News: All eyes on the Joes

Monday, December 13, 2021

All eyes on the Joes

Dec 13, 2021

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By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

NO PRESSURE, MR. PRESIDENT — President JOE BIDEN is set to speak with Sen. JOE MANCHIN as early as today in what Hill sources tell us will be a make-or-break moment for passing the Build Back Better Act (BBB) before Christmas.

Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has been adamant that his chamber will clear the party's $1.7 trillion social spending package before senators leave for the holidays. Yet everyone knows that won't happen without the stubborn West Virginia Democrat — and Democrats are looking for some presidential arm-twisting to get him there.

The situation is giving us flashbacks to the two times Speaker NANCY PELOSI set fall deadlines for passing BBB through the House — then looked to the White House to help deliver votes. Biden, however, had other ideas, preferring to take his time. WSJ has more on the meeting of Joes

POSSIBLE PROBLEMS FOR MANCHIN: On Friday, the CBO issued a score showing that if programs in the bill were extended for a full decade, as many expect they would eventually be, the cost of the legislation would add about $3 trillion to the deficit. Democratic leaders have been deriding the score as "fake," noting that their legislation includes sunsets on programs after a couple of years. But Manchin has called such a score the "real" cost of the programs — and it turns out he was the one who asked Republicans to have it commissioned all along.

"Joe Manchin came to me and he said, 'I think this bill is full of gimmicks that these programs won't go away, Lindsey, and if you [CBO] score them, I think the bill will double,'" Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) told "Fox News Sunday."

Then there's inflation, another top-of-mind concern for Manchin. Friday's economic data showing inflation at a near 40-year high won't help matters. Neither will a poll commissioned by the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors and set to be released today. The data, shared with Playbook in advance, shows that nearly two-thirds of West Virginia voters think BBB will make inflation worse and a slightly larger share think Congress "should slow down and get the Build Back Better Act right." Read the polling memo here

TIME NOT ON DEMS' SIDE: It's not just Manchin that Schumer has to worry about. This week, his chamber will be tied up for the first part of the week with the National Defense Authorization Act and voting to raise the debt ceiling. The full BBB bill text hasn't even been released; once it is, the parliamentarian is still working through the so-called Byrd bath ensuring each provision complies with the rules of reconciliation.

Last but not least are the still-unresolved disputes over key BBB provisions: Senators are still haggling over the state and local tax deduction, paid family leave and climate policies. As our Hill team reports this morning , Schumer has been trying to use the expiring enhanced child tax credit to up the pressure on his members to get this done. But so far, all signs point to BBB getting kicked into 2022, and Democrats pressing their luck that they can close the deal in an election year. We'll see what Biden and Schumer have up their sleeves.

Related: "Old St. Chuck? Schumer under pressure to deliver by Christmas," by Burgess Everett

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

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COLOR US SKEPTICAL — CNN's Isaac Dovere reported Sunday that Pelosi will file to run for reelection next year and might even try to stay in leadership in 2022. The first part doesn't surprise us. When PAUL RYAN was considering retiring back when, some GOP House members advised him to do the same: run again even though he had no intention of serving, so he wouldn't make himself a lame duck or set off a monthslong leadership scramble to replace him. And then retire after the election. Ryan declined, saying it would be dishonest for him to do so, and went public with his plans to leave Washington.

But Democrats on the Hill have doubted for a while that Pelosi will do the same. Announcing an early retirement might undermine her fundraising in a critical midterm year, or make it even more difficult to corral her increasingly diverse caucus.

It's the part about Pelosi staying in leadership that has us puzzled. The speaker promised 2022 would be her last year leading House Democrats, and her members are eager for new blood. Plus, it's hard to imagine Pelosi being content as minority leader should the GOP flip the House.

So what's likely going on here? We — and multiple House Democratic sources we texted with Sunday night — read this as an effort by Pelosi world to tamp down constant speculation about her retirement, which her team doesn't like discussing. Either way, there are some interesting nuggets from the story:

— House Majority Whip JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) confirms he won't run for the top spot if Pelosi retires, which most people assumed but he has never said publicly. "At some point, I want to go to a rocking chair. At some point I want to have more time to play golf," he told Dovere.

— House Democratic Caucus Chair HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.) has in talks with colleagues "been citing Pelosi's top-down, insular approach on infrastructure as part of what Democrats must change going forward."

— And remember the weekslong standoff between Pelosi and Congressional Progressive Caucus leader PRAMILA JAYAPAL over the infrastructure bill? The CNN story says, Pelosi "gave the Washington state Democrat the silent treatment for several days, according to several lawmakers who heard of it from the shunned colleague."

