🤫 Rich tax may flunk

Plus: Progressives target Taylor Greene | Monday, October 25, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Toyota   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Oct 25, 2021 Welcome back to Sneak. 📅 Join Axios' Erica Pandey on Wednesday at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event about the keys to breaking down traditional barriers in education and what's next for career readiness. Guests include Guild Education CEO & co-founder Rachel Carlson and Education Design Lab CEO & founder Kathleen deLaski. Register. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,429 words ... 5.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: Rich tax may flunk Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   The "billionaire tax" and other revenues Democrats want to pay for President Biden's $2 trillion social safety net expansion are about to face a math test from a notoriously hard grader: the Joint Committee on Taxation. Why it matters: The budget reconciliation instructions require the Senate Finance Committee to offset all the spending it authorizes with the same amount of revenue. Hot air from House and Senate leaders about pay-fors will be replaced by the joint committee's cold arithmetic — and the result is in doubt, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. By the numbers: The tax rate increases on corporations, capital gains and wealthy taxpayers that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) opposes would have raised up to $850 billion in new revenue. To help offset that loss: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi estimated a proposal to tax billionaires' liquid assets could raise $200 billion to $250 billion over 10 years. Imposing a so-called minimum book tax on corporations, which Sinema might also accept, would capture another $150 billion. Another big-ticket item, and one Sinema has not previously opposed — $700 billion in additional revenue from increased IRS enforcement — can't officially be used to offset the Finance Committee's spending under the reconciliation instructions. What they're saying: "JCT is where tax theory meets scoring reality," said Eric Ueland, a longtime Senate staffer and former Trump administration official. "When it comes to the reconciliation process, JCT won't be handing out any easy scores to help provisions make it through the budget minefield." Flashback: In February, the Senate parliamentarian dashed Democratic hopes of including a minimum wage increase in Biden $1.9 trillion COVID-relief bill. The JCT — a committee of five House and Senate members that works in conjunction with the Senate parliamentarian and Congressional Budget Office — is poised to play a similar role now. It has the power to effectively nix any proposal that doesn't add up, leaving some senators sweating. Between the lines: Many of the priorities in Biden's reconciliation bill — the enhanced child tax credit, tax incentives for clean energy, paid family leave, home care subsidies and Medicare and Medicaid subsidies — must be reviewed by the Finance Committee and fully offset with revenues. Spending that's being authorized by other committees doesn't face the same requirement. That includes new programs for child care and education reviewed by the Senate Committee on Health, Education and Labor and Pensions, or climate provisions passing through the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Keep reading.     2. Biden aims to soften Trump policy U.S. asylum-seekers wait for donated food in Mexico. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images   The Biden administration will restart President Trump's "Remain in Mexico" program in mid-November — but this time, it's considering offering vaccines to asylum-seekers waiting for a chance to immigrate, Axios' Stef Kight has learned. Why it matters: One of Biden's big campaign promises was to end the program. He did — temporarily. Now, under court order, it's resuming, so the administration is working to make it more humane, and mollify activists who complain he's not trying hard enough to end it. Efforts to both end and improve the controversial program are reflective of internal administration factions, one official said. Some immigration officials see a more humane version of Remain in Mexico as a good option to handle the still-large numbers of migrants crossing the border. Others — along with many advocacy groups — want nothing to do with the program, which has raised serious humanitarian concerns. The Department of Homeland Security has indicated it will soon try again to end the policy. The details: Starting mid-November, migrants will be returned to Mexico under the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), likely through seven ports of entry across California, Arizona and Texas, two government officials familiar with internal plans told Axios. Officials are preparing to handle as many as 175 asylum cases per day at makeshift courts being built in Laredo and Brownsville, Texas. More than 70,000 migrants are estimated to have been placed in MPP between early 2019 and Biden's ending of the policy this year. Officials may provide enrolled asylum seekers with the coronavirus vaccine — although the administration cannot require it. A DHS official told Axios that internal memos and discussions regarding implementation are "not to be considered final." Immigration officials have already been offering the vaccine to migrants who've crossed the border and are in U.S. custody. About 30% to 40% decline getting the shot — not far off from the general U.S. population, according to another DHS official. What they're saying: "The administration is currently under a court order requiring it to reimplement MPP in good faith, which it will abide by even as it vigorously contests the ruling," DHS spokesperson Marsha Espinosa said in a statement to Axios. "As stated previously, the department will soon be issuing a new memo explaining and reaffirming its decision to terminate MPP." Keep reading.     