| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | With help from Maggie Miller, Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 16 was always overhyped. The time frame to really keep an eye on is what happens shortly after Feb. 20. The Feb. 16 focus was understandable: Media reports, including here in NatSec Daily, noted how President JOE BIDEN told Western leaders about intelligence assessing that Russia might launch its invasion then. Importantly, though, top Biden aides never said publicly that Feb. 16 was the certain invasion day — only that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's troop buildup meant an attack could come "at any time" and possibly before the Olympics wrap up. European officials, meanwhile, downplayed the notion of an assault on Feb. 16. "We didn't see a definitive plan with that timing," a senior European official told us recently. Some speculated that tonight's full moon might be a hint, allowing invading ground forces better visibility at night. But analysts told us that the obsession with Feb. 16 — that is, today — distracted attention from actual key dates. "After Feb. 20 was always the more important time frame," said MICHAEL KOFMAN, an expert on Russia's military at the CNA think tank. "We're looking to see what Russian forces do then." That's when the largest military exercise since the Cold War is scheduled to end, after which leaders in Moscow and Minsk promised Putin's troops would head home. "Not a single Russian serviceman, not a single piece of equipment will remain in Belarus after the completion of exercises with Russia," Belarussian Foreign Minister VLADIMIR MAKEI told reporters today, even as Western officials openly fear they'll remain permanently. And after their meeting last week, officials in Paris said Putin promised French President EMMANUEL MACRON that Russia would definitely withdraw its forces from Belarus — though the Kremlin denied any guarantees were made. Kofman said where Russian forces do or don't go after Feb. 20 will provide insight into Putin's real intentions. "It's a useful date to see if they're lying or they're not. When someone lies, it tells you a lot," he said. Observers should track if troops actually head back to their barracks or are repositioned elsewhere near Ukraine's border, Kofman continued, adding it's also worth checking to see if Russian forces from the Eastern Military District that recently moved westward imminently return. There's another reason why Feb. 20 looms large: The Munich Security Conference concludes that day. The annual "Davos of defense" gathering is a major event, featuring in-person participation from leaders like Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Ukrainian President VOLODYMR ZELENSKYY . Russia launching an invasion as America's No. 2 is in Europe and/or while the Ukrainian head of state is out of the country could prove an ultimate humiliation — the kind of geopolitical trolling Putin loves. No Russian officials plan to attend the transatlantic gathering for the first time in years for "various reasons," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson MARIA ZAKHAROVA said last week. Russia also aims to conduct a nuclear exercise in mid-February, top U.S. officials warned House lawmakers this month. SAMUEL CHARAP of the Rand Corporation told NatSec Daily that Putin may want to couple the invasion with the drill "to deter a possible intervention by the U.S. and show resolve." Feb. 20 also happens to be the last day of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, leading some to speculate that Putin wouldn't launch an invasion before the closing ceremonies to keep Chinese leader XI JINPING happy. But such a link was always tenuous: Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia happened during the Summer Olympics in — you guessed it — Beijing. Biden administration officials continue to assert that Putin could renew the war in Ukraine during the Games. Every expert we spoke to said Putin wants to reclaim the narrative after the U.S. exposed many of Russia's plots. Kremlin officials now say they seek a peaceful resolution to the crisis Moscow started, including in a staged and videoed conversation between Putin and Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV . Analysts suggested that this might just be a ruse, and that Putin is using the extra time to prepare a pretext for invasion, now that his false flag video operation is out in the open. "Putin is not going to want to invade on our schedule," Charap said. "Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday," VLADIMIR CHIZHOV, Russia's EU ambassador, told German newspaper Die Welt , adding there would be "no escalation in the coming week either, or in the week after that, or in the coming months." But each week that Russia's troops remain at the ready further narrows the window for a possible invasion. Keeping troops out in the cold in temporary tents and with no regular supply lines means Russian forces can't hold on Ukraine's doorstep forever. And, as many Twitter warriors have noted, the eventual spring thaw brings muddy terrain that can stymie Russia's mechanized units. At some point, Putin needs to order an invasion or a retreat, though some equipment can be left in place. If March 1 arrives and there's still no invasion, some Russia watchers said they'd breathe a bit easier. But ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR, a former U.S. intelligence official focused on Russia, insisted even then the danger would be far from over. Putin "could also dial tensions down and just as quickly ratchet them up again. Just because these dates come and go doesn't mean the risk, at this point, is any less," she told us.
