WHERE WE'RE HEADED — "Putin chose this war," President Joe Biden said today, announcing new Russian sanctions after the Russian president launched an assault on Ukraine. But, as Russian soldiers continue their attacks from Kyiv to the Donbas, one big question looms: Why is Vladimir Putin doing this? Nightly asked national security experts to weigh in on what Putin's ultimate endgame is in declaring war in Ukraine. These responses have been edited. "Russia's written demands show he intends to revise history and change the post-1989 European security order. Attacking Ukraine has probably assuaged his damaged ego from the claim Russia is a declining power. On one hand, Putin wants to restore the notion of empire and doesn't recognize the legitimacy of former Soviet republics. At the same time, military aggression against manufactured enemies is a way to deflect discontent at home and maintain his power. "Putin's first order of business is to topple the pro-Western government of Ukraine and to make the country a vassal state like in neighboring Belarus. U.S. intelligence has been spot on about Russia's plans, and has already warned about kill lists to crush any opposition. Moving beyond Ukraine should not be ruled out. But an attack on a NATO member would be a game changer. That won't stop him from bullying countries on the eastern flank of NATO. Putin's long-term aim is to sow division within the transatlantic alliance . Ultimately Putin wants to make a mockery of democratic ideas and not allow Western values to take hold in or close to Russia." — Sudha David-Wilp, deputy director of the Berlin Office of the German Marshall Fund "A fixed neutral status of Ukraine, with it not joining NATO, no military support for Ukraine and preferably a political regime more loyal to Moscow." — Tetyana Malyarenko , professor of European security at the National University Odessa Law Academy in Ukraine "Namely, Putin seeks a significant expansion of Russian territory in the region; an increase in Russian influence globally; and a clear expression of Russia military strength relative to its neighbors (including in both the physical and cyber domains), as well as — and perhaps most importantly for Putin — yet another demonstration of Western impotence in the face of Russian aggression. "Essentially, having launched this war, unless it goes horribly poorly for Putin with massive Russian casualties — a highly unlikely outcome at this point given the limited weaponry, training, and intelligence support we've been willing to provide to Ukraine thus far — it is likely that he is once again going to walk away with a net gain for Russia, all at the expense of the system of international order that the U.S. and our allies have worked for decades to establish and nurture." — Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director of the National Security Institute; former Republican chief counsel and senior adviser of Senate Foreign Relations Committee during Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine "Putin's end game goes beyond occupying the eastern regions of Ukraine. The Russian president's ultimate goals are to one, delegitimize the Zelenskyy Government in Kyiv. And two, occupy all of Ukraine and prop up a government supportive of Moscow. And three, signal to the world that any further expansion of NATO to the east will not be tolerated. "Putin longs for vestiges of the former Soviet Union, where Russia was regarded as one of only two superpowers and by default , met with a sense of hallowed respect. I believe he feels justified in his actions. Sadly, I see a scenario where severe economic sanctions by the United States, United Kingdom, and the European Union, actually work, forcing President Putin to recognize, or tolerate, the independence of Ukraine and cede control back to its people, however, not without the annexation Donetsk and Luhansk in the East, which Russia already recognized as two independent states this past Monday." — Charles Carithers , principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs and visiting fellow at the National Security Institute; former staff member on House Committee of Homeland Security advising Chair Bennie Thompson; worked in the U.S. intelligence community for 11 years Stay tuned tomorrow: POLITICO Magazine will have insight from more top Russia experts and officials on Putin's endgame in the Friday Cover story. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at mward@politico.com, or on Twitter at @MyahWard.
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