WHAT'S MORE LIKELY NEXT YEAR is a Jeffries-led Democratic caucus. Our Heather Caygle and Olivia Beavers have a story this morning about the duo most Hill insiders expect to run the House after the midterms: KEVIN MCCARTHY as speaker, and Jeffries as minority leader. The two once had a cordial relationship, but it turned icy after Jan. 6.

MEDIA MUSICAL CHAIRS — The sudden exit of CHRIS WALLACE from Fox News has set the rumor mill churning about why he suddenly left for CNN+ — and who will replace him on "Fox News Sunday." AP reports that "until a successor is named, Fox said Wallace will be replaced by a rotating series of guest anchors, including BRET BAIER, JOHN ROBERTS, SHANNON BREAM, MARTHA MACCALLUM, NEIL CAVUTO, DANA PERINO and BILL HEMMER. " We're told HARRIS FAULKNER and national security correspondent JENNIFER GRIFFIN will also be filling in.

But the "why" is what has Washington insiders abuzz. Wallace, who's been with the network for 18 years, said on his show Sunday that he was simply ready to try something new. But WaPo's Erik Wemple and others are pointing to the NPR report in November that Wallace objected to TUCKER CARLSON's series "Patriot Purge," which cast the Jan. 6 rioters in a sympathetic light. Wallace's move follows the recent departure of two longtime conservative commentators, STEPHEN HAYES and JONAH GOLDBERG, who left the network over that issue.

Either way, Wallace's exit is a major blow to Fox. Conservative TV host S.E. CUPP said on CNN on Sunday that when the network was criticized for being too cozy with DONALD TRUMP and Republicans, "Fox News used people like SHEPARD [SMITH] and Chris and Bret Baier to say, 'Look, we have a news division.'" (Smith left in 2019.)

CNN, meanwhile, is assembling some big names for its new online streaming service that will launch next year. In addition to Wallace, they've snagged MSNBC's KASIE HUNT.

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BIDEN'S MONDAY:

— 10 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 11 a.m.: Biden will get a briefing on the recent tornadoes from DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, FEMA Administrator DEANNE CRISWELL and homeland security adviser LIZ SHERWOOD-RANDALL, with a pool spray at the top.

— 1:15 p.m.: Biden will sign an executive order on government services.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY:

— 10:20 a.m.: The VP will get a briefing on electric vehicle investments in the bipartisan infrastructure law and the reconciliation bill at the Brandywine Maintenance Facility in Prince George's County, Md., where she'll deliver remarks at 11 a.m. National climate adviser GINA MCCARTHY and Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM will also speak.

— 3:30 p.m.: Harris will lead a meeting of CEOs to talk about private-sector investment in Central America, with a pool spray at the top. (More on this below.)

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2 p.m.

The HOUSE is out. The Jan. 6 committee will meet at 7 p.m. to mark up a resolution to hold MARK MEADOWS in contempt of Congress.

The SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up SAMANTHA ELLIOTT's judicial nomination. At 5:30 p.m., the Senate will vote on LUCY HAERAN KOH's judicial nomination.

BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD:

— Tuesday: The Bidens, Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will go to a DNC holiday celebration.

— Thursday: Biden will award the Medal of Honor to Sgt. 1st Class ALWYN CASHE, Sgt. 1st Class CHRISTOPHER CELIZ and Master Sgt. EARL PLUMLEE, with first lady JILL BIDEN, Harris and Emhoff also attending.

— Friday: Biden will head to Orangeburg, S.C., to deliver the fall commencement address at South Carolina State University.

JOIN TUESDAY FOR A WOMEN RULE 2021 REWIND AND A LOOK AHEAD AT 2022: Congress is sprinting to get through a lengthy and challenging legislative to-do list before the end of the year that has major implications for women's rights. Join Women Rule editor Elizabeth Ralph and POLITICO journalists Laura Barrón-López, Eleanor Mueller, Elena Schneider and Elana Schor for a virtual roundtable that will explore the biggest legislative and policy shifts in 2021 affecting women and what lies ahead in 2022. REGISTER HERE.

PLAYBOOK READS

The front steps of a demolished house are pictured. | AP Photo

PHOTO OF THE DAY: The front steps are shown where a house stood in Dawson Springs, Ky., on Sunday, Dec. 12, after a tornado tore through the town last week. The death toll in the state has officially reached 50, with more expected, per the Louisville Courier Journal. | Michael Clubb/AP Photo

THE WHITE HOUSE

THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING POLL NUMBERS — A new ABC/Ipsos poll found Americans feeling down on the Biden presidency, with especially bad numbers for the president on inflation (69% disapprove), the economic recovery, crime and gun violence. He still retains narrow majority approval on his handling of the pandemic.

