| | | | | |  | | By Paul McLeary, Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, during a ceremony at the Pentagon, Thursday, Nov. 18, 2021, in Washington. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint PROGRAMMING NOTE: National Security Daily won't publish from Mon., Dec. 20 to Fri., Dec. 31. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Mon., Jan. 3. Happy Holidays! Russia has pushed more troops into position near Ukraine's border since last week's call between President JOE BIDEN and Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN, Ukraine's Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV told our own PAUL MCLEARY in a weekend phone call. Reznikov says there are now around 100,000 Russian troops stretching from Crimea in the south up through his country's northwest border with Belarus, a dispersed force that could attack on several fronts at once with artillery, tanks, and overwhelming airpower. Any invasion would be "a disaster" for both sides, Reznikov said, leading to up to 5 million Ukrainian refugees fleeing fighting and plenty of casualties on both sides. "It will be Ukrainian blood, it will be Russian blood, and a lot of soldiers from Russia will come to home in coffins, and Facebook, Instagram, Telegram channels will show it. It will be a disaster." The government in Kyiv is especially concerned about its 15 nuclear power plants, which provide about half of the country's energy. Any shooting war inside the country puts those sites at risk, Reznikov said, saying the plants are like a "nuclear bomb. Chernobyl, Fukushima. Is it real for Europeans?" Speaking to Radio Liberty this month, Gen. OLEKSANDR PAVLYUK , commander of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation, said his country was ready to "start a partisan war" if Russian forces begin to overwhelm Ukraine's active duty military. Reznikov wasn't quite so stark, but when asked directly about the prospect of an insurgency, said he's "absolutely sure that we will fight to defend our lands, our lives, and our future, our kids." The Ukrainian Army has about 250,000 active duty troops in its ranks, he told McCleary, but "we have 200,000 reservists in territorial platoons, and we have 400,000 veterans of this Ukrainian-Russian hybrid war. 400,000 … just do the calculation." The Russian arc of troops dotted along hundreds of miles of Ukraine's border is an attempt to spread Kyiv's attention and thin out the Ukrainian armed forces, which are now forced to plan for multiple contingencies at once. Reznikov said Ukraine isn't the end goal for Putin, however. Ukraine is the "geographical center of Europe," so if there is war, "the war will come in Europe, not only in Ukraine." He thinks that Putin isn't so much interested in Ukraine itself as he is in showing Europe what Russia can do. "We are just a part of it, it's a square on a chess board" of larger Russian ambitions. | | | | JOIN TUESDAY FOR A WOMEN RULE 2021 REWIND AND A LOOK AHEAD AT 2022: Congress is sprinting to get through a lengthy and challenging legislative to-do list before the end of the year that has major implications for women's rights. Join Women Rule editor Elizabeth Ralph and POLITICO journalists Laura Barrón-López, Eleanor Mueller, Elena Schneider and Elana Schor for a virtual roundtable that will explore the biggest legislative and policy shifts in 2021 affecting women and what lies ahead in 2022. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | SECRET U.S. STRIKE CELL REPORTEDLY KILLED CIVILIANS: The New York Times continues its brilliant reporting on the Pentagon's yearslong coverups of responsibility for civilian harm during war. Sunday's story by DAVE PHILIPPS , ERIC SCHMITT and MARK MAZZETTI centers on Talon Anvil, a unit fighting ISIS in Syria from 2014 to 2019. "[I]n the process of hammering a vicious enemy" with tens of thousands of bombs, "the shadowy force sidestepped safeguards and repeatedly killed civilians, according to multiple current and former military and intelligence officials," they reported. "[P]eople who worked with the strike cell say in the rush to destroy enemies, it circumvented rules imposed to protect noncombatants, and alarmed its partners in the military and the C.I.A. by killing people who had no role in the conflict: farmers trying to harvest, children in the street, families fleeing fighting, and villagers sheltering in buildings." "Every year that the strike cell operated, the civilian casualty rate in Syria increased significantly, according to LARRY LEWIS, a former Pentagon and State Department adviser who was one of the authors of a 2018 Defense Department report on civilian harm. Mr. Lewis, who has viewed the Pentagon's classified civilian casualty data for Syria, said the rate was 10 times that of similar operations he tracked in Afghanistan," they wrote. Officials the three contacted denied any wrongdoing or recklessness by the Crocs-and-Birkenstocks-wearing unit. But they still report that the number of civilian casualties rose after Gen. STEPHEN TOWNSEND, now the U.S. Africa Command chief, at the time moved strike authority down the chain