Thursday, February 24, 2022

🤫 Ukraine’s Plan B

Plus: Undercutting the sanctions | Thursday, February 24, 2022
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By the Axios Politics team ·Feb 24, 2022

Welcome back to Sneak. World order took a turn today.

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,078 words ... 4 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.

 
 
1 big thing: Scoop - U.S. considers training Ukrainians
Residents of Kyiv huddle in a subway station amid Thursday's assault by Russia.

Ukrainians seek shelter in a Kyiv subway station today. Photo: Viacheslav Ratynsky/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told House lawmakers today the Biden administration is considering ways to train Ukrainian forces remotely if the Russians seize control of Ukraine, officials on the call told Axios' Jonathan Swan and Hans Nichols.

Why it matters: With the capital of Kyiv in danger of falling after Russia's invasion, the Pentagon is contemplating the next phase of the conflict.

  • Austin told members of the House that military officials are looking at ways to provide more defense equipment — including ammunition — to Ukrainian forces, but it's more difficult now with Russian troops swarming the country.
  • Russian mechanized forces, which came in from Belarus, were 20 miles outside of Kyiv, he said.
  • Austin also emphasized the Biden administration would support Zelesnky's government as long as it remained "viable," raising questions about continued U.S. assistance if the president flees the country, is captured or is killed in combat.
  • The Defense Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the contents of the private call.

Driving the news: With the harsh sanctions imposed early today unlikely to stop Russia's advances, the next phase of the Western strategy will center on turning Ukraine into a "porcupine" of resistance.

  • "I had to fight an insurgency in Iraq, so I know how effective an insurgency can be," said Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). "With the right spirit, right intel and right weaponry, the Ukrainians can make the Russians rethink if they want to occupy Ukraine."
  • "We have absolutely discussed [supporting an insurgency and sending arms to Ukrainians] but it's not something that I can discuss," said Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.).
  • Both are Marine veterans.

Keep reading.

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2. Secrecy undercuts sanctions' impact
An illustration shows American money behind an opening American flag.

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

The sanctions aimed at punishing Russia's invasion of Ukraine will likely face a self-inflicted obstacle, experts tell Axios' Lachlan Markay: opaque financial vehicles allowing illicit foreign assets to flow through Western economies.

Why it matters: Financial transparency advocates have warned for years that lax disclosure of such transfers allows malicious foreign actors to hide their immense wealth. Now, it could imperil U.S. efforts to inflict pain on Kremlin officials behind the country's attack on its eastern neighbor.

  • Lawmakers and regulators are still grappling with the explosion of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets, many of which are difficult or impossible to trace.
  • U.S. law enforcement also believes hundreds of millions in Russian assets are tied up in private U.S. investment funds.
  • And officials on both sides of the Atlantic are eyeing ways to address the massive amounts of Russian money tied up in Western real estate.

On Capitol Hill, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is trying to target the problem by pushing an interagency task force targeting Putin, whose personal wealth is estimated to be in the billions.

  • "I want this task force to go after Putin's assets personally," he said.

Across the Atlantic, British authorities plan to restrict Russian access to financial markets and crack down on the oligarch's extensive high-end real estate purchases.

  • "We are making sure that we open up the Russian doll of property ownership, of company ownership, in London and see who's behind everything," Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the BBC on Sunday.

Keep reading.

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3. Charted: Arming Ukraine
Data: ForeignAssistance.gov; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

Ukraine is among the top recipients of direct military assistance from the Defense Department — but the Pentagon has spent far more helping other countries.

Why it matters: Ukraine is in the fight of its life after Russia's invasion. To the surprise of many, it's held its own, attributable both to its people's spirit as well as advanced weapons supplied by the West, Hans also writes.

The big picture: The Pentagon provided close to $12 billion in direct military assistance to partners and allies across the globe in 2020, according to ForeignAssistance.gov, the U.S. government's clearinghouse for foreign aid.

  • Most of the money is used to purchase U.S. weapons and equipment.

By the numbers: Israel tops the list, receiving $3.3 billion.

  • Other big recipients, like Afghanistan and Iraq, have been the site of active conflicts.
  • Spending on Ukraine climbed to $303.6 million during President Trump's last year in office.
  • In 2013, before Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine received $41 million, followed by $58 million in 2014, the year of Russia's invasion there.

Go deeper: Full figures for 2021 aren't yet available.

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4. Worthy of your time
A TelePrompTer shows part of President Biden's Ukraine remarks on Thursday.

A TelePrompTer in the East Room shows part of President Biden's Ukraine remarks today. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

🐘 Top House Republicans are adopting a starkly measured tone in responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy laying off from attacking the president in a statement that called for Putin to be "held accountable."

  • "We stand resolute with the Ukrainian people and resolve to provide them with the tools they need to withstand and repel this unprovoked attack," the top Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs, Armed Services and Intelligence committees said in a statement.

💥 Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is not offering the same grace, arguing in a statement that President Biden "should have exercised his extensive authorities to impose certain tough sanctions early enough to actually deter invasion and weaken Russia."

  • "We should have ensured that the pipeline of lethal aid to Ukraine was flowing far sooner. And we should have sent more reinforcements to support NATO's eastern flank allies earlier," McConnell added.

💨 Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), the 87-year-old ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, plans to announce Monday that he'll retire at the end of this session in 2023 — rather than serving out his full term, according to the New York Times and Politico.

  • According to the Times, the timing of the announcement is geared toward ensuring a special election is held to replace him rather than the governor appointing a caretaker.

📊 A Fox News poll found more Republicans have an unfavorable view of Biden than they do of Putin: 81% of Republicans polled view Putin unfavorably, compared with 92% who view Biden unfavorably.

  • Former President Trump also is viewed unfavorably by more Democrats than Putin, 87% to 85%.

👩‍🦰 Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and White House press secretary Jen Psaki exchanged barbs after Cruz encouraged the crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference to boo her, and referred to her as "Peppermint Patty."

  • "Don't tell him I like Peppermint Patty, so I'm not going to take it so offensively," Psaki said during the daily White House briefing. "Sen. Cruz, I like Peppermint Patty. I'm a little tougher than that, but there you go."
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5. Pic du jour
A woman is seen painting the word

Photo: Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

 

A woman paints the word "MURDER" in front of the Russian Embassy on Wisconsin Avenue.

  • She was later detained by authorities.
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We're making investments in safety and security — and seeing results
 
 

Facebook has invested $13 billion over the last 5 years to help keep you safe. Since July, we've taken action on:

  • 34.7M pieces of explicit adult content.
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  • 9.8M pieces of terrorism-related content.

See how we're working to help you connect safely.

 

🇺🇸 Thanks for reading this tumultuous week. We'll be back Sunday evening. Stay tuned in the meantime to the Axios app and Axios.com for continuing Ukraine coverage.

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