HARRIS ON IMMIGRATION — Harris this morning is set to announce more than $540 million in commitments to invest in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras from companies and organizations including CARE International, PepsiCo, Mastercard and Microsoft. That's in addition to $750 million in private-sector money she announced in May.

Earlier this year Harris took on the assignment of stemming immigration from Northern Triangle countries by addressing root causes, such as finding ways to promote economic opportunities so people don't feel the need to leave their countries. The administration says these kinds of investments are part of a broader effort to slow immigration from the three countries.

"The vice president recognized that in order to do what we need to do over the long term for Central America, it needs to be bigger than the U.S. government," a senior White House official said in a call with reporters Sunday.

ALL POLITICS

DEMS' CLOUDY OUTLOOK IN THE SUNSHINE STATE — The only thing more consistent than Democrats narrowly losing in Florida is Democrats worrying that they're going to narrowly lose in Florida. The latest story to this effect is from AP's Anthony Izaguirre in Tallahassee, where Dems are now starting to fear that the national party and donors will just write off the state. STEVE SCHALE tells the AP that Democrats in the state need to register and organize on a more sustained basis, especially among South Florida Hispanics. "We're not going to be outworked by the other side this year, I promise you that," said state party chair MANNY DIAZ.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A Zoom fundraiser Thursday for nine front-line House members, sponsored by the DCCC and hosted by Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.), raised more than $500,000 to be split between the members. The members were CINDY AXNE (Iowa), SHARICE DAVIDS (Kan.), ANDY KIM (N.J.), MIKE LEVIN (Calif.), LUCY MCBATH (Ga.), MIKIE SHERRILL (N.J.), ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (Va.), HALEY STEVENS (Mich.) and LAUREN UNDERWOOD (Ill.).

CONGRESS

FORTENBERRY VS. FBI — Josh Gerstein has a fascinating exploration of criticism of the FBI's tactics in landing an indictment of Rep. JEFF FORTENBERRY (R-Neb.). The "arguably deceptive" practices law enforcement used to ensnare Fortenberry, he writes, echo those used in the MICHAEL FLYNN case — but now are under even more fire because of separation-of-powers concerns between the branches of government. Josh also delves into the case's background, its political dimensions and experts' evaluation of its strength.

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POLICY CORNER

INFLATION NATION — One complicated aspect of tackling inflation is that people's expectations of inflation can be a factor in the longevity of higher prices themselves. WSJ's Nick Timiraos and Gwynn Guilford examine the psychology of inflation, and report that keeping expectations low "is one reason the Federal Reserve is likely to signal a faster end to bond-buying and a quicker start to raising interest rates at its meeting this week."

— "Inflation is painfully high, but some relief may be coming," AP

CLIMATE FILES — The Atlantic's Russell Berman takes an interesting look at the policy debate over overhauling flood insurance to make homeowners on the water pay more — essentially pricing in climate risk (and putting the burden on the wealthy, or the literal coastal elite). It's "one of the most progressive changes that President Joe Biden can make without new approval from Congress," he writes. But it's running into opposition from New Jersey Democrats like Sen. BOB MENENDEZ, who might try to wedge changes into a government funding bill — as well as concerns that it could end up pushing poorer people out of beachfront communities.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BLOCKBUSTER INVESTIGATION — The weekend's biggest expose is this barnburner from NYT's Dave Philipps, Eric Schmitt and Mark Mazzetti on a secretive U.S. strike cell that repeatedly skirted rules and killed civilians in the fight against the Islamic State. Following up their reporting last month on a specific 2019 strike from the Talon Anvil unit that killed dozens of Syrian civilians — a story that prompted a Pentagon investigation — the NYT now zooms out to chronicle "a pattern of reckless strikes." Multiple officials' warnings went unheeded, they report, and some of the unit's members even refused to take part in certain strikes. (Military leaders deny some of the allegations and say they did their best to avoid civilian casualties.)

ANNALS OF DIPLOMACY — The White House forced a Taiwanese minister's feed at last week's democracy summit to be cut from video to just audio after she showed a map with Taiwan in a different color than China, Reuters' Humeyra Pamuk, Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom report. The move aligned with official U.S. policy not to support Taiwanese independence, but it also put the Biden administration in an awkward spot at a summit promoting democracy. Reuters reports that the decision prompted a flurry of recriminations among U.S. officials and with Taiwan. (Everybody officially denies this.)