of command. "Under the new rules, the strike cell was still required to follow a process of intelligence gathering and risk mitigation to limit harm to civilians before launching a strike. … But the Delta operators were under enormous pressure to protect allied ground troops and move the offensive forward, the former task force member said, and felt hobbled by the safeguards. So in early 2017, they found a way to strike more quickly: self-defense," they wrote. The reporting is leading some activists to push for further oversight of U.S. military operations. "For far too long and despite its own rhetoric to the contrary, the United States has failed to live up to its legal and moral commitments to the protection of civilians, with devastating results for civilians and no meaningful accountability. In light of yet another report detailing an unacceptable disregard for civilian life, we repeat our calls for urgent congressional oversight, transparent investigations, accountability and structural policy changes," FEDERICO BORELLO, executive director of the Center for Civilians in Conflict, told NatSec Daily. Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY today announced that no one will be held accountable for the errant drone strike in August in Kabul that killed 10 civilians , including seven children. The strike was "a breakdown in process and execution in procedural events, not the result of negligence, not the result of misconduct, not the result of poor leadership," he told reporters today. TAIWAN MINISTER FEED CUT OVER MAP: An odd thing happened at the Summit for Democracy last week: A Taiwanese minister had her feed cut because she displayed a map showing Taiwan as a sovereign nation from China, Reuters' HUMEYRA PAMUK, MICHAEL MARTINA and DAVID BRUNNSTROM reported. "Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that Friday's slide show by Taiwanese Digital Minister AUDREY TANG caused consternation among U.S. officials after the map appeared in her video feed for about a minute," they wrote. "The sources … said the video feed showing Tang was cut during a panel discussion and replaced with audio only — at the behest of the White House." Taiwan got an invite to the proceedings and not China, prompting the U.S. to label attendees as governments, not countries. But Tang's presentation labeled Taiwan in green and China in red — signaling the two are independent nations — which goes against America's "one China" policy. The State Department told Reuters that ending Tang's screen share was "an honest mistake." But an on-screen disclaimer later appeared stating: "Any opinions expressed by individuals on this panel are those of the individual, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States government." A spokesperson for the National Security Council denied the White House played a hand in ending Tang's video appearance: "At no time did the White House direct that Minister Tang's video feed be cut," the official said. The Washington Post's JOSH ROGIN reported that the decision to end the feed happened at the technical level at the State Department. U.S. PARTIES SPLIT ON CHINA: A new survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows that Democrats and Republicans are split sharply on their attitudes toward China. While 42 percent of Republicans consider China an adversary with which America is in conflict, only 17 percent of Democrats say so. Meanwhile, 67 percent of Republicans say that limiting China's global influence should be a very important U.S. foreign policy goal compared to 39 percent of Democrats. But a slightly larger sum of Democrats — 52 percent — say that the U.S. has a stronger military than China; only 45 percent of Republicans agree with that sentiment. And 41 percent of Republicans say that China is the greater economic power, compared to a little more than 35 percent of Democrats. "Across a range of questions, Republicans evince a greater degree of concern about Beijing's policies and intentions and in turn are more likely to support policies aimed at decoupling the two nations in the economic, scientific, and academic realms," wrote report authors CRAIG KAFURA and DINA SMELTZ. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today, so you can protect what matters most.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate in a different technological era and are behind the digital connectivity found in everyday life. