| | | | | | | Presented By the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids | | | | Axios AM | | By Mike Allen ·Feb 22, 2022 | | 2️⃣ Happy Twosday ... Tuesday, 2/22/22. And if your watch is set to military time, tonight don't miss 22:22, 2/22/22. - Smart Brevity™ count: 1,485 words ... 5½ minutes. Edited by Zachary Basu.
| | | | | | 1 big thing: War in waiting |  The darker area shows the rebel-held regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, that Putin recognized. Data: Mapbox/OSCE. Map: Will Chase/Axios In a stunning, historically revisionist national address, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that Ukraine has no right to be its own country — and that it's Moscow's duty to protect Russian speakers in Ukrainian territory from a supposed deadly threat posed by Kyiv. - Why it matters: Putin's formal recognition of two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine — followed swiftly by the deployment of Russian "peacekeepers" — was immediately condemned as a violation of the UN Charter and a pretext to launch a war of aggression against Ukraine.
👀 Dave Lawler, author of our twice-weekly newsletter Axios World, sketches what to watch for: 1. Will Putin's "peacekeeping force" deploy only to the territory already controlled by the separatists, or attempt to secure the much larger areas in Ukraine claimed by the two "republics"? - Either scenario could spark a broader conflict. The latter would be a clear declaration of war.
2. How severe and well-coordinated will the initial U.S. and European sanctions be, and what would actually trigger the "massive" sanctions package the U.S., EU and G7 have promised if Putin invades? - A senior U.S. official suggested yesterday that a Russian deployment to the separatist-held territories, where undeclared Russian troops have operated since 2014, was insufficient to trigger the broader sanctions.
3. What will Ukraine's response be, beyond the current attempts to rally international support and convene emergency meetings at the UN and elsewhere? - In a televised address after Putin's announcements, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine doesn't want war and won't fall for Putin's provocations — but also won't hand over the contested Donbas region in the east.
- If Russian troops approach or push beyond the "line of control" in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces would have to decide whether to pull back or stand and fight a military superpower.
4. How will China respond? - Beijing and Moscow have been flaunting their closer relationship. But China has long stressed the importance of sovereignty and territorial integrity — a point Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Saturday when discussing Ukraine.
5. Will Russia's military maneuvers be limited to the east for the time being, or will U.S. warnings that Putin's planning a full-scale invasion targeting Kyiv soon come to fruition? - Some analysts argued that yesterday's gambit was the peak of Putin's escalation. Many others contended it was just one step in a much larger military operation.
🗞️ How it's playing ... |     | | | | | | 2. Axios interview: Preparing for Ukraine in exile | | Ukrainian border guards patrol the Ukrainian-Belarusian border at a checkpoint in Novi Yarylovychi, Ukraine, yesterday. Photo: Oleksandr Ratushniak/AP Robert O'Brien, Donald Trump's former national security adviser, tells Axios the U.S. must prepare to recognize a Ukrainian government in exile in the event Russian troops depose President Volodymyr Zelensky. - Why it matters: While Western attention is focused largely on military developments on Ukraine's borders and how to respond with sanctions, O'Brien is the first former top U.S. official to call for a long-term political plan for whatever comes next.
O'Brien told Axios' Zachary Basu and Jonathan Swan that if Russia invades Kyiv, he doesn't see "any circumstance" in which Zelensky can remain, given U.S. warnings about a Russian "kill list." - He also urged President Biden to publicly vow never to recognize a Russian puppet government in Ukraine.
It wasn't clear whether the Biden administration has begun preparing for such contingencies. The NSC didn't respond to a request for comment. In yesterday's interview, O'Brien compared his proposal to the government-in-exile framework used during World War II, when officials from Poland, Norway, Belgium and other occupied countries relocated to London and maintained diplomatic relations with the Allies. - Funding for a government in exile would likely have to come from foreign aid, including from the European Union, O'Brien said.
O'Brien suggested a framework for lawsuits against Russia for damages caused by the invasion, under a model such as the UN Compensation Commission for Kuwaiti claims against Iraq after the Gulf War. - O'Brien said the West also should support an insurgency to fight back against the Russians in "occupied Ukraine," and potentially help organize elections outside of Ukraine for expats and refugees.
