Monday, October 25, 2021

☕️ New meme stock

How Facebook stumbled in its biggest market...
October 25, 2021 View Online | Sign Up

Morning Brew

HelloFresh

Good morning. It truly is a Happy Monday, because today you can get your hands on never-before-seen Brew swag.

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Neal Freyman

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MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

15,090.20

S&P

4,544.90

Dow

35,677.02

10-Year

1.649%

Bitcoin

$60,884.99

Amazon

$3,335.55

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 8:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The major US stock indexes are riding at or close to record highs as investors face a torrent of Big Tech earnings this week. It'll be a crucial test for companies like Amazon, which started the pandemic hot but have failed to keep up that momentum.
  • Economy: President Biden invited two key senators—Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin—to his Delaware home over the weekend to hammer out the final details of a social spending plan. Democrats are attempting to compromise on a slimmed-down framework of that bill so it and the bipartisan infrastructure bill can move forward before Biden jets off to Europe later this week for two summits.

TECH

How Facebook Stumbled In Its Biggest Market

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg shake hands

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg shake hands (SUSANA BATES/AFP via Getty Images

More people use Facebook's platforms in India than in any other country—over 340 million are on Facebook and almost 400 million use its messaging service, WhatsApp. Leaked internal research shows that the company has struggled to root out misinformation and abusive content in the country, fueling violent ethnic conflicts.

One example: In 2019, FB employees set up a dummy account to explore how a new user in India experiences Facebook.

  • When violence erupted in the disputed region of Kashmir, leading to the death of more than 40 Indian soldiers, the account's feed was flooded with a "near constant barrage of polarizing nationalist content, misinformation, and violence and gore," one employee wrote.
  • "I've seen more images of dead people in the past three weeks than I've seen in my entire life total," a researcher said of the experiment.

This episode and others like it reveal that for all the criticism directed at Facebook for fomenting polarization in the US...its effects on the political climate in lower-income countries, such as India, is far worse, the WaPo writes.

One challenge for moderating content in India is the sheer number of languages used there. The country has 22 officially recognized languages, but Facebook's AI systems are trained on just five, which makes flagging harmful content much more difficult. Facebook told the WaPo it's increased its investment in moderation over the past two years in countries most vulnerable to conflict and violence.

For Facebook, winter is coming

If you opened up a newspaper over the weekend, then you probably saw a barrage of stories bashing Facebook. Roughly two dozen outlets have published—or plan to publish—a batch of reports based on documents leaked by whistleblower Frances Haugen.

And as it gears up to report its Q3 earnings today, the company is prepping for more blowback. "We need to steel ourselves for more bad headlines in the coming days, I'm afraid," Facebook VP of Global Affairs Nick Clegg wrote in a Saturday post to staffers obtained by Axios.

+ For more: Inside the big Facebook leak.

        

RETAIL

Clear Eyes, Full Wallets, Can't Lose

You may be grumbling to your friends about inflation, but higher prices haven't stopped you from shelling out $11 for a burrito, reports the WSJ.

Recent statements from companies that have hiked prices show that even in this inflationary environment, many consumers are in a cushy enough position to grin and bear it.

A few examples:

  • The allure of a Chiptole burrito, even if a few nickels more expensive, has never been stronger. Higher menu prices helped the restaurant chain more than double its net income last quarter from a year ago.
  • P&G, the maker of Tide and Old Spice, will launch its third round of price increases over the next few months...and expects profitably to increase.

Perhaps this statement from the CFO of supermarket giant Kroger sums it up best: "We've been very comfortable with our ability to pass on the increases that we've seen at this point."

Big picture: The resilience of the American consumer has been one of the most surprising outcomes of the pandemic, and its imbalance with available inventory is a primary driver of supply chain bottlenecks. Americans just won't stop buying stuff.

        

SOCIAL MEDIA

Trump's Media Company Is the Latest Meme Stock

Former President Trump waving at a rally

Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images

Former President Trump announced he was creating a new media venture last Wednesday and since then, the share price of a company that's taking it public has been on a ride reminiscent of GameStop and AMC in the early days of 2021.