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating the adoption of leading-edge networking and related technologies into our national defense enterprise, while enhancing the performance of our major platforms to provide unmatched situational awareness, command and control across land, sea, air, space and cyber. Learn More | | | POSSIBLE DEAL ON END-OF-WAR DECLARATION: South Korean President MOON JAE-IN said that the two Koreas, the United States and China have agreed "in principle" to formally close out the Korean War of the 1950s via an end-of-war declaration. But North Korea still won't sign anything until the United States ends perceived hostilities toward Pyongyang, Moon added while in Australia. "And because of that, we are not able to sit down for a negotiation on the declarations between South and North Korea, and those between North Korea and [the] United States," he said. "[W]e hope that talks will be initiated. We are making efforts towards that." Experts quickly noted that what Moon said isn't new, but rather a rearticulation of a position the North Koreans themselves have already laid out. They also observed that Moon's time in office ends in March, suggesting he's angling to make something happen before his term is finished. Moon is "pushing a narrative," said JENNY TOWN, director of the 38 North program at the Stimson Center. IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | IRAN LOOMS OVER ISRAEL-UAE SUMMIT: Iran is a big part of Prime Minister NAFTALI BENNETT 's agenda this week, as he becomes the first Israeli leader to visit the United Arab Emirates; the two nations normalized relations under the Trump administration's Abraham Accords last September. Bennett's meeting Monday with Crown Prince Sheikh MOHAMMED BIN ZAYED AL NAHYAN, the UAE's de facto leader, comes a week after Abu Dhabi sent an envoy to Tehran and as U.S. officials warn Emirati banks about compliance with sanctions on Iran. Israeli Ambassador AMIR HAYEK told Israel's Army Radio that Bennett "did not only come here solely to address the Iranian issue," but the Israel Hayom newspaper reported that the prime minister was expected to brief the crown prince on intelligence regarding Iranian-supplied militias and drones in the region. According to Reuters, "Hayek said military sales to UAE are in the works, though Israeli industry sources say advanced Israeli air defence systems have yet to be offered." ISRAELI STRIKE TARGETED SYRIAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS SITES: An airstrike conducted in June by the Israel Defense Forces against three Syrian military facilities "was part of a campaign to stop what Israeli officials believe was a nascent attempt by Syria to restart its production of deadly nerve agents," per The Washington Post's JOBY WARRICK and SOUAD MEKHENNET. The Post — citing "four current and former U.S. and Western intelligence officials with access to sensitive intelligence at the time of the strikes" — reports that Israeli officials "ordered the raid, and a similar one a year earlier, based on intelligence suggesting that Syria's government was acquiring chemical precursors and other supplies needed to rebuild the chemical-weapons capability that it had ostensibly given up eight years ago." As Warrick and Mekhennet explain, "[t]he prospect of a reconstituted chemical weapons program in Syria is regarded as a direct threat to the security of Israel, and perhaps other neighboring countries." And while Syrian President BASHAR ASSAD "famously used chemical weapons against his own citizens dozens of times since the start of the country's civil war, Syria's once-vast chemical arsenal was originally intended for use in a future war with Israel." HONG KONG TYCOON CONVICTED IN VIGIL CRACKDOWN: JIMMY LAI, the Hong Kong entrepreneur and activist, was sentenced Monday to 13 months in jail for inciting people to participate in the 2020 Tiananmen candlelight vigil, which has been prohibited for the past two years ostensibly because of the coronavirus pandemic, per The Associated Press. The event's ban by Chinese authorities is widely viewed as yet another curb on civil liberties in the semi-autonomous city. Lai, 73, is the founder of the shuttered pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, which was forced to halt operations in June "after police froze $2.3 million of its assets, searched its office and arrested five top editors and executives. Hong Kong police also accused the individuals of "foreign collusion to endanger national security," according to the AP. In addition to Lai, seven other people were convicted by the District Court on similar charges and received sentences of up to 14 months — including lawyer CHOW HANG-TUNG, former reporter GWYNETH HO and LEE CHEUK-YAN, the former chair of the defunct Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China. More than a dozen activists have already been convicted in relation to the vigil. | | | |   | | | | | | 'SEVERE RISK' FROM NEW VULNERABILITY: JEN EASTERLY, the director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, released a statement Saturday warning of a new "log4j" vulnerability. "This vulnerability, which is being widely exploited by a growing set of threat actors, presents an urgent challenge to network defenders given its broad use," Easterly said. "[T]his vulnerability poses a severe risk. We will only minimize potential impacts through collaborative efforts between government and the private sector." "CISA is working closely with our public and private sector partners to proactively address a critical vulnerability affecting products containing the log4j software library," she added. "It's a design failure of catastrophic proportions," says FREE WORTLEY, CEO of the open source data security platform LunaSec, told Wired's LILY HAY NEWMAN.
