Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Biden’s SOTU blues

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING OVERNIGHT IN UKRAINE — WSJ: "Russian forces struck the central square of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv early Tuesday, as Moscow, frustrated in its plans for a quick victory, switched to a new strategy of pummeling civilian areas in an attempt to demoralize Ukrainian resistance. … Air-raid sirens and the thud of explosions sounded all morning in Kyiv." Video of the Kharkiv strike here.

More from Ukraine below, but first …

WHAT AWAITS POTUS TONIGHT — At 9 p.m., President JOE BIDEN will deliver the type of State of the Union address he never wanted to give. One that comes as Americans continue to grapple not only with soaring prices, but also with the world order as we know it teetering on the edge.

Indeed, as the Russian military closes in on Kyiv, Biden will be hard-pressed to argue that the state of the union is anything but in peril.

Biden and his advisers had hoped to use this moment to reboot his stalled domestic agenda. Instead, the situation in Ukraine has forced the West Wing to rewrite significant partitions of his speech.

Biden is expected to use his address to respond to criticism that he didn't act quickly enough to stop Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. He'll emphasize his work to build an international coalition to counter Russia, as well as imposing crippling sanctions.

It won't all be a lesson in international relations, however. Administration officials say Biden will spotlight improvements in the economy while sympathizing with the plight of struggling Americans. He'll highlight GDP growth and historic low unemployment — but also stress that more must be done to bring costs down (more on this in a minute).

It's a tricky balancing act, as White House officials have come to realize. The president will want to tout achievements from the past year, but also not give a sense that he's out of touch with voters. As WaPo reported Monday, administration officials have been passing around a guest essay by former Obama adviser DAVID AXELROD pushing for Biden to adopt humble tones acknowledging an ongoing "national trauma." But not all White House aides agree with the advice.

That's not the only challenge awaiting Biden tonight. Here are three more dynamics to watch:

1. ALMOST GIDDY REPUBLICANS — The GOP is ready to pan Biden's address no matter what he says. And with the president's approval numbers as poor as they are right now, they'll have a receptive audience. Ahead of the address, RNC Chair RONNA MCDANIEL argued on a call with reporters that inflation is costing average families about $3,500 last year.

The GOP will respond with stats like that while pointing to rising violent crime, disillusionment with the pandemic and arguments suggesting the president is "weak" on foreign policy.

In the Republican response, Iowa Gov. KIM REYNOLDS, who has been floated as a possible 2024 running mate for DONALD TRUMP, is expected to drill down on another Achilles' heel for Democrats: the toll that the pandemic is exacting on schoolkids. Reynolds is expected to talk about how she kept schools open during the pandemic, in contrast with the left. The Gazette has more on her back story here

2. A REMINDER OF UNFINISHED BUSINESS — While Democratic leaders have largely moved on from the now-dead Build Back Better plan, many lawmakers on Capitol Hill have not. This morning, the oft-bickering heads of the House's major Democratic caucuses will release a rare joint statement calling on Congress to reboot talks to pass at least some version of BBB — though they won't call it that anymore.

"[R]eal economic challenges remain for families," the statement reads. "Congress must act quickly to address these challenges, especially as we continue to face systemic racism's disparities and inequities, as well as rising prices squeezing working people, and the climate crisis that is escalating every day. It's not too late to meet this moment." Read the full letter here

3. ONGOING DEMOCRATIC INFIGHTING — In perhaps a first, we'll see Biden's critics within his own party respond to his SOTU when Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.), a progressive member of the so-called Squad, speaks on behalf of the Working Families Party. The news of her retort didn't sit well with centrists like Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), who told Axios that Tlaib's response was like "keying your own car and slashing your own tires."

Gottheimer, we're told, is going to be speaking tonight alongside Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.), his bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus co-chair, at an event hosted by No Labels. Their hope: to drown out the partisans sniping over Biden's speech and offer a unified message.

Meanwhile, as climate activists push Biden to go hard on climate change, Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) on Monday night called on the Biden administration to increase domestic energy production to ease reliance on Russian oil. The move, which has become a central talking point for Republicans in recent days, will put Biden in a tight spot between environmentalists and people concerned about exorbitant prices at the pump.