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The Sikorsky-Boeing DEFIANT X™ aircraft delivers JADO capability in a size similar to the BLACK HAWK. This means it can operate in the same spaces, both on the battlefield and at the airfield. Learn more. | | | | | | WESTERN OFFICIALS SEE NO SIGNS OF RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL: After the Russian Defense Ministry released a video showing a trainload of armored vehicles moving away from Crimea — the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014 — NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said the military alliance had not observed any evidence of a drawdown of Russian troops along Ukraine's borders. "We have not seen any de-escalation on the ground," he told reporters ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels. "It appears that Russia continues the military buildup." Secretary Blinken shared that assessment today, telling ABC's "Good Morning America" co-host GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS that "what we're seeing is no meaningful pullback" by Russia. "On the contrary, we continue to see forces, especially forces that would be in the vanguard of any renewed aggression against Ukraine, continuing to be at the border, to mass at the border," he said. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy also told the BBC's SARAH RAINSFORD that "we don't see any withdrawal yet." Speaking from a military training ground near Rivne in Western Ukraine, Zelenskyy added: "When the troops do pull back, everyone will see that," he told me. "But for now, it's just statements." Russia previously announced Tuesday that some of its forces were pulling back from the Ukrainian border, but President JOE BIDEN said in a White House address that the United States had not yet verified that claim. FRANCE CONSIDERING MALI MILITARY WITHDRAWAL: France and European allies are weighing a full withdrawal of troops from Mali, which, if executed, would signal a shift in its own forever war after directly fighting Islamist extremists there for a decade. "The preparations come after months of deteriorating relations between the West and Mali's rulers, who took over the West African nation in a coup backed by the military in May. The Malian government has since hired Russian private security firm Wagner Group, prompting Europe to impose sanctions on the coup leaders. France has suspended much of its financial support for the impoverished nation to stop those funds from being used to pay Wagner an estimated $10 million a month," the Wall Street Journal's MATTHEW DALTON and MICHAEL PHILLIPS reported. "Regional branches of Islamic State and al Qaida are operating in the country's vast hinterlands north of Bamako, the capital. European officials say they will move French and European forces to a neighboring country in the region, possibly Niger. Officials are also debating whether they can conduct strikes inside Mali without the permission of the government," they continued. "We have to readjust our global stance — because things cannot stay how they are — to continue our fight in the Sahel against terrorism," French Foreign Minister JEAN-YVES LE DRIAN said Tuesday night. J. PETER PHAM, former President DONALD TRUMP 's special envoy to the Sahel, told NatSec Daily that "despite making an appreciable contribution by eliminating some very bad actors, sometimes with U.S. ISR support — the French never developed a proper strategic approach. Undeniable tactical superiority over jihadist and other armed groups is strategically irrelevant in the context of insurgency." "They have confused the necessity of a military intervention with its sufficiency, failing to take into account the need to win the 'hearts and minds' of the political classes in the Sahel, let alone the masses," he added. CLOSE ENOUGH: American and Russian forces had a series of close encounters in the Mediterranean this weekend when Russian Su-35 fighter planes flew within feet of American P-8 surveillance planes, Pentagon spokesman Capt. MIKE KAFKA confirmed to POLITICO's PAUL MCLEARY. The American aircraft "experienced unprofessional intercepts by Russian aircraft," on three occasions, Kafka said. "We have made our concerns known to Russian officials through diplomatic channels." The encounters come as Russia is conducting large-scale naval exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, which include multiple ships pulled from the Pacific and Northern fleets, and a new deployment of Tu-22 Backfire bombers to