Digital World Acquisition Corp., which is a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company), soared from $9.96/share before the announcement to $94.20—a jump of 846%. Even in the wild world of SPACs, that's an unhinged rally, and it reflects heightened interest among retail traders looking to make a quick buck.

  • The implied value of the new company is now more than $8.2 billion. Since Trump appears to own more than 50% of the enterprise, according to SEC docs, it would make him the richest he's ever been.

Quick reminder: A SPAC is a shell company that's formed with the goal of acquiring other companies and taking them public. It's been an increasingly popular way for companies to list their shares on the public market—WeWork just went public via SPAC last week.

What is Trump's new company? It's a social media platform called "Truth Social" and...that's about all we know. No CEO was mentioned, and neither were any financial metrics. A press release said the company is planning a launch early next year.

"This appears to be a shell company buying a shell company," Axios's dealmaking reporter Dan Primack wrote.

        

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GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

A sign in California reads "standing water, reduce speed" amid deluge

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Stat: Last week, Sacramento, CA, recorded its first 0.01 inches of rain since March 19—a record 222 days without precipitation. That changed in a big way yesterday, when a potentially historic "atmospheric river" began to pummel Northern California with rain and snow.

Quote: "Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It's happening."

Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter and Square, tweeted this semi-apocalyptic take around higher prices. Many economists replied that even though prices are rising faster than expected, hyperinflation—which has only occurred dozens of times throughout history and destroys economies—is not happening in the US.

Quick read: Four theories of why Hollywood started making sequels in 1999. (Derek Thompson)

        

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Artists paint a mural ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow

Artists paint a mural ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow (Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Climate summit: The COP26 climate summit hosted by the UN will kick off in Glasgow, Scotland, on Sunday. COP26's president, Alok Sharma, has called it a "make or break" moment in the battle to confront climate change.

Earnings: The motherload of earnings reports is dropping this week—30% of all S&P 500 companies will tell investors how they fared in Q3, including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Coca-Cola, Boeing, McDonald's, and many more. Analysts expect these reports to test the stock market's latest rally.

Vaccines, but rated G: An FDA panel will debate on Tuesday whether to recommend authorizing Pfizer's vaccine for kids age 5–11. Kids could start receiving shots in the first two weeks of November, Dr. Fauci said.

Everything else…

  • Speaking of Halloween, it's happening on Sunday.
  • Facebook could announce its new name at its Connect Conference on Thursday.
  • The World Series, pitting the Houston Astros against the Atlanta Braves, starts Tuesday.
        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Saudi Arabia pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060, but made no plans to wind down fossil fuel production, which forms the backbone of its economy.
  • Colombia captured its most wanted drug trafficker, Dairo Antonio Úsuga, in a jungle raid.
  • Evergrande, the Chinese real estate giant that's saddled with more than $300 billion in debt, has restarted work on more than 10 projects in an attempt to shore up investor confidence.
  • Shiba Inu, which has been called a "decentralized meme token" by its creator, has soared to become the 11th-biggest cryptocurrency by market value.

BREW'S BETS

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Nourish your brain: Farnam Street's Sunday Brain Food newsletter is exactly what it sounds like—actionable ideas and insights to help you become the best version of yourself. Check it out.

Dive back into the week:

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GAMES

The Puzzle Section

New game alert: You're gonna love this new puzzle, which asks you to pluck words from a jumble of letters. We're calling it...drumroll please...Turntable. Play Turntable now.

Judge a Book by Its Cover

Below is a set of famous book covers with the titles and authors removed. Can you identify them?

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ANSWER

1. Twilight
2. The Da Vinci Code
3. The Hunger Games
4. The Great Gatsby
5. A Series of Unfortunate Events: The Bad Beginning
6. Dune

HOW WAS TODAY'S NEWSLETTER?

GREAT GOOD BAD
         

Written by Neal Freyman

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