Good morning. A war that could be Europe's largest conflict in decades has begun. Last night, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine while warning that anyone trying to interfere with the Russian military will lead to "consequences you have never seen." More coverage below. —Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, Jamie Wilde | | | |  | Nasdaq | 13,037.49 | | | | | S&P | 4,225.50 | | | | | Dow | 33,131.76 | | | | | 10-Year | 1.880% | | | | | Bitcoin | $35,370.29 | | |  | Oil | $100.82 | | | | *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean. | - Markets: The Dow and Nasdaq fell for the fifth straight day, while the S&P fell further into correction territory. Don't expect things to get any better today—stock futures tumbled after Putin announced military action in Ukraine. The price of oil, a key Russian export, jumped following Putin's statement.
- In Moscow: Russian stocks plunged 45% for their worst day ever due to the looming threat of harsh sanctions from the West.
| | Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images The attack Western leaders have been warning us about for months has arrived. Shortly after Vladimir Putin announced Russia's military operation in Ukraine, explosions were reported in its capital, Kyiv, and in other Ukrainian cities. Troops on both sides have already been killed in fighting, according to Ukraine's military. The country also closed its airspace to civilian flights. Putin said his goal was not to occupy Ukraine, but to demilitarize it. (We went deeper into the background of the conflict, and Putin's motivations, here.) The White House recently estimated that a full-scale invasion like the kind Putin just launched could lead to 50,000 civilians killed and up to 5 million people displaced. The West responds In a statement, President Biden denounced this "unprovoked and unjustified" invasion, and asserted that "Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring." He said he'll be meeting with other members of the G7 this morning and will reveal "severe sanctions" against Russia. - The US and its Western allies have already slapped minor sanctions on the country's banks and elites, but they had pledged to bring much harsher economic penalties against Russia if it invaded Ukraine.
- The EU is readying its "harshest package" of sanctions ever, given that Putin is challenging "the whole of the international peace order," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
While sanctions could be devastating for Russia's economy, the war will ripple across the entire global economy. The predominant focus will be on energy prices, given Russia's outsized role as an oil and gas exporter. President Biden said he'd use "every tool at our disposal" in order to limit the conflict's effects on US gas prices, though that toolkit may not be able to compete with the supply pressures brought by war. US oil prices topped $100 this morning. That's not good news for the fight against inflation, nor is this: Wheat and corn futures spiked the most allowed overnight due to concerns over supply. Looking ahead…the Ukrainians, while outmatched, are prepared to fight. "As you attack, it will be our faces you see, not our backs," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a speech last night.—NF | | Many Kyiv residents fled the city this morning following Russia's first volley of attacks.  Pierre Crom/Getty ImagesUkrainians formed long lines outside banks and gas stations as air raid sirens rang out in Kyiv.  Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty ImagesBombs took out buildings in the eastern Ukraine town of Chuhuiv.  Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images | | Brandonseidel/Getty Images 🩺 Texas investigates treatments for transgender kids. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton issued an opinion that some gender-affirming treatment for transgender kids, such as gender reassignment surgery and hormone therapy, met the state standard for child abuse. Citing that (nonbinding) opinion, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told state agencies to conduct a "prompt and thorough" investigation of those treatments. Trans rights groups condemned those moves.  Phil Mickelson is sorry. The star golfer apologized after "reckless" comments surfaced that he'd support joining a breakaway, Saudi-backed golf league despite being fully aware of the kingdom's human rights abuses. But the damage has been done: He and his longtime sponsor KPMG parted ways, and Mickelson said he was going to take some time away from the sport.
 Tonga is back online after five weeks. The island nation in the southwestern Pacific Ocean lost internet after the gigantic volcanic eruption and ensuing tsunami on January 15 damaged a vital undersea cable. Because Tonga's so remote, it took a repair ship 10 days just to reach its waters…before getting to work fixing nearly 56 miles of fiber-optic cable. Tonga, like many island nations, is particularly vulnerable to outages because it only has one subsea cable providing the entire island with internet.