Syria. The U.S. isn't standing still, however. On Wednesday, a group of Utah-based F-35As arrived at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, following the deployment last week of F-15s to Poland and Estonia, and B-52s to England. In a statement, Gen. JEFF HARRIGIAN, Commander U.S. Air Forces in Europe / Africa, said "we are facing a dynamic environment and this deployment [of F-35s] significantly enhances our support to NATO's defenses." IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | ELECTION OFFICIALS FACE FOREIGN INTERFERENCE: As the nation's top election officials fight to counter a wave of election conspiracies across the United States ahead of the midterms in November, they are also warning about the threats posed by foreign misinformation efforts to America's democracy, per our own ZACH MONTELLARO. Oregon Secretary of State SHEMIA FAGAN said federal officials have stressed that foreign interference campaigns are still active. "They expect Russia to be much more involved in spreading mis- and disinformation in 2022 and 2024," she said. In addition to partnerships with other secretaries of state, election officials also have been leaning on federal agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security to help prepare local election workers. According to Montellaro, many secretaries are sounding off about "pressures on other fronts, from physical and cybersecurity-related dangers to a potential retirement crisis" — not to mention the insider threats of local election officials potentially undermining the contests they're charged with overseeing.
| | | |   | | | | | | UKRAINE'S CLOSE CALL: Ukrainian officials on Wednesday declared that Ukraine had successfully stopped the largest cyber incident involving a Distributed Denial of Service attack in the nation's history, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. The DDoS attacks, which involves hackers directing massive amounts of traffic at a network until it collapses (think: like Coinbase's Super Bowl ad ), temporarily disabled the websites of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainian officials said Wednesday that further attacks on the websites of the Foreign Intelligence Service and the Security Service of Ukraine were stopped. Attacks were also targeted at major Ukrainian banks including Privatbank and Oschadbank, but no funds were stolen. "Now all resources work stably," Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister MYKHAILO FEDOROV said in a statement on Wednesday. "We and our colleagues monitored the situation, responded quickly and provided support to all sectors. Yesterday's attack is a new challenge for Ukraine." Ukraine is not fully out of the woods. VICTOR ZHORA, deputy chairman of the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine, said in a separate statement that the "attack is still ongoing, and its average power reaches tens of gigabits per second, the situation is completely under control: web resources continue to function." White House press secretary JEN PSAKI today said "we don't have any new details on attribution." SPILLOVER CYBERATTACK COULD TRIGGER NATO RESPONSE: Senate Intelligence Committee Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) is warning about the "unchartered waters" the United States might be forced into should Moscow mount a cyberattack against Ukraine that also affects NATO countries — potentially resulting in an Article 5 response and more direct U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine security crisis. Warner told CNN's "New Day" co-host JOHN BERMAN that he's concerned about U.S. officials "focusing a lot on the kinetic activity," like tanks and troops, and not enough of other fronts in a hybrid war. "My fear is if Russia launches a major cyberattack against Ukraine, for example, and tries to shut down the power or the water, sometimes those cyberattacks don't know geographic boundaries," Warner said. "What will happen if that cyberattack bleeds into Poland, which is a NATO nation?" Asked whether the United States would be forced to retaliate in such a scenario, Warner responded: "That has been one of those hypothetical debates, literally, for years. But the notion [that] if you suddenly turn out the lights in eastern Poland, and that results in a wreck of a NATO vehicle where we've now got additional American troops, we're entering into these unchartered waters. And this is why this still may be the most dangerous week for traditional European boundaries since the Second World War."