| | | AUSTRALIA AND ROK'S $700M DEAL: South Korea and Australia inked a $700 million defense deal for Hanwha to build 30 self-propelled howitzers and 15 armored ammunition resupply vehicles. It's Australia's first-ever major defense contract with an Asian nation. "The contract that we have signed today, I think, speaks volumes about what we believe are the capabilities of the Korean defense industry," Australian Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON said, noting the contract could create around 300 jobs at Hanwha's Australian division. Delivery is expected between 2025 and 2027. ROK President Moon became the first foreign leader to visit Australia since the pandemic, highlighting the growing importance of that bilateral relationship.
| | | LAWMAKERS IN UKRAINE: A bipartisan delegation of five House members is returning from Ukraine after visiting with military officials and observing military exercises — a trip that comes at a precarious moment for the Eastern European country. "Ukraine needs our help NOW to defend itself against a Russian invasion. The Biden Administration can no longer withhold lethal aid to the Ukrainian military with the hope of 'not provoking' Putin," tweeted Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), along with a picture of himself with fellow lawmakers and a Ukrainian military official. "Serious sanctions and lethal aid should be put in place now to raise costs [to] deter this invasion, rather than threatening consequences AFTER an invasion." Others on the trip included Reps. JOE WILSON (R-S.C.), SALUD CARBAJAL (D-Calif.), RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) and SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.).
| | | TWEAKING BIDEN'S TAIWAN POLICY: The Center for the National Interest's PAUL HEER got experts talking this weekend with a piece arguing the United States has made subtle rhetorical shifts placing Taiwan closer to the center of its Indo-Pacific strategy — a move he says is doing more diplomatic harm than good. Citing last week's congressional testimony by top Pentagon and State Department Asia hands ELY RATNER and DANIEL KRITENBRINK, Heer wrote the administration made clear "a judgment that Taiwan's reunification with the mainland cannot be allowed under any circumstances." The two U.S. officials "essentially make the case that Washington is opposed to even peaceful unification of Taiwan with the mainland, because the island's autonomy from Chinese control is critical to vital U.S. interests and regional security." In Heer's mind, the United States has staked out a "one China, one Taiwan" policy that could provoke Beijing into a forceful takeover of the democratic island. Thus, he has two requests for the administration and the broader Washington national security sphere: First, make clear to China that America's policy "does not include support for Taiwan's permanent separation from the mainland." Second, "contemplate whether there is any conceivable form of reunification between Taiwan and the mainland that would not be deemed inimical to U.S. vital interests and security." | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today, so you can protect what matters most.
For generations, customers have counted on Lockheed Martin to help them overcome their most complex challenges. To align with the priorities of our customers in the decades ahead, Lockheed Martin has developed a concept for accelerating American and allied military modernization and preserving global deterrence called 21st Century Warfare.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate in a different technological era and are behind the digital connectivity found in everyday life. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating the adoption of leading-edge networking and related technologies into our national defense enterprise, while enhancing the performance of our major platforms.
With a portfolio that spans every branch of the military, Lockheed Martin's unique insights into enabling joint all-domain operations helps us build the technologies that enable unmatched situational awareness, command and control across all domains. Learn More | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: WILL RUGER will be the new president of the American Institute for Economic Research after eight years as vice president for research and policy at the Charles Koch Institute and vice president for foreign policy at Stand Together. He starts his new job on Jan. 24, 2022. DAN CALDWELL will now head Stand Together's foreign policy efforts. — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft has added three new members to its board effective immediately: KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL, JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS and Pastor MICHAEL MCBRIDE. Two others will join the research staff in January: WILLIAM HARTUNG and BEN FREEMAN. — Army Command Sgt. Maj. ROBERT V. ABERNETHY has been selected to replace Air Force Chief Master Sgt. PHILLIP L. EASTON as command senior enlisted leader for U.S. European Command, Patch Barracks, Stuttgart, Germany. Abernethy is currently assigned as command sergeant major, U.S. Army Europe and Africa, Wiesbaden, Germany.
