| | | | | | | | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team ·Feb 16, 2022 | | Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,494 words ... 5.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson. | | | | | | 1 big thing: GOP tensions boil over Trump's fundraising tactics |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | Donald Trump's spamming of Republican donors could kneecap party efforts to build a steady funding stream for future elections and compete with Democratic fundraising, top GOP officials privately warn Axios' Lachlan Markay and Jonathan Swan. Why it matters: The former president's decision to bombard donors with numerous daily emails and texts is sucking up record sums. Four top GOP digital strategists tell Axios it's also imperiling efforts to build a sustainable, grassroots base of financial support for anyone not named Trump. The big picture: Trump is raking in donations. His political vehicles, led by the group Save America, raised more than $51 million during the second half of 2021. - They also ended the year with more than $122 million in the bank, according to FEC reports.
- Trump's small-dollar fundraising operation is the vanguard, driven by ceaseless emails and text messages hitting up his supporters for cash.
One veteran Republican digital strategist told Axios the effect, compared with the potency or engagement of other ex-presidents, is "something we've never had in the history of digital fundraising." - 22 cents of every dollar that GOP payment processor WinRed brought in last year went not to GOP midterm candidates but to two Trump committees: Save America, and the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, an Axios analysis of campaign finance records shows.
- The two groups brought in more WinRed money than the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee — combined.
- By comparison, top recipients of money raised through ActBlue, Democrats' WinRed counterpart, were the Democratic National Committee and the party's House and Senate campaign arms.
Between the lines: These complaints are frequently discussed privately in GOP fundraising circles. - Nobody of stature wants to talk publicly, for fear of retribution — because Trump remains the most powerful man in Republican politics.
- The four strategists spoke on condition of anonymity.
The other side: Trump's team and allies write off the criticism as jealous griping by less successful competitors. They say he's bringing in millions of new donors, and that's a financial boon for the party. - "No one in the history of the Republican Party has done more to grow the donor pool at every level than President Donald J. Trump, something that pays untold dividends to Republican candidates and causes across the nation," Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich told Axios in a statement.
Keep reading. |     | | | | | | 2. Part II - By the numbers |  The Defending Democracy Together Institute, which tracks political email traffic, shows a spike since last July in daily Trump fundraising emails. - It counted an average of at least 10 Trump fundraising emails a day since October — Christmas was an exception, with just two that day — and more than 14 per day since the start of this year, Jonathan and Lachlan also report.
- The data was culled from outreach to just one email inbox, a sampling that may not reflect the full array of Trump emails to all recipients.
As problematic as the volume, Republican critics say, is the tone. The appeals frequently rely on hard-sell tactics, such as questionable pledges that donations will be matched up to some multiple — tactics that have drawn the scrutiny of the Justice Department. - "It's a massive issue. ... The tactics and strategies they use are not sustainable," one strategist said.
The immense volume and frantic tone of Trump fundraising appeals are making it extremely difficult for other candidates seeking GOP small-dollar support to break through, operatives said. - "Conservative donors are getting six, 12, maybe even two dozen fundraising emails or text messages every single day. And the chances of them opening yours, let alone reading, clicking and donating, is pretty small to begin with," one said.
- "If you include Trump in that ... your competition for the inboxes of donors just goes through the roof. It's just it makes it so much more difficult to convert any of these people."
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | 3. Scoop: GOP moves to spoil Biden's Iran deal |  | | | Protesters in Tehran burn the American flag last week during a commemoration of Iran's Islamic revolution 43 years ago. Photo: Sobhan Farajvan/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images | | | | Nearly 200 House Republicans have written to President Biden warning any nuclear deal made with Iran without Congress' approval "will meet the same fate" as the 2015 agreement by President Obama later abandoned by President Trump, Jonathan and Axios' Zachary Basu have learned. Why it matters: The Biden administration has been working feverishly to secure an agreement via indirect nuclear talks in Vienna, but on Wednesday, an Iranian official publicly called for Congress to pledge that the U.S. will stay in a potential deal. - The GOP letter — signed by most members of the party that polls say will run the House next year — bluntly rebuffs Iran's request.