- "You could just create an enormous political, diplomatic, legal headache for the Kremlin," he said.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 3. Living history | | Photo: Sputnik/Alexey Nikolsky/Kremlin via Reuters In Moscow yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signs a historic decree recognizing two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities. Photo: The White House via Reuters President Biden then signed sanctions on the so-called "republics," while promising that more are on the way. 🌐 WashPost editorial, "This is the way the postwar world ends, and the post-Cold War world, too": By the time he was done speaking, Mr. Putin had not only broadcast his intent to disrupt institutions that have kept the peace in Europe, mostly, after 1945 but also laid out the ideological basis for launching a war ... It is wishful thinking to imagine that this conflict stops with Ukraine. | | | | | | | | A message from the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids | | It's time for FDA to protect kids and eliminate flavored e-cigarettes | | |  | | | | Until FDA acts, tobacco companies will continue to hook kids on flavored e-cigarettes loaded with massive doses of nicotine. Each day without action leaves kids at risk. Here's the deal: Kids need FDA to step up and eliminate flavored e-cigarettes now. Find out what's at stake. | | | | | | 4. America's building boom |  Data: FactSet, Census Bureau. Chart: Will Chase/Axios Homebuilding activity has surged, with the number of new housing units under construction soaring to the highest level in nearly 50 years, Axios Markets co-author Matt Phillips writes. - Why it matters: A pipeline of new homes could someday help relieve the pressure of rising housing costs.
Shelter costs, the single biggest driver of consumer price inflation, were up 4.4% over the last year. - Over the past year, nearly 40,000 new jobs were created in residential construction.
Between the lines: Data on housing units currently under construction doesn't tell the whole story. - Supply-chain snarls on everything from gutters to garage doors have led to a massive backlog of houses languishing in the pipeline, as The Wall Street Journal recently spelled out (subscription).
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 5. Dems tune out national news |  Reproduced from Gallup/Knight Foundation. Chart: Axios Visuals A new poll from Gallup and the Knight Foundation finds that younger Democrats are driving a huge decline in national news consumption in the U.S., Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes. - Why it matters: This marks the first time since the study began in early 2018 that Democrats report having less interest in national news than Republicans and independents.
The study found fewer Americans are paying attention to national news "than at any time since early 2018." - Democrats' interest declined the most, with just 34% saying they paid a great deal of attention to national news in 2021, compared to 69% in November 2020.
- The decline among Democrats ages 18-34 is staggering. Roughly a quarter (24%) said they paid a great deal of attention to national news in 2021, compared to 70% in November 2020. Those ages 35-54 also tuned out significantly.
- Independents who lean Democratic are also paying less attention to national news than independents who lean Republican.
Between the lines: Partisans generally tend to tune in more to national news when the opposing party is in office, according to Gallup. - But news fatigue is also hitting Republicans, who showed a marginal decline in interest in national news.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 6. Mike Bloomberg warns of "wipeout" |  | | | A rally Feb. 12 in support of the San Francisco school board recall. Photo: Stephen Lam/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images | | | | Michael Bloomberg, former New York mayor and Democratic presidential candidate, today has an apocalyptic warning for his party: - "[A]bsent an immediate course correction, the party is headed for a wipeout in November, up and down the ballot."
Bloomberg, in an editorial for Bloomberg Opinion, cites Democratic research that "voters perceive the party as being too 'focused on the culture wars' — from renaming schools to defunding the police": But the advice that party leaders are giving members of Congress — to "correct the record" when Republicans criticize them on schools and culture — isn't going to cut it. Voters need to hear from Democrats that schools remained closed for too long, and that improving schools means closing achievement gaps, not eliminating standards. Pointing to last week's school-board recall, Bloomberg concluded: "The earthquake that shook San Francisco needs to shake up our party, before voters do it themselves in November." | | | | | | | | 7. Remembering Dr. Paul Farmer | Paul Farmer (R) stands on the Tengbeh Town Bridge with Ibrahim Kamara (L) in Freetown, Sierra Leone, in 2015. Photo: Jon Lascher/Partners in Health Dr. Paul Farmer — a physician and humanitarian who provided health care to millions of impoverished people worldwide, and co-founded the Boston-based global nonprofit Partners in Health — died at 62. - He passed away in his sleep from an acute cardiac event while in Rwanda, where he had been teaching, AP reports.
Farmer was a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and chief of the division of global health equity at Brigham and Women's Hospital. - He wrote extensively on health, human rights and social inequality.
Go deeper. | | | | | | | | 8. 📷 Parting shot: Bo on a pedestal | | Photo: Jinx Just for a day, Bo Obama — the popular former White House resident with distinctive white chest and front paws — got a life-size statue at the Lincoln Memorial, as part of a Presidents' Day stunt by Jinx dog food. - Michelle Obama told AP in 2016 about the family's pair of Portuguese water dogs, Bo and Sunny: "Everybody wants to see them and take pictures ... I get a memo at the beginning of the month with a request for their schedules, and I have to approve their appearances."
| | | | | | | | A message from the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids | | Big Tobacco targets our kids — FDA must act to stop them | | |  | | | | Over two million kids are using e-cigarettes, putting their health at risk. The reason: Tobacco companies hook kids with flavored e-cigarettes loaded with massive doses of nicotine. The solution: FDA must eliminate flavored e-cigarettes without further delay. Learn more. | | | | 📬 Sign up here for your own personal copy of Axios AM and Axios PM. |  | Bring the strength of Smart Brevity® to your team — more effective communications, powered by Axios HQ. | | | |
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