| | | | | | | Presented By Facebook | | | | Axios AM | | By Mike Allen ·Mar 01, 2022 | | ⚜️ Welcome to March, and Fat Tuesday. New Orleans today holds its first full-dress Mardi Gras since 2020. - Smart Brevity™ count: 1,460 words ... 5½ mins. Edited by Noah Bressner.
| | | | | | 1 big thing — Biden's dilemma: Putin off-ramp | | Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on economic issues at the Kremlin yesterday. Photo: Alexey Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images With Ukraine holding Russia off longer than many U.S. officials had expected, President Biden now faces a great unanswered question — how to give Vladimir Putin an off-ramp to avoid even greater calamity. - Why it matters: A cornered, humiliated Putin could unleash untold pain on the world, from cyberattacks to nuclear threats. After enacting brutal sanctions, the White House now must consider how the invasion can end without a new catastrophe, Axios' Jonathan Swan and Zachary Basu report.
Between the lines: Nobody knows what Putin would accept. - Many officials fear that we are heading into a very dangerous period — the punishing Western sanctions pushing an autocrat into a corner.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), vice chair of the Senate intelligence committee, has hinted Putin could be addled. - "This is the most dangerous moment in 60 years," Rubio tweeted Sunday night. Putin, he said, "is facing a humiliating military fiasco & he has triggered extraordinary consequences on #Russia's economy & people that will not be easy to reverse ... And his only options to reset this imbalance are catastrophic ones."
A European diplomat told reporters at a briefing yesterday: "It's like the Sun Tzu thing of giving someone a golden bridge to retreat across. How do you get him to go in a different direction?" - "I think the door to diplomacy remains open," the diplomat continued. "Putin ... doesn't normally back down. But he also controls the information environment in his own country to such an extent that if he does, he can cover his tracks. ... So I think there is room for him to de-escalate — and that's certainly what we're pressing for."
The diplomat pointed to yesterday's Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Belarus as the most viable off-ramp in a sea of bad options, noting that negotiations lasted for four hours and appear headed for a second round. - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said before the talks that he was willing to discuss "neutral status" for Ukraine — one of Putin's three demands.
- But the other two — demilitarization and "denazification" of Ukraine, and recognition of Russia's claim to Crimea — suggest Putin will never accept a deal in which Zelensky remains in power.
The bottom line: The West's response to Putin — for so long, uncertain and halting — has moved at astonishing speed and ferocity over the past week. How Putin will respond — and whether de-escalation is even possible — is keeping national-security leaders up at night. |     | | | | | | 2. West squeezes oligarchs |  | | | Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg, Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images | | | | The West is ratcheting up economic pressure on Russia's oligarchs — known for splashy yachts and piles of dark money squirreled away around the globe, Axios Markets co-author Emily Peck writes. - Why it matters: Some of these wealthy Russians may have a measure of influence over Vladimir Putin. The U.S. and Europe are hoping that if they squeeze the oligarchs, the oligarchs may pressure Putin. In the longer term, going after hidden Russian wealth could curtail the power of Putin and his circle.
The EU yesterday banned travel and froze assets of 26 businessmen, government officials and even journalists with longstanding ties to Putin, the Financial Times first reported (subscription). - On the list: Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft, Russia's state oil company, "considered to be one of the most powerful members of the Russian Political elite," the EU said in its statement.
- Nikolay Tokarev, CEO of Transneft, a major oil and gas company, is also among the West's specific targets. He served with Putin in the KGB in the 1980s and is one of the oligarchs who took control of state assets in the 2000s, the EU said.
Reality check: There's a lot of Russian money hidden around the globe, including in the U.S. and U.K. — and it's not always clear where it is. - Recent laws passed in the U.S. and EU are intensifying efforts to untangle this dark web, but they're just at the start.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 3. Uglier phase: 40 miles of tanks | | Satellite image: ©2022 Maxar Technologies Maxar Technologies says the Russian convoy converging on Kyiv stretches 40 miles — up from the 17 miles we told you about in Axios PM. - The tanks, self-propelled artillery and armored vehicles are spaced fairly far apart in some stretches. In others, the military equipment is traveling two or three vehicles abreast, Maxar says.
"The Russian advance on Kyiv has made little progress over the past 24 hours probably as a result of continuing logistical difficulties," the British defense ministry said in a military intelligence update quoted by Reuters. - But the war entered a new, uglier phase: 70 Ukrainian servicemen were killed by a Russian rocket attack, and dozens of civilians have died in "barbaric" shelling, Ukrainian officials said.