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | SECAF TALKS HYPERSONICS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported on Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL 's Tuesday comment that he sees a "role for hypersonics" but reaffirmed his contention that they are no silver bullet. "The cost-effectiveness has to be looked at carefully," he told the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. "Hypersonics can be very expensive, and the question is, 'Can you do the job with conventional missiles at less cost just as effectively?'" Kendall said there are other ways to fill the role. "Hypersonics are a way to penetrate defenses, but they are not the only way," he said. "You can penetrate defenses with stealth and with countermeasures and so on, with a combination of tactics and things. So we need to look across the spectrum and make smart decisions about the munitions we buy." He also said that surface-launched hypersonic missiles have pluses. "If you are doing it air-delivered, the idea of getting there fast is sort of countered by the fact that you have to fly the airplane there before you launch the missile," he said. "So you lose some of that advantage."
| | | BOWMAN OFF ABRAHAM ACCORDS BILL: Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) will remove his name from a bill supporting the Abraham Accords, a change not only for the lawmaker but also for the occupant of his congressional seat. Jewish Currents' ALEX KANE obtained a letter from Bowman to his constituents in which he explains his change of heart. After a trip to Israel and Palestinian territories led by the left-leaning and pro-Israel group J Street, "[m]y experience on the ground and further conversation with constituents led me to see that it is not the right step to fulfill these goals" of peace and a two-state solution. "Furthermore, I became aware that the deals that this bill supports and seeks to pursue, have included deals at odds with human rights and safety for everyday people in the region," he wrote. Bowman defeated former Rep. ELIOT ENGEL , then chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, to nab his seat in 2020. Engel was a staunch pro-Israel member who more often than not sided with Israelis over Palestinians on security matters. Since coming to office, Bowman has walked a fine line between supporting Israel but affirming the rights of Palestinians in occupied lands. The bill, titled the Israel Relations Normalization Act, will still pass the House without Bowman's support, since roughly 75 percent of the chamber has signed on to the measure. Both AIPAC and J Street are in favor of the bill.
| | | COLBY AND 'ASIA FIRSTERS' VS. BOLTON AND TRADITIONALISTS: If you want to see the intra-GOP fight over how to handle China, look now further than Twitter. Former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed yesterday arguing that the U.S. must focus on multiple national security threats at once, not just go all-in on China, as some want. "Such assertions about reduced or redirected U.S. global involvement are strategic errors. They reflect the misperception that our international attention and resources are zero-sum assets, so that whatever notice is paid to interests and threats other than China is wasted. This is false, both its underlying zero-sum premise and in underestimating non-Chinese threats. Our problem is failing to devote anything like adequate attention or resources to protecting vital global interests," Bolton wrote. ELBRIDGE COLBY, a former top Trump administration Pentagon official and longtime advocate for devoting most of America's national security resources to the China challenge, called Bolton out for the piece. "Let me boil down John Bolton's article: He's a dove on China," Colby tweeted today. "Let's just strip out the chest-beating rhetoric. The practical, clear implications of his argument are *not* to focus military resources, diplomatic capital, etc. on China in Asia. Meantime China is galloping ahead. So he's a dove in practical terms." This spat reflects a growing schism inside the Republican Party on broader U.S. foreign policy. Most in the GOP, like Bolton, say America must be strong to counter challenges from everywhere, including from Russia and Iran. While Colby's wing agrees with that, his main contention is that you can't devote limited U.S. resources to every problem — Washington must choose. Colby, and lawmakers like Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) whom he's advised, choose China. "There's a lot of people arguing against Asia first strategy. Tip: Look at what their argument means in concrete military power, spending, and political capital terms. That'll tell you what they're really arguing. Ignore the rhetoric," Colby tweeted hours later.