- It also complicates Biden's already-fraught efforts to revive the deal negotiated by the Obama administration and backed by the European Union and U.N. Security Council.
- The administration sees a return to an agreement as a way of avoiding a nuclear arms race in the already volatile Middle East.
What they're saying: "We will view any agreement reached in Vienna which is not submitted to the U.S. Senate for ratification as a treaty — including any and all secret agreements made with Iran directly or on the sidelines of official talks — as non-binding," the GOP lawmakers wrote to Biden. - The letter lays out conditions to which Iran's leaders would likely never agree.
- A State Department spokesperson told Axios: "The Biden administration is not negotiating a return to mutual compliance with the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] based on who is in office in Iran today or tomorrow, and we would expect the same approach from Iran."
Keep reading. Go deeper: Read the letter. | | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Sports news worthy of your time | | |  | | | | Get the latest sports headlines, stats, stories and trends delivered daily to your inbox with Axios Sports. Subscribe for free | | | | | | 4. Worthy of your time |  | | | Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) holds a stack of money to protest inflation during a news conference. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | | | | ⚖️ Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) caused a stir on the Senate floor by blocking the speedy confirmations of eight U.S. attorney nominees over broad complaints about the Democrats' stances on criminal justice, Axios' Andrew Solender reports in tonight's Sneak roundup. - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer cast Cotton's move as unprecedented, stating the last time the Senate had to take a vote on a U.S. attorney nominee — rather than confirming them by unanimous consent — was 1975.
✉️ Pop star Britney Spears, who became a cause célèbre for some lawmakers through her successful fight to end her conservatorship, posted to Instagram a letter she received from Reps. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) inviting her to meet at the Capitol. - Spears didn't reveal whether she'd take them up on the offer but said the letter made her feel "heard and like I mattered for the first time in my life."
🐘 Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) endorsed former Ohio Republican Party Chair Jane Timken in the crowded GOP primary to replace him in the Senate, citing her electability as a key factor in his decision. - "I am confident in her ability to win both the primary and the general elections, ensuring that this Senate seat remains Republican with a 50-50 Senate, and so much at stake," Portman said.
🏀 Onetime NBA player Enes (Kanter) Freedom, who's become popular among conservatives for his vocal criticism of China, met with a group of Senate Republicans at the Capitol. 📊 A Politico/Morning Consult poll found the GOP is roughly split over the Republican National Committee's censure of Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), with 40% supporting the move and 32% opposing it. | | | | | | | | 5. Charted: Run for the exits |  Data: OpenSecrets; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios The 2022 midterms will be marked by the largest number of House Democrats leaving their seats since at least the early 1990s — adding yet another complicating factor to the party maintaining its control of the chamber, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports. Why it matters: Double-digit departures from either party during past cycles — 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018 — portended a shift in power in Washington. Between the lines: Not all members are retiring; several have announced they're angling for another office. - But open seats are inherently more competitive, because they typically draw more candidates in each party's primary, as well as more attention and fundraising.
- So far, more Democrats than Republicans have announced they're leaving the U.S. House (22 are retiring, compared to 7 Republicans).
- The parties are similarly represented among the group seeking alternative office (8 Democrats to 7 Republicans).
Don't forget: Democrats had one of their worst midterms in 2010, after Barack Obama was elected president. - 16 Democrats had announced their departure before November.
- One note: The numbers don't include those who left office before the end of their terms. Those who have died or resigned are usually replaced in a special election, or before the general election.
| | | | | | | | 6. Pic du jour |  | | | Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images | | | | The pride of accomplishment — and nomination — is evident in the beaming face of Nina Morrison. - Picked to be a U.S. District Court judge for the Eastern District of New York, she was sworn in for her confirmation hearing with the Senate Judiciary Committee.
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