| | | — KIM TONG-HYUNG, The Associated Press: "North Korea's Kim at critical crossroads decade into rule" — RICHARD HAASS and DAVID SACKS, Foreign Affairs: "The Growing Danger of U.S. Ambiguity on Taiwan" — CHOE SANG-HUN, The New York Times: "South Korea Has Long Wanted Nuclear Subs. A New Reactor Could Open a Door." | | | — Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS hits the road for a weeklong swing through Michigan, Colorado, Hawaii, California and Nebraska. She'll visit a slew of combatant commands, including U.S. Northern Command, Strategic Command, Space Command and Indo-Pacific Command. The Pentagon's No. 2 also will make stops at Space Force, Air National Guard and Navy bases and meet with lawmakers, per the Defense Department. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:45 a.m.: "China's Power: Up for Debate 2021 — with ZHOU BO, STEVE DAINES, SETH G. JONES and BONNY LIN" — The Project on Middle East Democracy, 10 a.m.: "Can Tunisia's Democracy Survive? — with AMINE GHALI, AMNA GUELLALI, AMY HAWTHORNE, MONICA MARKS, STEPHEN MCINERNEY and CHRIS MURPHY" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — DONALD ARMIN BLOME, ERIC M. GARCETTI and AMY GUTMANN" — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: " Biennial Lecture and Dialogue of the Brown Capital Management Africa Forum — with EDDIE C. BROWN, MARK GREEN, WAMKELE MENE and MONDE MUYANGWA" — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11 a.m.: " The Path Forward: Realizing the DoD Joint Cloud — with MIKE MADSEN, THOMAS PARKER, BENJAMIN RING, RENATA SPINKS and SHARON WOODS" — The Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: " The ACRS Oral History Project: An Exploration into the Arms Control and Regional Security Working Group — with CHEN KANE, PATRICIA LEWIS, HANNA NOTTE and CHRISTIAN F. OSTERMANN" — Bloomberg Technology Summit, 11:10 a.m.: " Pandemic Powers: Tech's Opportunities and Challenges — with JOE ATKINSON, RAY BAJAJ, DAVE JOHNSON, ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS and BRAD STONE and more" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: " U.S.-China Health Security Cooperation: Time is of the Essence — with XIAOQING BOYNTON, TOM FRIEDEN, YANZHONG HUANG, SCOTT KENNEDY, J. STEPHEN MORRISON and DEBORAH SELIGSOHN" — The National Defense Industrial Association, 12 p.m.: " State of The Art Heterogeneous Integrated Packaging Awareness Day — with KEVIN ANDERSON, DARREN CRUM, BEN ESPOSITO, SAVERIO FAZZARI, BRETT HAMILTON, TED JONES, DAVID KEHLET, PETER R. O'DONNELL, JOHN SOTIR and CODY WAGNER" — The Center for a New American Security, 1 p.m.: " Fireside Chat: General DAVID H. BERGER, Commandant of the Marine Corps — with STACIE PETTYJOHN" — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: "Defense One TV: JADC2 and the Future Warfighter — with COREY BRUMSEY, GEORGE JACKSON, DOUG JONES, NOAH 'SPOOL' SPATARO and PATRICK TUCKER" — The McCain Institute, 1 p.m.: "Improving NATO's Public Image and Building Awareness of the MDM Threat — with PAUL FAGAN, JAMIE FLY, HARRY NEDELCU and LAURA THORNTON" — The Israel Policy Forum, 2 p.m.: "End-of-Year Reflections, New Year Predictions: Israeli-Palestinian Affairs in 2021 and 2022 — with SHIRA EFRON and MICHAEL KOPLOW" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with ENOH T. EBONG and OREN E. WHYCHE-SHAW" — The Atlantic Council, 3 p.m.: " Charting Course: Next Steps for Maritime Cybersecurity With Allies and Partners — with GARY KESSLER, ANGUS KING, SEAN KLINE, NINA KOLLARS, JOSIE LONG, JOHN W. MAUGER and BARRY PAVEL" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: " The Road to the 2022 Summit of the Americas: Vaccine Diplomacy and Engagement — with KATHERINE E. BLISS, MARIA LUISA BOYCE, ELIZABETH FOX, ALFONSO JOSÉ QUIÑÓNEZ LEMUS, DANIEL F. RUNDE and WILLIAM R. STEIGER" — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 4 p.m.: " Engage & Connect Series — with DEWAINE BEARD, KATHLEEN COWLES and MAHEEN MIRZA" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who often cuts our video feed just for fun. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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