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

DRIP, DRIP — The latest nugget of information from the Jan. 6 committee? Then-White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS said in an email the day before the Capitol riot that the National Guard was on standby to "protect pro Trump people," though Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu note that the context is unclear. The committee's full 51-page document contains news about plenty of other Meadows text exchanges leading up to Jan. 6 and related to the 2020 election aftermath. Read it here

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

PLAYBOOKERS

Hillary Clinton predicted that Donald Trump will run again in 2024 — and it "could be the end" of democracy in the U.S. if he wins.

Zephyr Teachout dropped out of the race for New York A.G., after Tish James decided to stay put.

Her Serene Highness Princess Rita Boncompagni Ludovisi of Italy — formerly Rita Jenrette, ex-wife of former South Carolina Democratic Rep. John Jenrette, who was convicted of bribery in the Abscam scandal — is selling her late husband's villa, per Forbes. The price: $532 million. Attn: Zillow.

SPOTTED: Billy Porter on Sunday night at Le Diplomate. (h/t Overheard District)

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Zach Graves is moving up to become executive director of Lincoln Network, as current leader Garrett Johnson becomes chair of the board of directors. Graves previously was head of policy. Grace Meyer will move up from head of development to COO.

— Max Steele is now director of federal and political comms at Everytown for Gun Safety. He previously was at American Bridge 21st Century, and is an Amy Klobuchar and Bob Casey campaign alum.

— Ira Winkler is joining Walmart Global Tech as chief security architect. He most recently was chief information security officer at Skyline Technology Solutions, and is an NSA and HP alum and bestselling author.

— Husch Blackwell Strategies is expanding to Denver as Axiom Politics becomes HBS Colorado, the firm's eighth location around the country. Micki Hackenberger will lead the office, working with Erin Goff, Lisa LaBriola and Tamara Mohamed.

TRANSITIONS — Elizabeth "Lizzy" Leer is now digital director for Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.). She previously was digital press secretary for Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.). … Tyler Crowe is now a telecommunications policy specialist for NTIA's Office of International Affairs. He previously was at the U.S. Chamber's Global Innovation Policy Center and Motion Picture Association. … Camelback Strategy Group and Consilium Consulting have merged to form Public Square LLC, with offices in Phoenix and Alexandria. Camelback's Chad Heywood and Jon Seaton and Consilium's Kirk Adams are partners at the new venture.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Meghan Zusi, booking producer at CBSN, and James Caravano, process operator at Phillips 66, had a big wedding celebration with family and friends Friday at the Addison Park in Keyport, N.J., following a small pandemic wedding in April. The couple met online in January 2018. Pic … Another pic

— Haley Brady, deputy chief of staff for Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kan.), and Ross Olchyk, senior legislative assistant for Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.), got married this weekend in D.C., where they met in 2018. Pic … Another pic

— Molly Harris-Stevens, deputy chief of staff for Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Texas), and Gill Stevens, director of alliance development at Novo Nordisk, had a vow renewal Saturday in Oxford, Miss., after being married last December. Pic … Instapics … SPOTTED: John Shimkus (who gave the prayer before dinner), John Cummins, Matt Hoekstra, Seth Waugh, Dwayne Carson, Greta Joynes, Chris Sarley, Luke Hatzis, Jen Daulby, Jimmy and Cassie Ballard, Jake Olson and Ashley Phelps.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Charles Klug III, white collar and government investigations associate at Davis Polk & Wardwell and a John Ratcliffe alum, and Amy Simon Klug, commercial real estate associate at King & Spalding, welcomed Charles Edward Klug IV on Wednesday night. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack … Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) and Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) … Mo Elleithee of Georgetown University's Institute of Politics and Public Service ... Smash Strategies' Stephenie Foster … Todd S. Purdum … Jeffrey Schneider of The Lead PR … Trish Regan … America Rising's Allan Blutstein … Brian Baenig … former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke … NBC's Haley Talbot … Michael D. Smith of the My Brother's Keeper Alliance and the Obama Foundation … Kyle Hauptman of the National Credit Union Association … Becca Siegel of the White House (3-0) … Lizzie Gregory … David Eisner … William Todd … Joe Rozek … Consumer Healthcare Products Association's David Spangler … Precision's Matt Creeden … Peter Ogburn … Martin Whitmer … Ruth Wedgwood … Joel Greenblatt ... Google's Riva Sciuto … Alec Zender … Viviana Hurtado … Amy Mitchell … Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried … Alexandra Seymour … Gillum Ferguson … Tara Rigler

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