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WHAT ELSE BIDEN WILL SAY — Watch for the president to reframe BBB tonight into a four-point economic plan that he'll ask lawmakers to work on immediately. As Trevor Hunnicutt reports for Reuters , "many of the policies he promotes will seem familiar — raising Pell grants for education, raising the federal minimum wage to $15 and creating a national paid family medical leave program — but the messaging is different."

NYT'S Michael Shear reports that the plans include a call "to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on child care, elder care and prescription drugs." He "will argue that passage of the legislation will effectively counter the inflation that is affecting people's everyday budgets." More on this change in direction from CNN

The president will also call on Congress to pass legislation to help American companies compete with China, which is already in the works in both chambers. And he'll unveil new plans to address supply-chain issues driving up costs.

FROM THE CHIEF'S MOUTH — NBC's Lester Holt will interview White House chief of staff RON KLAIN in a conversation airing on "NBC Nightly News" at 6:30 p.m.

 

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Happy Fat Tuesday — though we at Playbook don't need the excuse to be gluttons. Send us good color or insights from the SOTU tonight: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

BIDEN'S TUESDAY:

— 9:50 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 9 p.m.: Biden will deliver the State of the Union address.

THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. THE SENATE is in.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER:  The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and VP Kamala Harris are pictured fist-bumping. | Getty Images

Vice President Kamala Harris greets Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin with a fist bump at a Black History Month celebration event in the East Room of the White House on Monday, Feb. 28. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

WAR IN UKRAINE

DAY SIX — What you need to know:

— The human toll in Ukraine is mounting. The U.N. reported that more than 500,000 refugees have streamed out of Ukraine, mostly to Poland and Moldova. The Biden administration is scrambling to secure funds to provide assistance.

Civilian casualties in the conflict are rising as Russia, unable to penetrate Ukraine's largest cities for several days, resorts to more indiscriminate shelling.

Biden officials told House members in a classified briefing Monday that "1,500 civilian and military casualties have occurred since the invasion began," WaPo reports.

U.S. officials said that Kyiv, where a 40-mile long convoy of Russian troops and military hardware was approaching the city Tuesday morning, "would likely fall within one to four days of a full-scale Russian assault," CNN reports. However, British defense intelligence said early Tuesday, "The Russian advance on Kyiv has made little progress over the past 24 hours probably as a result of continuing logistical difficulties" and that "Russia has failed to gain control of the airspace over Ukraine."

Amnesty International accused Russia of using cluster munitions in an attack on a preschool where civilians were sheltering Friday. A residential area of Kharkiv, home to 1.4 million people, was shelled Monday, killing civilians, including children. An expert at Human Rights Watch told the NYT he was "convinced" that cluster bombs were used.

"I believe Russia is trying to put pressure [on Ukraine] with this simple method." — Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY

— The sanctions against Russia are working. The ruble "was trading at 93.4 per dollar … having recovered nearly all of Monday's losses helped by an emergency rate hike by Russia's central bank after the currency collapsed to a record low of 120 per dollar. Still, the rouble was down almost 30% from its best levels this year," Reuters reports . Our POLITICO Europe colleague Hannah Brenton reports that the "Moscow Stock Exchange will remain closed today. The Central Bank of Russia said it will not resume trading in shares or derivatives."

During a meeting with top officials to discuss the sanctions, Putin continued to escalate his rhetoric. "For the second day in a row, the Kremlin raised the specter of nuclear war," the AP reports , "announcing that its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines and long-range bombers had all been put on high alert, following President Vladimir Putin's orders over the weekend."

"Empire of lies." — Putin referring (again) to Western countries that implemented the sanctions

— A trickle of Russian elites are breaking with Putin. Two Russian billionaires, MIKHAIL FRIDMAN and OLEG DERIPASKA, spoke out against the war in Ukraine on Monday, calling for an end to the conflict.

Three members of the Russian parliament also criticized Putin's invasion Monday, per the NYT.