| | | Your bucks are a big deal. And when it comes to investing, you decide what kind of impact your dough makes. Betterment believes you can invest in more than just the market—you can invest in yourself, your family, the future, and all the stuff you care about. Their Socially Responsible Investing options help you put your money towards causes important to you. Why not build wealth and security while creating change in the world at the same dang time? Betterment's automated technology makes it easy to build a portfolio that's oh-so-wonderfully aligned with you. Start investing with your values today. | | Dianna "Mick" McDougall Bitcoin is often referred to by its loyalists as "digital gold"—a safe haven asset you can rely upon when things get hairy around the world. Well, things are really hairy, and bitcoin is failing its test. How do we know bitcoin's not behaving like digital gold? Because we know what actual gold is doing, and it's been going up. Gold prices are hovering near eight-month highs, and last week gold gained for seven straight trading sessions. Bitcoin, on the other hand, continued to fall after Russia invaded Ukraine. Down 23% in 2022, its performance this year is even worse than the major US stock indexes', which themselves have been pummeled due to concerns about Fed rate hikes and the war in Eastern Europe. It wasn't supposed to be like this Because bitcoin a) is independent from any government or monetary system and b) has a limited supply, its advocates have considered it a hedge against factors that could hit stocks, like inflation or Putin invading a neighboring country. Zoom out: While bitcoin hasn't behaved like gold, it has behaved more like something else: a tech stock. As of late January, the 100-day correlation between bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was 0.4 (1 means they're in lockstep). Bitcoin's correlation with gold was 0.008, Bloomberg notes.—NF | | Sean Gallup/Getty Images Stat: Pregnancy-related deaths for US mothers spiked 14% in 2020 compared to 2019, from 754 to 861, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. The increase was most pronounced among Black women, who experienced roughly 3x the rate of maternal deaths of white and Hispanic women. It also highlights the major discrepancy in maternal mortality rates in the US compared to other countries: The rate in the US is more than 2x that in other wealthy nations such as the UK and Canada. Quote: "I think it's about just going to bed, because I don't think I will have dinner at 2:30 in the morning." 16-year-old chess grandmaster Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa just became the youngest person to beat world champion Magnus Carlsen, but he wasn't up for a midnight snack after the match. Read: Shopify's evolution. (Stratechery) | | - Two prosecutors leading the Manhattan district attorney's probe into former President Trump's business dealings abruptly resigned yesterday, throwing the investigation into doubt.
- Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revoked emergency powers he had instituted during the Ottawa protests, saying the coast was clear.
- Tesla's new factory in Germany is being delayed by concerns over its water usage.
- Hawaii is the only US state that hasn't announced plans to lift mask mandates, or has none in place.
| | | Look out, a brainstorm's a-brewing! The team's aligned, the ideas are flowing, and you're doing it all from six different states. How? You're using MURAL, an online whiteboard (and more!) that lets you collaborate, exchange ideas, and visualize strategies from anywhere. Sticky notes, timers, voting, GIFs? MURAL's got it all. Sign up for MURAL's free forever plan and map out your next success today. | | When the market goes wild, keep calm and diversify. Economic forces like inflation can wreak havoc on the traditional stock market, throwing your investments in flux. Learn the secret to stabilizing your portfolio with alternative assets like real estate in our interactive guide, created together with Fundrise.* Ukraine resources: For anyone on Twitter, here's a list of reporters on the ground and other experts to follow. For those who want a longer read, here are five great books on Russia and Ukraine. YouTube rabbit hole: Just a whole lot of machines. St. Patrick's Day will be here before you know it. Don't get caught without the green this year—shop our St. Patrick's Day Collection now. *This is sponsored advertising content | | Brew Mini: Ready for more of a challenge? Today's Mini delivers. Three headlines and a lie: rogue animal edition Three of these news headlines are real and one is faker than a TikTok story that ends in "follow for part two." Can you guess the odd one out? - Thousands of feral chickens are roaming in Hawaii, a new bill proposes a unique solution to stop them
- Yay or Neigh, one of the Clydesdales that appeared in early Budweiser commercials, got loose and knocked over a tractor he hates
- Danish police seek info on apparent escaped kangaroo
- Magpies have outwitted scientists by helping each other remove tracking devices
| | | Sadly, Yay or Neigh doesn't exist. | | | ✢ A Note From Betterment Investing involves risk, performance not guaranteed. Higher bond allocations in your portfolio decreases the percentage attributable to socially responsible ETFs. | | | Written by Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, and Jamie Wilde Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here. WANT MORE BREW? Industry news, with a sense of humor → - Emerging Tech Brew: AI, crypto, space, autonomous vehicles, and more
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