative that we all do not make judgments about what people's individual choices are." That said, many people with chronic illnesses and immunocompromised conditions are unhappy with CDC's pivot, arguing that choices aren't personal when they could put people at risk. "Even as some jurisdictions lift masking requirements, we must grapple with the fact that millions of people in the U.S. are immunocompromised, more susceptible to severe Covid outcomes, or still too young to be eligible for the vaccine," American Medical Association President Gerald Harmon said in a statement. "In light of those facts, I personally will continue to wear a mask in most indoor public settings, and I urge all Americans to consider doing the same," especially in pharmacies, grocery stores and other frequented public places, he said. That warning lands as the White House and the Capitol roll back masking requirements. Dozens if not hundreds of lawmakers could attend Biden's speech unmasked tonight. It's possible that the people ripping off their masks now will be advised to fish them out again during a new surge. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky tried to paint that as an easy option in a call with reporters last week: "We want to give people a break from things like mask-wearing when our levels are low, and then have the ability to reach for them again should things get worse in the future." But the reality could be far more complicated. Many Republicans still complain about the Biden administration's restoration of mask guidance last summer as the Delta variant reared its head. Biden officials and people familiar with the discussions told POLITICO's Adam Cancryn and me last week that they were resistant to ever letting the president declare the pandemic "over." Instead, said one official, the local and state patchwork of realities will continue — and evolve. No real finish line is in sight, particularly if the virus becomes a regular, or endemic, part of our lives. That robs Biden of a "We did it!" moment, more than a year after he assumed office promising to end the pandemic. But it doesn't mean things aren't looking up. We live in a new world of safe and accessible coronavirus vaccines and treatments. Messenger RNA vaccines can be altered if new variants evade the original regimens. The administration is expected to unveil a roadmap for returning to normal on Wednesday. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at sowermohle@politico.com, or on Twitter at @owermohle.
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