"I also condemn the leadership of Russia … Under the auspices of recognizing the DPR and LPR, we hid plans to unleash a full-scale war with our closest neighbor." —  VYACHESLAV MARKHAEV, member of the Russian parliament. 

— Peace talks are failing. Russian-Ukrainian talks at the Belarusian border yielded no breakthroughs. Meanwhile, both the U.N. General Assembly and Security Council met in emergency sessions late into the night. There was a parade of denunciations of the Russian invasion from diplomats, but no prospect for meaningful action. (Russia has veto power in the Security Council, and General Assembly resolutions are non-binding.)

"Have no illusions. If Ukraine does not survive, we cannot be surprised if democracy fails next." — Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.N. SERGIY KYSLYTSYA

— The backlash against Russia is continuing. Switzerland reversed course and endorsed the European Union's first round of sanctions and also froze Russian assets. (The Swiss are still studying the EU's more aggressive round of sanctions announced over the weekend.)

In Finland, political leaders are meeting today to discuss the country's response to Russian aggression, including the possibility of joining NATO, a once enormously unpopular policy that now enjoys majority support, according to a recent poll.

"It is very understandable that many Finns have changed or are changing their minds after Russia started waging war on Ukraine." — Finnish PM SANNA MARIN

— The Russia divestment campaign is growing. Numerous states moved to divest their assets from Russia and sanction the country. Indiana is trying to ban Russian entities from buying property in the state. New York will no longer do business with Russia. Some lawmakers in Arkansas want to boycott Russian goods. Similar efforts, per CBS, are sweeping through state capitals in California, Colorado, Connecticut, New Jersey, Virginia and Washington. Other states are banning Russian booze.

"I don't know about y'all, but I don't want one penny of Georgians' money going to subsidize Vladimir Putin!" — Georgia state House Speaker DAVID RALSTON (R)

 

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CONGRESS

ABORTION RIGHTS BILL FALLS FLAT— As the Supreme Court gets closer to an expected decision to either eliminate or limit abortion rights established by Roe v. Wade, the Senate failed to advance the Women's Health Protection Act with a vote of 46-48. The law would have codified abortion rights in federal law. Manchin joined Republicans to block the measure, Alice Miranda Ollstein reports.

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST — Rep. FRED KELLER (R-Pa.) announced Monday that he is not seeking reelection after a new map put him at odds with a fellow Republican congressman, AP reports.

PARTY OF TWO — Republicans are increasingly pushing Reps. PAUL GOSAR (Ariz.) and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (Ga.) onto an island after their appearances at a white nationalist conference this weekend, our Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers report.

"When asked if he plans to take action against Gosar and Greene, [House Minority Leader KEVIN] MCCARTHY said on Monday evening he would 'have a discussion' with the duo. McCarthy described far-fright fringe organizer NICK FUENTES's language as 'appalling' and said the 'language that he uses about antisemitism and the chanting for Putin is unacceptable.'"

TEXAS TWO-STEP

MIDTERM KICKOFF — Today is the official start to the midterm elections as dozens of primary elections take place. Our Stephanie Murray takes a look at the six most interesting races to keep your eyes on, especially on the left, where this will be the first real test of progressive strength.

TEXAS PRIMARY WATCH — And Zach Montellaro breaks down the five things POLITICO is watching during Texas' primaries Tuesday night.

TRUMP CARDS

AS ANTICIPATED — Trump is appealing a judgment requiring him, IVANKA TRUMP and DONALD TRUMP JR. to testify in New York state's civil investigation into his family's business practice. A judge had set a March 10 deadline for the trio to sit for depositions, AP's Michael Sisak reports.

MEDIAWATCH

IT'S … LICHT — The Hollywood Reporter's Alex Weprin profilesCHRIS LICHT, the newly tapped head of CNN, speaking with some of media's heaviest hitters: MSNBC's JOE SCARBOROUGH and CBS' GAYLE KING, who describe him as a "tough middle linebacker" and someone who "has the intelligence, he has the cojones, he has the wit, to take it all on," respectively.

