Monday, October 25, 2021

Axios Markets: Sigh of relief

Plus: Rising wages and FTX's CEO on NFTs | Monday, October 25, 2021
 
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Axios Markets
By Kate Marino ·Oct 25, 2021

🍁 Good morning and welcome to Monday! Hope you all had a fabulous fall weekend.

⚡️Stat of the day: More than 625 million shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp, the SPAC that's meant to buy former President Trump's yet-to-launch social media company, traded on Thursday and Friday.

  • That's 20 times the total number of shares outstanding. Read more.

⏱ Today's newsletter is 903 words, a 3.5-minute read.

 
 
1 big thing: Q3 earnings are on a roll

Data: FactSet; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

Investors heading into third-quarter earnings season were uneasy. And with good reason — if Q2 was marked by reopening euphoria, Q3 was marked by the Delta variant.

What's happening: Companies are pretty much still killing it. There are exceptions of course — but with 23% of third-quarter S&P 500 reports in, the rare earnings misses so far are conspicuous.

Why it matters: After the S&P shed more than 5% earlier this month, many wondered if the market was on the cusp of a correction — and if a negative surprise during earnings season could help tip it in that direction.

What they're saying: "There were a lot of concerns going into earnings season around supply chain disruptions and how that would impact margins, transportation and energy costs, and labor availability and cost," Grant Bowers, portfolio manager for Franklin Equity Group, tells Axios.

  • "I think the market is generally a bit relieved at how well companies are dealing with these pressures," he says.

It sure is. The Dow and S&P were back at record highs by the end of last week.

By the numbers: So far, 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported better than expected earnings per share, and 75% reported a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet.

  • The blended (actual plus estimates) year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P is now 32.7%.

State of play: Big companies are winning the margins game.

  • Average margins across the S&P are tracking at 12.5%, the third-highest on record, FactSet estimates.
  • Honeywell, for example, expanded profit margins despite increased labor and materials costs.
  • "Honeywell did a really good job taking price wherever they could. They've been aggressive with bringing in inventory and finding alternative sources. And I think that's typical of what we're seeing across the board," Bowers says.

Yes, but: On the flip side, the sector with the most headwinds managing margins: consumer goods.

  • Consumer staples and consumer discretionary are two of the few sectors experiencing a year-over-year margin contraction, according to FactSet.
  • Case in point: Procter & Gamble's profit margin slid 2.6 percentage points as extra costs this quarter were more than expected. "[S]upply chain headwinds will require PG to raise prices and be more efficient to deliver on earnings," Bank of America analysts wrote in a research note.

The bottom line: The overall takeaway so far is that "the headwinds are big, but they're manageable," Bowers says.

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2. Catch up quick

Microsoft warned that Russian hackers launched another effort to infiltrate thousands of U.S. government and corporate cloud networks, but said the number of successful breaches was small. (NYT)

The latest trove of documents on the inner workings of Facebook, provided by whistleblower Frances Haugen, include details about employees' concerns that the company's algorithm fuels hate speech and violence in India. (Washington Post)

The solar power industry is facing a barrage of obstacles that have led to panel prices rising for the first time in years and delays in installations, just as the world's need for clean power has never been more acute. (Bloomberg)

PayPal says that it's not currently pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest. Shares of Pinterest jumped last week after reports that PayPal was in late-stage talks to buy the social media company. (CNBC)

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3. Wage ladder
Data: NABE Business Conditions Survey; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

America's business leaders expect to keep shelling out higher wages to employees.

Driving the news: According to a new quarterly survey released today by the National Association of Business Economists, a record high 58% of respondents increased pay at their firms during the third quarter — and nearly the same share expects to do so again in the coming months.

Why it matters: Strong demand in the U.S. economy is underpinning rising wages as well as continued hiring plans on the part of business leaders.

State of play: 30% of respondents say that employment at their firms rose during Q2, with just 7% reporting that it fell.

  • Nearly a third expect their overall employment to continue rising in the next three months.

Go deeper.

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A message from OurCrowd

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4. FTX CEO mystified by value of NFTs
FTX founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried

Screenshot: "Axios on HBO"

 

Crypto exchange FTX, valued last week at $25 billion, recently launched an NFT marketplace by selling an image of the word "Test" for $270,000.

  • FTX founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried tells "Axios on HBO" that he doesn't quite understand the appeal, but adds that he doesn't personally appreciate many visual arts.

The NFT industry is currently dominated by OpenSea, but both FTX and rival exchange CoinBase are hoping to grab big pieces of the pie.

The bottom line: The value of NFTs is in the eye of the beholder.

View the "Axios on HBO" clip.

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5. What we're watching this week
Illustration of hands holding binoculars.

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

 

It's all about Big Tech.

The five largest companies in the S&P 500 — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet — are set to report this week.

Why it matters: These heavyweights will overshadow most of the other 150+ reporting companies, in what will be the busiest earnings week of the quarter.

  • We should hear more about labor and supply chain issues from Amazon, and how Apple projects the chip shortage to affect its production, Franklin's Bowers says.

Context: Snap set the tone for tech volatility last week with its forecast that supply chain issues would crimp digital advertisers' spending — and that Apple's latest iOS privacy updates were also disrupting the ad business.

  • Snap's stock sank 25% on the news, and Alphabet, Facebook and Twitter (which also reports this week) were down as well.

Meanwhile, a new round of Facebook whistleblower documents isn't going to make the social media giant's investor call any easier.

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Cymptom won "Best Cybersecurity Startup Product" at this year's Global InfoSec Awards.

See the possibility of Cymptom.

 

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