3. By the numbers: Leaving House Data: House Press Gallery; Table: Danielle Alberti/Axios Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.) is the latest House lawmaker to announce he won't seek re-election next year, bringing the total number of Democratic retirements to 13, compared to nine Republicans. Why it matters: The increasing number of Democratic retirements — put against the backdrop of the president's sagging approval ratings and uncertainty about redistricting — is adding to concerns the party may not be able to keep its slim majority in the House, writes Axios' Alayna Treene. Driving the news: Axios is tracking the House retirements as the midterm election cycle ramps up. We will update this chart regularly. By the numbers: Democrats: Seven Democratic House members will retire in 2022 [see chart]. Six are seeking other offices: Anthony Brown (MD-04) — Running for Maryland attorney general Conor Lamb (PA-17) — Running for Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat Val Demings (FL-10) — Running for Florida U.S. Senate seat Tim Ryan (OH-13) — Running for Ohio U.S. Senate seat Charlie Crist (FL-13) — Running for governor of Florida Karen Bass (CA-37) — Running for mayor of Los Angeles Republicans: Three Republican House members will retire next year [see chart]. Six are seeking other offices: Lee Zeldin (NY-1) — Running for governor of New York Billy Long (MO-7) — Running for Missouri U.S. Senate seat Vicky Hartzler (MO-4) — Running for Missouri U.S. Senate seat Mo Brooks (AL-5) — Running for Alabama U.S. Senate seat Ted Budd (NC-3) — Running for North Carolina U.S. Senate seat Jody Hice (GA-10) — Running for Georgia secretary of state     A message from Toyota The new EV tax proposal runs counter to battling climate change     The proposal only allows electric vehicles (EVs) made by workers who have joined a union to get an extra tax incentive. The idea: An EV isn't better for the environment based on which American autoworkers made it — getting cleaner vehicles on the road and less carbon in the air should be the priority.     4. Progressives target Taylor Greene Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images   A progressive group is using Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) as a test case for a law that's supposed to restrict the use of outside money in shaping the legislative process, Axios' Lachlan Markey and Alexi McCammond have learned. Why it matters: New complaints against Greene by End Citizens United have broader implications for a new breed of conservative lawmakers whose identity is built around their reputations as provocateurs rather than achievements as legislators. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) said he "built my staff around comms rather than legislation" shortly after taking office. "If you aren't making news, you aren't governing," Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said last year. Driving the news: ECU has filed complaints with the Federal Election Commission and the Office of Congressional Ethics. They point to a series of ads run by Greene's campaign and her leadership PAC, which encourage supporters to call members of Congress to oppose infrastructure funding legislation. The Save America Stop Socialism PAC has spent between $15,000 and $20,000 running the ads on Facebook and Instagram, where they've been viewed as many as 4.6 million times, according to Facebook's political ad archive. ECU says this practice runs afoul of a federal law banning the use of any outside money to conduct official congressional business. "Using her leadership PAC in an attempt to get around federal law and regulations is both unethical and illegal," the group said in a statement. What they're saying: "This is a frivolous complaint from a partisan political organization masquerading as some kind of watchdog group," Greene's office told Axios. "This is just another tactic straight out of the Democrats' communist playbook." How we got here: Greene was stripped of her committee assignments a month after taking office, after being condemned for past endorsements of conspiracy theories and violent rhetoric against Democrats. That's neutered her ability to shape legislation. None of the 15 bills she's sponsored this year has made it out of committee. Nonetheless, she's attracted media attention and raised massive sums for her political operation with red-meat appeals to far-right supporters. She's used taxpayer funds to send out mail pieces calling for Biden's impeachment. While not overtly political, the messaging tracks with paid ads run by Greene's campaign.     5. Pic du jour: Pike peak Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images   President Biden crosses an athletic field in Plainfield, N.J., before visiting a school.     A message from Toyota This new EV tax proposal isn't prioritizing climate change     U.S. automakers and lawmakers agree that consumer incentives will help make electric vehicles (EVs) accessible, getting more EVs on the road and less carbon in the air. The challenge: The new EV tax proposal doesn't help America reach its climate goals. Learn why.   📬 Thanks for reading. 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