Tuesday, February 22, 2022

🎤 A mea culpa

Plus: Correction watch | Tuesday, February 22, 2022
 
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Axios Markets
By Matt Phillips and Emily Peck ·Feb 22, 2022

👋 Welcome back, folks! It's Twosday: 2.22.22. 2day is the day 2 make quips about 2.

🚨 Situational awareness: Germany halted the Nord Stream 2 pipeline after the Kremlin ordered troops into eastern Ukraine. (Axios)

Today's newsletter is 1,009 words, 4 minutes.

 
 
1 big thing: How I got inflation wrong
Illustration of a hundred dollar bill featuring Benjamin Franklin with egg on his face

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

It's hard to admit when you've gotten something wrong, especially when, like me, that's never happened to you before, Matt writes.

  • But with prices rising faster and higher than I ever expected — 7.5% over the last year! — it's time to admit it: We really do have honest-to-god inflation.

Why it matters: The path of inflation has clearly emerged as the single most important issue facing investors, policymakers and politicians, many of whom missed it. Figuring out why we were slow to see it coming could make me better at understanding how price dynamics play out.

Flashback: Last July when crude oil prices were collapsing, I wrote: "I think we're really seeing the death throes of the inflation scare." That tweet didn't age well.

  • So how did this happen? I know the markets. I follow the economy. I read the research.
  • Well, as I understand it, here's how:

I believed the bond market. But the bond market was wrong.

  • When I made the wrongheaded pronouncement above, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 1.21%. That low level would have suggested investors expected weak economic growth and piddling inflation over the next decade. (Treasury bond yields typically go up when expectations for growth and inflation rise.)

I underestimated the impact of repeated supply chain disruptions.

  • In 2021, I wrote a lot about wild swings in the prices of commodities such as lumber, cheese and steel as the economy began to recover from the pandemic.
  • The main takeaway of my reporting, as I saw it, was that markets would be able to sort out prices through supply and demand — if given a bit of time without the virus. But we never got that time (thanks, Delta and Omicron).

I disregarded the risks of inflation because they were overhyped for so long.

  • Throughout the entirety of my career covering the financial markets, there have always been people squawking about the risks of inflation.
  • Even during the Great Recession of 2008-09, when the economy was actually fighting deflation — or falling prices — inflation-phobic financial pundits would argue that we were at risk of suffering Weimar-style hyperinflation. (This June 2009 offering from the Wall Street Journal opinion page is a prime example.)

State of play: Having just admitted a major weakness in my prognosticatory powers, I'm not about to make any big predictions. But I'd still be really surprised if inflation continued to surge the way it has been.

Keep reading.

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2. Catch up quick

💰 A massive leak of Credit Suisse documents going back 70 years exposes the hidden wealth of clients involved in criminal activity. (The Guardian)

🌏 President Biden imposed sanctions on Kremlin-backed separatist regions in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized them as independent. (Axios)

📈 Oil nears $100 a barrel on the threat of Ukraine war. (WSJ)

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3. Fed tightening plan comes into focus
Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Fed governor Lael Brainard. Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

 

If you want to know what it looks like when Federal Reserve leaders decide to send a concerted signal about their plans, well, it looks like what took place Friday, Axios' Neil Irwin writes.

  • Comments from Fed governor Lael Brainard and New York Fed president John Williams made clear that the central bank intends to raise interest rates only a quarter-percent at its March meeting, then keep raising them steadily over the rest of the year.

Why it matters: The Fed appears committed to moving decisively but steadily toward tighter money — not moving so quickly as to shock markets or the economy unnecessarily.

The backstory: After a high inflation reading on Feb. 10, markets began to price in a near-certainty that the Fed would raise rates by half a percent in March — something it hasn't done in 22 years. James Bullard, St. Louis Fed president, chimed in, endorsing such a move.

  • Market speculation percolated that the Fed could even stage an emergency meeting and vote to raise rates, rather than wait until its scheduled session March 15-16.
  • A handful of news outlets, including Axios, reported that an emergency rate hike was highly unlikely and that the Fed was still focused on a conventional quarter-point hike rather than something more dramatic.

The latest comments from Williams and Brainard, in effect, make that official.

The details: Williams told reporters that "there's really no kind of compelling argument that you have to be faster right in the beginning" in raising interest rates, and that the Fed can "steadily move up interest rates and reassess."

  • Brainard said at a conference that it will make sense to "initiate a series" of rate increases at the next meeting, and noted that financial markets have already moved in line with the Fed's intentions.

Between the lines: The comments from two of chair Jerome Powell's top lieutenants appeared to be a deliberate effort to steer financial markets away from expecting actions that might seem panicky.

Keep reading.

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4. Charted: Housing boom is also a backlog
Data: FactSet, U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Will Chase/Axios

America doesn't have enough homes for all the people who want to buy them. So the construction sector is getting busy — or at least trying to, Matt writes.

Driving the news: Homebuilding activity has surged, with the number of new housing units under construction soaring to the highest level in nearly 50 years.

Yes, but: Data on housing units currently under construction doesn't tell the whole story, analysts say.

  • Supply chain snarls on everything from gutters to garage doors have led to a massive backlog of houses languishing in the pipeline. (The WSJ recently spelled this out.)

Go deeper.

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5. What we're watching: Correction territory
Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Stocks continue to struggle in the face of higher interest rates, climbing oil prices and the risks that Europe's largest land war since 1945 is about to start, Matt writes.

Driving the news: The S&P 500 closed at its second-lowest level this year on Friday, after falling 0.7%.

  • The broad market index is down 3.7% in February, and 8.8% in 2022.
  • Stocks are down 9.3% since their Jan. 3 record high, putting them within spitting distance of the 10% loss that defines a market "correction."

What to watch: This week may get off to a volatile start — equity futures are weaker this morning as investors digest the escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.

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