Axios Ukraine dashboard. | | | | | | | | A message from Facebook | | Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations | | |  | | | | Paige is one of many experts working on privacy at Facebook — to give you more control over your information. Hear more from Paige on why Facebook supports updating regulations on the internet's most pressing challenges, including federal privacy legislation. | | | | | | 4. Axios-Ipsos poll: Biden gets little credit for COVID recovery |  Data: Axios/Ipsos poll. Chart: Will Chase/Axios Americans are abandoning COVID fears and precautions, a sea change in the past few weeks as severe illnesses fell, states dropped mandates and the CDC relaxed guidelines, Axios managing editor Margaret Talev writes from a new installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index. - Why it matters: As President Biden gives his State of the Union address at 9 p.m. ET tonight, more people feel the worst is behind them — but they aren't giving him credit. That's a devastating miss for a leader who won election on his promises to move the nation beyond the pandemic.
Just 35% of respondents said the Biden administration has done an excellent or good job jumpstarting the economy and supporting American small business. - The administration is also underwater on communicating clearly and protecting frontline health workers.
- 58% said the administration did an excellent or good job on supporting vaccine development and distribution.
Just 43% of respondents now say they trust Biden to provide them with accurate information about the virus, down from 54% a year ago. | | | | | | | | 5. Scoop: Inside the Smiths' scramble for cash |  | | | Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela. Photos: Drew Angerer/Getty Images, Aniruddha Chowdhury/Mint | | | | Justin Smith, former head of Bloomberg Media, and Ben Smith, former N.Y. Times media columnist, have approached some of the biggest names in media to try to raise $20-30 million to launch a news organization by fall, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer reports. - Why it matters: The Smiths, who tell investors they'll burn through $50 million in cash before breaking even, have approached Bob Iger, Michael Bloomberg and Laurene Powell Jobs' Emerson Collective, sources tell Axios.
David Rubenstein, often mentioned as a potential investor, is seriously looking at it but has yet to decide, according to a source. - Two people who were asked to invest said the Smiths' plan is too vague and too unconvincing to throw money at right now.
Ben Smith is telling people he plans to go all-in on the 2024 presidential campaign, in keeping with his theory — which he proved as an early personality at Politico, and as editor-in-chief of BuzzFeed news — that political scoops are the way to build buzz and a brand. - Ben Smith has said New York Times scoop machine Maggie Haberman is the best reporter in the country, and he'd love to hire her. Haberman declined to comment.
At investor pitches, the Smiths toss around "elite audience" and "disruption," and say they'll hire superstar reporters who eventually could attract subscriptions. The business model will include subscriptions, advertising and events, they said. - The model — and pitch — sounds to some investors like Puck but with global ambitions.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 6. Charted: Ruble turns to rubble |  Data: FactSet. Chart: Will Chase/Axios Just days ago, Russia had the world's fifth-largest stockpile of foreign exchange. Putin's central bank lost access to about half its stash under Western sanctions imposed over the weekend, Bloomberg reports. | | | | | | | | 7. Colbert's adieu |  | | | Screenshot: "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" | | | | Stephen Colbert last night said farewell to his executive producer and showrunner, Chris Licht, who's off to run CNN. - "I trained the next president of CNN," Colbert said to applause.
"Chris, we're gonna miss your fleece vests, your strange loyalty to the folks at UNTUCKit," Colbert said. "I personally will miss the frantic, flailing hand gestures when I got 38 minutes with Neil deGrasse Tyson." | | | | | | | | 8. ⚾ 🏀 What $4 million in sports relics looks like |  | | | Photos: Heritage Auctions. Visual: Annelise Capossela/Axios | | | | Multiple world records were set at a two-day sports-memorabilia sale by Heritage Auctions of Dallas. Clockwise, from left: - "One of seven known ticket stubs from Jackie Robinson's big-league debut in the spring of 1947 sold for $480,000, making it the most expensive sporting-event ticket ever sold at auction."
- "A pair of Air Jordans worn by Michael Jordan during the Chicago Bulls' 116-107 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on April 1, 1986, sold for $675,000."
- "The jersey worn by Mickey Mantle when he played his final game as a New York Yankee on Sept. 28, 1968, sold for $2,190,000."
- "The only known full ticket" from Michael Jordan's NBA debut sold for a record $468,000.
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