"Inside CNN, the hiring of Licht is already generating text chains about what it means for the future of the venerable news outlet, both on-air and in streaming, with the CNN+ streaming service set to launch in coming weeks," Weprin writes.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Volodymyr Zelenskyy once voiced the Ukrainian version of both movies about Paddington Bear.

CNN's Matthew Chance was doing a live hit in Ukraine when he realized he was kneeling near a grenade — then backed away like it was no biggie.

Chris Christie slammed Donald Trump (without naming him) over 45's post-invasion praise of Vladimir Putin : "How can anyone with any understanding of the world call Putin's decision to invade Ukraine 'genius' and 'very savvy' as we watch him unite the rest of the world against Russia in nearly an instant?" the ex-NJ gov tweeted.

Wanna know what Trump told Bill Barr the "secret of a really good tweet" is? "Just the right amount of crazy." ( h/t Josh Dawsey).

Jill Biden wore a mask with a sunflower on it to show solidarity with Ukraine.

SPOTTED: Bill Barr having lunch at the Palm on Monday.

BOOK CLUB — Frank Bruni's new book, "The Beauty of Dusk: On Vision Lost and Found" ($28), comes out today. He'll have events for the book with Maureen Dowd in New York City on Wednesday and with John King in Washington on Friday. Read this glowing NYT review by Min Jin Lee.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — James Nash is joining Rokk Solutions as an SVP. He most recently was press secretary for the National Governors Association and is a former journalist.

Joe Kennedy III's Groundwork Project is announcing its slate of leaders and new hires: Emily Kaufman as executive director, Julia Hoffman as senior adviser, Tracey Lewis as national organizing adviser, Charles Taylor as Southern organizing adviser, Anthony Davis as regional organizing adviser, Matt Kearney as Massachusetts organizing director, and Aspen Christian as digital director.

The C. Boyden Gray Center for Study of the Administrative State will announce three distinguished practitioners in residence, all big names in conservative circles: Paul Clement, Steven Engel and Don McGahn.

TRANSITIONS — Bennett Resnik is now SVP in Venn Strategies' critical infrastructure practice. He previously was counsel and director of government relations at Cardinal Infrastructure. … Caleb Gibson is joining West Wing Writers as a senior director. He previously was director of executive comms at CVS Health and is a Sheldon Whitehouse alum. … Jamie Geller is joining Purple Strategies as a senior director/comms lead. She most recently was deputy comms director for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and is a Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) and House Foreign Affairs alum. …

… Joel Miller is starting as senior manager for U.S. policy and economic graph at LinkedIn. He most recently was a policy director at the Information Technology Industry Council, and is a Mike O'Rielly and Brett Guthrie alum. … Dwayne Clark will be legislative assistant for Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.), handling space and agriculture. He currently is military legislative assistant for Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio).

ENGAGED — Corey Becker, legislative director for Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), and Franci Rooney, counsel to Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), got engaged over the weekend in Montecito, Calif., while visiting friends. The couple met while working for their respective bosses on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Their first date was over oysters at Pearl Dive just before the pandemic started. Pic

— Michelle Zar, director at Brightspot and a POLITICO alum, and Zach Beecher, chief of staff at America's Frontier Fund, got engaged Wednesday at Lulu's Wine Bar, surrounded by the whole family. It was the same spot as their first date two years ago.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) … Reps. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) and Trent Kelly (R-Miss.) … Giulia Giannangeli of the House Small Business GOP … Maddison Stone … March of Dimes' Stacey Stewart Stephen Ezell … Medtronic's Adam Brand Vanessa Cadavillo … POLITICO's Lorraine Woellert, Ali Taki and Tierra PerdueVayl Oxford … NBC's Bridget BowmanMeghan Milloy … AstraZeneca's Elizabeth Brooks Elizabeth Rhee … former Sens. John Breaux (D-La.) and Luther Strange (R-Ala.) … Howard Altman … former Reps. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.) and Randy Hultgren (R-Ill.) … Jess McCarron Arif Hasan of Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak's reelect … Natalie SzemetyloRyan LittleAaron SherinianLauren VicaryMike BloomquistTom JonesJonathan Lipman … Raben Group's Jessica McCall Sally Canfield Max Morningstar

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