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With the same operational footprint as the legendary BLACK HAWK, the Sikorsky-Boeing DEFIANT X™ weapon system is the best fit for the Army Air Assault Mission. Learn more. | | | | | | — MARK SIMAKOVSKY has joined U.S. Agency for International Development as a deputy assistant administrator in the Bureau for Europe and Eurasia. He was previously senior vice president at Beacon Global Strategies. — NICOLE PORRECA is joining Boeing as director for international operations and policy. She spent the past seven years as senior foreign policy adviser for Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and is an alum of the Obama NSC and the State Department. — MARK LIPPERT was named executive vice president and head of North America public affairs at Samsung Electronics America. Lippert worked at Google and Boeing after his stint as U.S. ambassador to South Korea.
| | | — MAX HASTINGS, Bloomberg: "Ukraine Failures Show Germany Is Europe's Weak Link" — MICHAEL SCHUMAN, The Atlantic: " Now China Understands What a Nuclear Rivalry Looks Like" — MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG, POLITICO: "When it comes to diplomacy, Wolfgang Ischinger means business"
| | | — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 8:30 a.m.: "The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict — with ELBRIDGE COLBY" — The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9 a.m.: "China's Cyber Capabilities: Warfare, Espionage, and Implications for the United States — with CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, JOHN CHEN, DEAN CHENG, WINNONA DESOMBRE and ALEX WONG" — The Air Force Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: "Aerospace Nation: Spectrum Warfare — with KEN DWORKIN, KEN ISRAEL, DANIEL SIMPSON and WILLIAM YOUNG JR." — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: The Burma Crisis, One Year After the Coup — with CRAIG HART and KIN MOY" — House Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: The Rise in Violence Against Minority Institutions — with SETH G. JONES, DAVID K. WILSON, RABBI CHARLIE CYTRON-WALKER, DEMETRICK PENNIE, PARDEEP SINGH KALEKA, BRANDON TATUM and MARGARET HUANG" — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: " The Olympics and Russian Invasion — with PHILLIP BREEDLOVE, IULIA JOJA, ROBERT MCCONNELL and GONUL TOL" — Senate Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with FRANK CALVELLI, RAVI CHAUDHARY, FRANKLIN PARKER and AGNES SCHAEFER" — The United States Institute of Peace holds a virtual discussion, 10 a.m.: "Between the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan and the Durand Line: Pakistan's Policy Toward the Afghan Taliban — with ASFANDYAR MIR, TAMANNA SALIKUDDIN, ELIZABETH THRELKELD and KAMRAN YOUSUF" — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing : Addressing the Gaps in America's Biosecurity Preparedness — with CHRISTOPHER P. CURRIE, ASHA M. GEORGE and GERALD W. PARKER" — The Stimson Center, 10:30 a.m.: "Taking Stock of Arms Trade Treaty Reporting — with CARINA SOLMIRANO, RACHEL STOHL and SABINE VISSNER" — The American Bar Association's Standing Committee on Law and National Security, 10:45 a.m.: "National Security Law CLE Conference: Emerging Critical Issues — with WILLIAM C. BANKS, SUE GORDON, MATTHEW G. OLSEN, HARVEY RISHIKOF and SUZANNE SPAULDING" — The Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: "The Unfinished History of the Iran-Iraq War: Faith, Firepower, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards — with ANNIE TRACY SAMUEL" — The Atlantic Council, 11:30 a.m.: "The European Union's Emerging Data Policy Landscape — with FEDERICO CILAURO, PETER FATELNIG and EVA MAYDELL" — Washington Post Live, 12 p.m.: "Crisis in Ukraine — with WILLIAM TAYLOR" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 12:30 p.m.: " Closed Briefing — with SAMANTHA POWER" — The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 1 p.m.: "What's At Stake for U.S. and Israel in the Russia-Ukraine Crisis? — with YAACOV AYISH, PHILIP BREEDLOVE and MICHAEL MAKOVSKY" — House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: Call to Action: Private Sector Investment in the Northern Triangle and Its Impact on Homeland Security — with DAN CHRISTENSON, MARIA NELLY RIVAS, DANIEL RUNDE and ANDERSON WARLICK" — The Wilson Center, 3 p.m.: "The Unexpected War: Canada in Kandahar — with EUGENE LANG, CHRISTOPHER SANDS and JANICE STEIN" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who notoriously hates launching wars on Wednesdays. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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